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Presidents' day Snow potential


WeatherGeek2025
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Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

For people like myself that like a long duration winter with a solid snow pack, but also realize that I do have a breaking point, Oneonta New York would be my sweet spot.

They average about 85 inches of snow per season. January and February average temperatures are about 20 to 22°. They get fringe squalls off the lake that drop an inch or two sometimes three at various times to freshen things up. They are close enough to Albany that they can still can cash in on some Noreasters and almost always cash in on any Miller B's and clippers. 
 

Having been through several winters that fell within that range of 70 to 100", usually by the end of March in those winters I'm ready for spring. 

You dont have to worry about parking up there. 

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So far, the NAM, NAM3km, RRFSA, ICON, HRW-FV3, RGEM and HRRR are all a bit snowier than 6Z, solidifying the likely 1-2" (with 3" in some areas where the best banding sets up) from Philly-Toms River up to a bit N of 80, IMO.  Hopefully, we see the same for the GFS/Euro/UK/CMC and the AI models.  

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48 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

For people like myself that like a long duration winter with a solid snow pack, but also realize that I do have a breaking point, Oneonta New York would be my sweet spot.

They average about 85 inches of snow per season. January and February average temperatures are about 20 to 22°. They get fringe squalls off the lake that drop an inch or two sometimes three at various times to freshen things up. They are close enough to Albany that they can still can cash in on some Noreasters and almost always cash in on any SWFE and clippers. 
 

Having been through several winters that fell within that range of 70 to 100", usually by the end of March in those winters I'm ready for spring. 

The I-88 corridor would be my perfect area as well. They get coastal storms as snow, some lake effect but not feet at a time and overall the best of winter. But other than snow very little to do or going on there. 

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31 minutes ago, RU848789 said:
Nice jump up on the UK...(and a small bump up on the CMC, which looks just like the RGEM, of course).
Image

This isnt far from a few inches here in Brooklyn. Hopefully we see more ticks by tonight.  

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29 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I've noticed that HRRR often does that on an off run after a major run. Looks good on the 18z run and then much different on the 19z run. It'll prob go back north on the next run. 

Back north 

hrrr-philly-total_snow_10to1-1243200.png

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How do you figure?

The models are showing snow falling. Not accumulating. I don't know that it makes it down to 32 tonight in NYC. Maybe it does. But what is the timing? How much time between when the snow starts falling and us getting to 32 is there? An hour? Two? 

Maybe an inch and a half falls. But I doubt CPK measures anything above half an inch.

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42 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I think the snow will have trouble accumulating on the old snow pack, especially since temperatures are now falling back towards freezing.  The new snow will rapidly melt the old snow.

/social commentary 

I was 99.85% sure this was sarcasm, but I was waiting for someone smarter than me to laugh first.  Thanks Nibor.

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