bncho Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Now THIS is how you thread the needle! Plus everything that shows snow is below 32! So any rain output might be wet snow before the alledged flip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Did a much too early check of GFS soundings and it’s only a very shallow area of above freezing temps. Like 975-980mb and below. Still don’t really want 34-35F at 2pm in late February though… That's a unique sounding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Holy crap UKMET is a nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 like this run from the ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Ok, I've seen enough. I am ALL-IN! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: That's a unique sounding How do you even get this sounding? What sort of meteorological setup gets you this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, bncho said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Anyone have the kuchie for the Ukie? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Looks like NYC is screwed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 If you just toggle all the op runs on TT it's pretty crazy the agreement for low position around 138 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Kuchera Ukie 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, mitchnick said: Kuchera Ukie 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Ya I think a 978mb low would do the trick Chuck 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Ukmet just basically keeps a closed 500mb low from the Dakotas to off the Delmarva. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: We get it....we all know how this can fail for us, but what do you expect us to do? Not track the storm with the models showing a foot of snow for us? Where's the fun in that? Let us enjoy this, most likely the last big chance of the year. If it fails it fails so be it, but we're still in the game as of 12z. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya I think a 978mb low would do the trick Chuck in fairness this is a setup where I feel a LOT better here than around DC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Ukmet just basically keeps a closed 500mb low from the Dakotas to off the Delmarva. March 58 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 If we end off with a Euro AI solution, this winter gets at least an A- from me. This year could've also had two 12+" snowstorms that just didn't work out, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: good stuff chuck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Based on soundings (yes I'm bored and looking at UKIE soundings), its snow from HR126 and later. Such a shallow warm nose and the surface is 33-34 to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 We can certainly do a paste-bomb, but everyone needs to calibrate their ratios appropriately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Already hearing sun angle talks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: We can certainly do a paste-bomb, but everyone needs to calibrate their ratios appropriately I'm fully expecting nothing more than 7:1 ratios. especially to start, but that has its own fun! Plus the CCB deathband 50:1 ratios are coming for us 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: We can certainly do a paste-bomb, but everyone needs to calibrate their ratios appropriately I could see it start out 8-1 and if we get into a consolidated CCB, we have historically done ok in those with 12-1 or so. PSU and Mappy Land will exceed that. IF it happens at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: We can certainly do a paste-bomb, but everyone needs to calibrate their ratios appropriately Oh im calibrated alright 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: March 58 why am i getting march 2001 vibes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: We can certainly do a paste-bomb, but everyone needs to calibrate their ratios appropriately This board excels at overestimating ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 WB 0Z GEFS says what storm.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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