Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I don’t know what to make of this cause it’s so far different than all the models, even euro ai. Either euro will score a huge coup or will go down in flames on this one. 

save your self time and energy. Take the least snowiest model and go with that...and that will be the most likely outcome

[Ji]

42 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So far nothing too remarkable.   It is slight flatter in front at H5 compared to 6z so far.  But not into the money panels yet

can you stop doing play by play. Everytime you do it--the euro sucks ass. 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

wxbell

12Z Euro SV 10:1 is much different in many areas, including DC where it has 2” vs almost nothing on WB Kuchera. Opinions? Does it make sense that Kuchera would be much lighter there? Are temps that borderline?

 

[bncho]

North Carolina is STILL scoring in March 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, GaWx said:

SV 10:1 is much different in many areas, including DC where it has 2” vs almost nothing on WB Kuchera. Opinions?

 

The SV maps are a decent match for precip but generally the common wisdom is WxBell ptype depiction is better. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

Have no good reason for it but I feel good about this one. We're still very much in ensemble range and I believe those have been trending in the right direction. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

[DDweatherman]

Hate on ji but least snowiest model until otherwise noted is the right strategy. 

[WEATHER53]

Don’t know what king model showed but differences this time is whether or not each one of the models each run shows that high to our north.Yes=Snow 

[NorthArlington101]

12z EPS is a fairly significant step backward on the snow mean side of the house. Will update this post with a map once it's finished.

[winter_warlock]

23 minutes ago, bncho said:

North Carolina is STILL scoring in March 

 Well that won't even look like that by the time March gets here 

[Ji]

12z EPS is a fairly significant step backward on the snow mean side of the house. Will update this post with a map once it's finished.

Dont bother. Nobody wants to see a map that went the wrong way

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z EPS is a fairly significant step backward on the snow mean side of the house. Will update this post with a map once it's finished.

 Not really for here, but yes for NJ

[WEATHER53]

So from 0-10” once again which will score a confirmation.

The hope for AI is that there is some historical analog data in it of set ups and outcomes. Pretending it’s all math and physics is why we have all this erratic behavior.  Low pressure systems around mid Atlantic in winter are just too difficult for conventional models.  AI and outcome analog data is the proof in the pudding and hope for the future 

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 Not really for here, but yes for NJ

? we went from a mean of nearly 4" regionwide to this

[stormy]

Look at the Euro at 2100 Sunday.  100 east of Hatteras, then OTS.

Look at the GGEM, Newborn to Norfolk while plastering west of 95.

It doesn't often fail as I suggested earlier today.   This is NOT the final solution but it is decent of the 12z Canadian.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[winter_warlock]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

Dont bother. Nobody wants to see a map that went the wrong way

I agree.  Don't post it 

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

? we went from a mean of nearly 4" regionwide to this

Wasn’t using wxbell, different algos I guess. Probably the big dogs got knocked off this ensemble set

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wasn’t using wxbell, different algos I guess. Probably the big dogs got knocked off this ensemble set

Took about an inch off the median. I'd guess this is all shot a scattershot of the IVT

[mitchnick]

Canadian ensembles fwiw

[Ji]

Canadian ensembles fwiw

They stink. Next

[Ji]

Took about an inch off the median. I'd guess this is all shot a scattershot of the IVT

Don’t forget to show us a screen shot of the median

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Canadian ensembles fwiw

Leads me to believe the opp run was a one off. Still plenty of time though. 

[Ji]

Leads me to believe the opp run was a one off. Still plenty of time though. 

Plenty of time for it to get worse

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Plenty of time for it to get worse

Yes and no. It'll get better again before it gets worse.

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Don’t forget to show us a screen shot of the median

It's okay - I've heard through the grapevine the Navy model was a bomb

[Ji]

the Euro AI only works when there is no snow involved. When it comes to snow---its no better than the nogaps

[mappy]

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

@Weather Will just can't help himself. 

It’s soo bad lol

1 hour ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Instead of posting this twice, add some information about the model and why it isn’t showing you digital snow 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the Euro AI only works when there is no snow involved. When it comes to snow---its no better than the nogaps

This is true of the Euro also... when it's Dr. no it's great but when it shows snow it isn't.  

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

It’s soo bad lol

Instead of posting this twice, add some information about the model and why it isn’t showing you digital snow 

He has been doing this regularly for weeks now in both the Central PA and the Philly threads. He's been asked to stop and and even coached to make better posts. Unfortunately, this is what he continues to do. The vast majority of posters in those 2 subs now have him on ignore. 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

He has been doing this regularly for weeks now in both the Central PA and the Philly threads. He's been asked to stop and and even coached to make better posts. Unfortunately, this is what he continues to do. The vast majority of posters in those 2 subs now have him on ignore. 

Some people just don’t learn