roardog Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: It, of course, still remains to be seen whether there will actually be a super Nino. The last one was in reality 2015-6 as 2023-4 peaked at only borderline moderate/strong per RONI, which is now the official way of measuring. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. Most model progs are only of ONI. I know RONI is the “official” way to measure Enso now but it’s not perfect with the old ONI measurement. If you showed me a 500mb anomaly map of the 23-24 winter over North America, I certainly wouldn’t think moderate/ borderline strong Nino. I would think very strong Nino with a -PDO like 72-73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 16 minutes ago, roardog said: I know RONI is the “official” way to measure Enso now but it’s not perfect with the old ONI measurement. If you showed me a 500mb anomaly map of the 23-24 winter over North America, I certainly wouldn’t think moderate/ borderline strong Nino. I would think very strong Nino with a -PDO like 72-73. You need to understand why the index is reading what it does, and what it is trying to portray, just like any other index. 1972-1973 is actually a good comp given the -PDO. The only reason the RONi lagged the ONI in 2023 is because there were competing influences that actually made it warmer across the eastern US. "Weaker" is not necessarily "colder". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would argue that the 2023-2024 El Nino coupled, but it was partially masked by the prevailing west warm pool, so there was some mixed cool-ENSO like attributes to the pattern. 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You need to understand why the index is reading what it does, and what it is trying to portray, just like any other index. 1972-1973 is actually a good comp given the -PDO. The only reason the RONI lagged the ONI in 2023 is because there were competing influences that actually made it warmer across the eastern US. "Weaker" is not necessarily "colder". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think wetter and warmer than this past winter in the NE is a good guess for next season. I mean this winter was a really cold one in the east. It would be hard to duplicate it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Now that we officially moved to RONI, the funniest possible outcome is a Nino that smashes through 2.0 on RONI anyways. Still early but hard not to like all of the off-center WWBs pumping warm water volume towards the equator. It's got the potential, especially given how early it got started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 that was snark point... it takes a super dope phat bad ass nino to actually couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: "Weaker" is not necessarily "colder". Exactly. It's because the stronger ones tend to be significantly more east-based. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 23-24 didn't have super negative anomalies in the Pacific like other Strong Nino's, but ENSO mainly effects the North Pacific High 23-24 cold season did have a NPH negative anomaly, which is El Nino. I see why RONI was +1.5, as the total N. Pacific pattern wasn't very influenced by ENSO seemingly: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The super Ninos over the last 50+ years have all been east-based/East Pacific (1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98), with the exception of 2015-16, which was basin-wide. There are no Modoki super El Niños 91-92 was probably the 2nd strongest that was basin-wide or more west-based. RONI was +2.3 for 91-92. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 59 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Exactly. It's because the stronger ones tend to be significantly more east-based. Yea, weaker just allows for other influences to have more impact...which aren't necessarily cold influences. Weaker events are just colder on average because they aren't overwhelmingly strong east-based events, and thus have greater variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 paul roundy super Nino part 2? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: paul roundy super Nino part 2? Wasn't he calling for one a couple years ago? That being said it did finish in strong territory just not super, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wasn't he calling for one a couple years ago? That being said it did finish in strong territory just not super, lol TBH, we probably would have been better served if it had been a canonical super El Nino, than the strong one that was tainted with cool ENSO residue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 23 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 91-92 was probably the 2nd strongest that was basin-wide or more west-based. RONI was +2.3 for 91-92. That one was weird, and really didn't behave as an el nino, due to a major volcano. Pinatubo actually caused a temporary decrease in global temperatures. If not for that, 1992 would have probably would have been another global warmest year on record (at the time), after a 3rd strong el nino in 10 years. Pinatubo caused the summer of 1992 to be one of the coldest on record CONUS, and longer term, the cold and snowy winters of 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 in many places in the Eastern US. As for modoki el ninos, 2009-10 is probably the only strong el nino that's a modoki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 I don’t think RONI is a relevant metric for measuring El Niños since 2023-2024 had an even warmer North American atmospheric response than 1997-1998 did with a very similar 500 mb pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: I don’t think RONI is a relevant metric for measuring El Niños since 2023-2024 had an even warmer North American atmospheric response than 1997-1998 did with a very similar 500 mb pattern. Thanks for sharing. I didn’t realize how well 23-24 matches up with 97-98. I thought it was a good 72-73 match, adjusted to today’s climate. Will be interesting to see how RONI plays out this year now that it is official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 time 2 torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: My guess is that we will have a completely different stratosphere/SPV this coming winter given the anticipated +QBO/El Niño/+IOD The last 4 years, Stratosphere has been a huge hit with favored QBO state Nov-Feb. +QBO -QBO It doesn't automatically translate to AO state, although this Nov's SSW did precede more -AO conditions early to mid Winter. The last 2 March Stratosphere warmings have not lead to -NAO conditions +time. Typically Stratosphere warmings have a lag, and coolings correlate at 0-day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: As I recall, in order of most likely to least likely to have a SSWE during winter: El Niño/-QBO, La Niña/-QBO, El Niño/+QBO, La Niña/+QBO Yes, correct. Neutral/-QBO would be higher than nina/-qbo and Neutral/+QBO would be lower than nino/+qbo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: My guess is that we will have a completely different stratosphere/SPV this coming winter given the anticipated +QBO/El Niño/+IOD What about +PDO? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: @so_whats_happening You have to be searching for these types of tweets. There's no way you follow all of these people I've never heard of. lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Big time warm water is getting going in the western-subsurface. Could help to push the Nino a little further west if it stays under Nino 3.4 and surfaces Nino 4 is warming 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Gawx has pointed out that March 2026 will likely be the most +NAO month of March since 1950. Surprisingly, rolled forward to April and May is not a warm composite April May March to May 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 20 hours ago, Terpeast said: Thanks for sharing. I didn’t realize how well 23-24 matches up with 97-98. I thought it was a good 72-73 match, adjusted to today’s climate. Will be interesting to see how RONI plays out this year now that it is official. Even the ONI has been having issues due the warming baseline updating every 5 years. So a +1.5 ONI today can have the same actual SSTs and heat release to the atmosphere as a 1.7 to +2.0 ONI did back in the old days. It’s a bit like relying on departures for temperatures as the same temperature these days as the older era will have a smaller departure due to the warming baseline. This can lead to super El Niño winters in actuality like 23-24 appearing weaker on the ONI and RONI due to the warming baseline shrinking the departure. But we saw how strongly the global temperatures spiked with that event along with the warmest winter on record for the CONUS with lower ONI and RONI values than 97-98 had. The all important 500 mb atmospheric response was very close to 97-98. Plus the 23-24 event was so spread out from Nino 1+2 to just west of the dateline that the collective heat release was very impressive than just looking at the actual Nino 3.4 SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 A lot of the warmth in 23-24 Winter was from +WPO. A little harder to connect that to ENSO. Beyond that, are you saying that El Nino has an anomaly relative to global warming, or it's just global warming points - everything is warming everywhere? Does the same work in reverse for La Ninas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Big time warm water is getting going in the western-subsurface. Could help to push the Nino a little further west if it stays under Nino 3.4 and surfaces Nino 4 is warming Yea, I am not resigned to a dud-winter next season. Quite the contrary, I think we are going to need an excessively strong and eastern biased warm ENSO to counter the clear paradigm shift we have observed in the north Pacific over these past two years. I think short of that, I am going to be be inclined to favor a 2002-2003 sort of outcome. I could see it gong either way at this point, but I think a lot rides on ENSO this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 21 hours ago, bluewave said: I don’t think RONI is a relevant metric for measuring El Niños since 2023-2024 had an even warmer North American atmospheric response than 1997-1998 did with a very similar 500 mb pattern. Nothing is a very good metric for measuring anything if the index is going to be taken at face value without an understanding of what the number is trying to convey. It harkens back to what we discussed regarding WHY the RONI lagged the ONI that season.....the weaker hemispheric expression was due to the antecedent cool ENSO configuration of of the hemisphere partially masking it, which was also reflected by the -PDO. It was very similar to the 1972-1973 in that sense. This is also why the degree of warmth across the NE that winter was still redolent of a higher end el Nino. 21 hours ago, Terpeast said: Thanks for sharing. I didn’t realize how well 23-24 matches up with 97-98. I thought it was a good 72-73 match, adjusted to today’s climate. Will be interesting to see how RONI plays out this year now that it is official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Gun-to-head right now....I don't think we are going to see that warm of a result accompanying El Nino again at such a short return rate, warming background state not withstanding. We just had a super El Nino that heralded in this western-warm pool oriented regime in 2016, and then the one in 2024 which seems to have triggered a "changing of the guard" so to speak in the north Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Things that make ya go "hmmm"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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