Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[bncho]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Now THIS is how you thread the needle! 

Plus everything that shows snow is below 32! So any rain output might be wet snow before the alledged flip!

[MN Transplant]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did a much too early check of GFS soundings and it’s only a very shallow area of above freezing temps. Like 975-980mb and below. Still don’t really want 34-35F at 2pm in late February though…

That's a unique sounding

[Snowman.]

Holy crap UKMET is a nuke.

[bncho]

[Jake Wx]

like this run from the ukie 

[LeesburgWx]

Ok, I've seen enough. I am ALL-IN!

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

That's a unique sounding

How do you even get this sounding? What sort of meteorological setup gets you this? 

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

[WesternFringe]

Anyone have the kuchie for the Ukie?

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Looks like NYC is screwed.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

If you just toggle all the op runs on TT it's pretty crazy the agreement for low position around 138 hours.   

[SnowenOutThere]

[mitchnick]

Kuchera Ukie

[mitchnick]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Kuchera Ukie

 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ya I think a 978mb low would do the trick Chuck 

[Amped]

Ukmet just basically keeps a closed 500mb low from the Dakotas to off the Delmarva.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

We get it....we all know how this can fail for us, but what do you expect us to do?  Not track the storm with the models showing a foot of snow for us?  Where's the fun in that?  Let us enjoy this, most likely the last big chance of the year.  If it fails it fails so be it, but we're still in the game as of 12z. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya I think a 978mb low would do the trick Chuck 

in fairness this is a setup where I feel a LOT better here than around DC 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Ukmet just basically keeps a closed 500mb low from the Dakotas to off the Delmarva.

March 58

[bncho]

If we end off with a Euro AI solution, this winter gets at least an A- from me. This year could've also had two 12+" snowstorms that just didn't work out, too!

[North Balti Zen]

7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

good stuff chuck. 

[LP08]

Based on soundings (yes I'm bored and looking at UKIE soundings), its snow from HR126 and later.  Such a shallow warm nose and the surface is 33-34 to start

[MN Transplant]

We can certainly do a paste-bomb, but everyone needs to calibrate their ratios appropriately

[Jake Wx]

Already hearing sun angle talks 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

We can certainly do a paste-bomb, but everyone needs to calibrate their ratios appropriately

I'm fully expecting nothing more than 7:1 ratios. especially to start, but that has its own fun! Plus the CCB deathband 50:1 ratios are coming for us

[LP08]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

We can certainly do a paste-bomb, but everyone needs to calibrate their ratios appropriately

I could see it start out 8-1 and if we get into a consolidated CCB, we have historically done ok in those with 12-1 or so.  PSU and Mappy Land will exceed that.  IF it happens at all.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

We can certainly do a paste-bomb, but everyone needs to calibrate their ratios appropriately

Oh im calibrated alright 

[Ji]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

March 58

why am i getting march 2001 vibes

[snowfan]

10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

We can certainly do a paste-bomb, but everyone needs to calibrate their ratios appropriately

This board excels at overestimating ratios. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GEFS says what storm....