2/15-16: Slopocalypse or Bust

[LeesburgWx]

Gfs is a Loudoun Special. I’m back in.

[LordBaltimore]

8 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

You said it was fools gold but then said the NWS was wrong and the CAD was underdone.  But if the CAD was underdone then it gives more credence to the Euro AI solution vs the rainier physics based model solutions.  Your two posts together make no sense.

Lastly, the Euro AI has the highest verification scores on the planet right now.  So your comment about it not being ready for primetime makes no sense to me either.

verification scores on the placement of global 500mb anomalies don't mean much for events like this. None of these models are verified based on ptype 

[CAPE]

The LP is a weakling. Not gonna work in this setup with marginal cold. A couple inches in the favored areas looks to be the upside.

[WesternFringe]

2 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

verification scores on the placement of global 500mb anomalies don't mean much for events like this. None of these models are verified based on ptype 

But he said the CAD was underdone, which would lend credence to the ptype it was showing.

Also, the physics based models have all started to say the same thing, lending even more credence to the AI solution.

[mappy]

Didn’t know there was a chance for snow but Tommy T showing euro with snow IMBY Sunday night 

[ravensrule]

Just now, mappy said:

Didn’t know there was a chance for snow but Tommy T showing euro with snow IMBY Sunday night 

Did he show potential accumulations?. 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The LP is a weakling. Not gonna work in this setup with marginal cold. A couple inches in the favored areas looks to be the upside.

Thanks

[mappy]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Did he show potential accumulations?. 

No said it was too early to say, mentioned maybe slushy couple inches before rain 

[stormtracker]

Enjoy. I’ll be in nyc. Bf got selected for a modeling gig in NYC. I’m sacrificing. Sigh. 

[mappy]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Enjoy. I’ll be in nyc. Bf got selected for a modeling gig in NYC. I’m sacrificing. Sigh. 

Make sure he takes his umbrella and congrats to him! 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Enjoy. I’ll be in nyc. Bf got selected for a modeling gig in NYC. I’m sacrificing. Sigh. 

Umbrella company?. 

[SnowenOutThere]

I mean moist adiabatic lapse rate is around 4 degrees Fahrenheit per 1000 feet so if you're just looking to see snow and willing to drive out to the mountains/Shenandoah we are really just focusing on the 850mb and 925mb temps to be at 0 or below. As long as we have that we should be good for the mountains. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I mean moist adiabatic lapse rate is around 4 degrees Fahrenheit per 1000 feet so if you're just looking to see snow and willing to drive out to the mountains/Shenandoah we are really just focusing on the 850mb and 925mb temps to be at 0 or below. As long as we have that we should be good for the mountains. 

@EastCoast NPZ is going to get pummeled. 

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Enjoy. I’ll be in nyc. Bf got selected for a modeling gig in NYC. I’m sacrificing. Sigh. 

this is actually a legit event to use an umbrella in the snow

[stormy]

45 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

You said it was fools gold but then said the NWS was wrong and the CAD was underdone.  But if the CAD was underdone then it gives more credence to the Euro AI solution vs the rainier physics based model solutions.  Your two posts together make no sense.

Lastly, the Euro AI has the highest verification scores on the planet right now.  So your comment about it not being ready for primetime makes no sense to me either.

Hello again my friend:

I suggest that the NWS idea of limited CAD was "wrong' : This would create support for the AI solution.

The EURO AI deterministic is fine.  But the EURO AIFS ensemble is not ready for Primetime. Maybe next winter, but not this year.

[CAPE]

46 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Enjoy. I’ll be in nyc. Bf got selected for a modeling gig in NYC. I’m sacrificing. Sigh. 

Sounds fun. Enjoy it. It isn't gonna snow in the lowlands here lol. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

51 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Enjoy. I’ll be in nyc. Bf got selected for a modeling gig in NYC. I’m sacrificing. Sigh. 

Hopefully not a GFS modeling gig!!!   But seriously, have a fun time up there!!

[Ji]

of course AI is a step back. Cant ever take 2 steps forward

[Ji]

devastating step backs from the 18z runs......onto 00z---it might be time to call it by 12z tomorrow. The low pressure in the south is just so weak

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

devastating step backs from the 18z runs......onto 00z---it might be time to call it by 12z tomorrow. The low pressure in the south is just so weak

It sucks…I wanted a good rainstorm to wash away “whatever you want to call it” that’s still on the ground.

[TSSN+]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

devastating step backs from the 18z runs......onto 00z---it might be time to call it by 12z tomorrow. The low pressure in the south is just so weak

Not much different to me 

 

[bncho]

Euro AI and Euro are 1% worse, which translates to a small shift on the surface. Basically a hold.

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

Euro AI and Euro are 1% worse, which translates to a small shift on the surface. Basically a hold.

This according to JI is devastating 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

devastating step backs from the 18z runs......onto 00z---it might be time to call it by 12z tomorrow. The low pressure in the south is just so weak

Weak and south wont do it. This has always been about a strong low, which requires a damn near perfect phase at h5, and a perfect LP track, with heavy precip and dynamic cooling. A lot to ask for just to get it to snow moderately. The antecedent airmass is pretty bad.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Weak and south wont do it. This has always been about a strong low, which requires a damn near perfect phase at h5, and a perfect LP track, with heavy precip and dynamic cooling. A lot to ask for just to get it to snow moderately. The antecedent airmass is pretty bad.

The runs are actually fine. Ji on his bs 

[peribonca]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The runs are actually fine. Ji on his bs 

I actually thought the phase looked a bit better on the 18z ai-euro

[aldie 22]

39 minutes ago, Ji said:

devastating step backs from the 18z runs......onto 00z---it might be time to call it by 12z tomorrow. The low pressure in the south is just so weak

 

[NorthArlington101]

It would’ve been nice to see the euros improve but such marginal changes from their previous OP runs. See what the ens say in a sec (I’d gamble they are worse, but ya never know)

[mitchnick]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It would’ve been nice to see the euros improve but such marginal cuanhes from their previous OP runs. See what the ens say in a sec (I’d gamble they are worse, but ya never know)

Only about 1/2" less