Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z GEFS says what storm....

Thankfully it’s the gfs and is a horrid model. It still shows over .25” qpf in the period 

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z GEFS says what storm....

Good thing the GFS is below the JMA. 

[TSSN+]

Euro ai out shortly. Let’s see if it holds. 

[GATECH]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

why am i getting march 2001 vibes

Keep March 2001 out of your mouth....or I am sending Will Smith!   I was getting Feb 9-10 2010 vibes....

[Weather Will]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Thankfully it’s the gfs and is a horrid model. It still shows over .25” qpf in the period 

I was just going to post we only really need to see what the EURO suite says.  But remember 6Z EURO was just ok.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

I was just going to post we only really need to see what the EURO suite says.  But remember 6Z EURO was just ok.

Seeing how the euro been slowly stepping better I’m more focused on the euro ai over the op 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro ai out shortly. Let’s see if it holds. 

im sure it wont. 

[bncho]

Euro Ai running now

[bncho]

It won't be as good as 6z, but it is still very good!

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro Ai running now

it looks like it has good precip but not like 6z

[BristowWx]

Just now, Ji said:

it looks like it has good precip but not like 6z

where is the low?

[bncho]

Just now, bncho said:

It won't be as good as 6z, but it is still very good!

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

It won't be as good as 6z, but it is still very good!

Ya it’s still a solid hit. Expect some bounces back and forth but looks good to me. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

That’ll work 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

ouch. thats pretty bad. You made it sound like it was going to be good

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

ouch. thats pretty bad. You made it sound like it was going to be good

F off 

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

8+ and SNE doesn’t get 24. Good run in my book.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

F off 

i dont like any runs where i lose a foot--so hit block/ignore if you need

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z AI compared to 6Z; I'll take it!

 

[LP08]

Pretty big change at 108 for the strength of the SW.  

[stormtracker]

Euro almost carbon copy so far of 6z

[TSSN+]

Just now, LP08 said:

Pretty big change at 108 for the strength of the SW.  

To be expected. It seems to be bouncing back and forth each run from tucked bomb to a little more east low. But of the down run is 10-12 across the area then I can work with that. Lol

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Euro almost carbon copy so far of 6z

Ji needs 12" more so he doesn't freak out. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

To be expected. It seems to be bouncing back and forth each run from tucked bomb to a little more east low. But of the down run is 10-12 across the area then I can work with that. Lol

Yeah the synoptics hasn’t really changed much from 06z to 12z on euro ai. Trough is bit broader, but noise at range. Could result in large sfc differences.

And btw, this has always been a miller B from the start. Never was a true miller A

[mitchnick]

Snows for a long time with some pretty low heights. Makes me wonder about decent rates being possible post 126hrs that could boost ratios over 10:1.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont like any runs where i lose a foot--so hit block/ignore if you need

You didn't lose anything. You never had it, and you don't have what's on this run. These are simulations. Yes I know you live for the digital snow. Instant gratification or disappointment.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

You didn't lose anything. You never had it, and you don't have what's on this run. These are simulations. Yes I know you live for the digital snow. Instant gratification or disappointment.

He's pissed he can't keep posting click bait maps on FB.

[aldie 22]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

He's pissed he can't keep posting click bait maps on FB.

He might have to up his patreon charge to six cents a day just to cover the bills

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah the synoptics hasn’t really changed much from 06z to 12z on euro ai. Trough is bit broader, but noise at range. Could result in large sfc differences.

And btw, this has always been a miller B from the start. Never was a true miller A

So a Miller B just (potentially) further south?

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, Ji said:

why am i getting march 2001 vibes

I posted some of our biggest snows and busts side by side once with the date removed and no one could tell them apart.  March 2001 was one of the busts.  The setup is often the same between a big hit and a bust and luck with minor factors tip things one way or the other.