Great Snow 1717 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You've mentioned 02-03 a few times but that was a major west-based Nino. I don't think we're going to have that orientation this year, and the Pacific is still in a -ENSO state, left over from what has been that phase generally since 2016. The Mountain West hitting >+10F anomalies for a 4-5 month period this Winter honestly scares me about cold Winter prospects next year. It should scare every winter enthusiast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You've mentioned 02-03 a few times but that was a major west-based Nino. I don't think we're going to have that orientation this year, and the Pacific is still in a -ENSO state, left over from what has been that phase generally since 2016. The Mountain West hitting >+10F anomalies for a 4-5 month period this Winter honestly scares me about cold Winter prospects next year. Doesn't have to be west-based necessarily to have that type of outcome.....basin-wide is fair game. That year was also emerging from a persistent -PDO. I've already said I don't expect next winter to be that cold, regardless, but my point is that I don't think a +5F season is a foregone conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: It should scare every winter enthusiast... I don't see what it matters if the mean pattern favors a west coast ridge and an east coast trough....that said, it doesn't need to be very cold to salvage a decent snowfall season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Every other year is the warmest winter on record nationally...I don't see this is a novel concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't see what it matters if the mean pattern favors a west coast ridge and an east coast trough....that said, it doesn't need to be very cold to salvage a decent snowfall season. EL Nino plus blocking would be ideal for the east. We just had a second favorable winter in a row in many locations in the east. Maybe the tide is turning . We did get lucky last winter with the negative NAO and the cooperate pacific. I want to see the pacific continue to improve. We need a PDO flush. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Doesn't have to be west-based necessarily to have that type of outcome.....basin-wide is fair game. That year was also emerging from a persistent -PDO. I've already said I don't expect next winter to be that cold, regardless, but my point is that I don't think a +5F season is a foregone conclusion. 02-03 had more -EPO and -WPO. You pointed out yesterday positive phases of these indexes has gone with basin-wide El Nino's, and especially east-based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Every other year is the warmest winter on record nationally...I don't see this is a novel concept. 23-24 was the only one since 2005? (I don't know, but I don't think any Winter since then beat 97-98 or 01-02). If I get a big ++NAO signal from N. Atlantic Summer SSTA's, I think warmest Winter on record could be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 March 2026 might be the most +NAO March on record since 1950. Look at how that goes with El Nino later in the year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 02-03 had more -EPO and -WPO. You pointed out yesterday positive phases of these indexes has gone with basin-wide El Nino's, and especially east-based. I did? Anyway, I'm not willing to delve in any further at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 I'm not arguing for a big winter next year...all I am trying to say is that nothing is set in stone yet. This is why I usually don't get into it this early. You end up defending a hypothetical position that you haven't even taken yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You've mentioned 02-03 a few times but that was a major west-based Nino. I don't think we're going to have that orientation this year, and the Pacific is still in a -ENSO state, left over from what has been that phase generally since 2016. The Mountain West hitting >+10F anomalies for a 4-5 month period this Winter honestly scares me about cold Winter prospects next year. Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't see what it matters if the mean pattern favors a west coast ridge and an east coast trough....that said, it doesn't need to be very cold to salvage a decent snowfall season. The ridge west, trough east alignment seems to be almost stuck. Not literally, of course it moves, but it has been dominant lately so no need to think it cant continue next winter. It was dominant for almost a decade it seemed if we look back just 11-12 years or so. And of course it goes without saying that the blazing SW is doing the heavy lifting for ranking conus winter warmth. Chuck and I have discussed, I personally dont worry about "cold" when it comes to snow. Its more about storm tracks. You can absolutely apply that to the Great Lakes and New England. Further south, of course its different. We have now had 2 cold winters in a row. With an El Nino coming Id be very surprised to see a 3rd cold winter in a row locally. The last 2 winters here have been cold and snowcovered with powder which is my favorite, but not gonna lie, with the biggest storm this winter 6.2" and biggest last winter 4.6", a milder winter would likely send more dynamic winter storms into this area. Historically its a mix, but for the last 3 decades, milder winters have produced some real dynamic snowstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 If we can get the western regions to amp up, these are our most western weighted strong +ENSO events since 2000.. this pattern is phasing out over the course of the last few decades though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not arguing for a big winter next year...all I am trying to say is that nothing is set in stone yet. This is why I usually don't get into it this early. You end up defending a hypothetical position that you haven't even taken yet. +QBO/east-based El Nino and -PDO is a very warm Winter composite.. it's early and those things can change (Nino could be more west-based, look at how Nino 4 is currently warming.. and PDO may rise through the year? - I don't know, Feb was <-1.00) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: +QBO/east-based El Nino and -PDO is a very warm Winter composite.. it's early and those things can change (Nino could be more west-based, look at how Nino 4 is currently warming.. and PDO may rise through the year? - I don't know, Feb was <-1.00) Agreed, but I doubt we have a -PDO next season, and I'm also not sure it's east-based. The Pacific is changing....I don't think you are going to pull off an appreciable warm ENSO and maintain -PDO. We just saw that two years ago and it isn't happening again...never has. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 We just flipped from this: To this: And now a healthy WARM ENSO is going to revert it back?? Shoot me for not buying in instantaneously and having pause- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We just flipped from this: To this: And now a healthy WARM ENSO is going to revert it back?? Shoot me for not buying in instantaneously and having pause- AGAIN....don't mistake this for me saying it has to be cold in the east next year...not what I am implying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: +QBO/east-based El Nino and -PDO is a very warm Winter composite.. it's early and those things can change (Nino could be more west-based, look at how Nino 4 is currently warming.. and PDO may rise through the year? - I don't know, Feb was <-1.00) Is a +PDO combined those other parameters really that much colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We just flipped from this: To this: And now a healthy WARM ENSO is going to revert it back?? Shoot me for not buying in instantaneously and having pause- Believe it or not Summer sea-level pressure 60-90N is a great lead for what kind of upper latitude pattern will happen in the Winter.. since 2012 it's flipped every single time. We want negative SLP June-August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Just now, snowman19 said: This event may finally cause the stagnant, record breaking warm pool in the WPAC to move. This may be the one to finally flip the Pacific: Yes...and maybe that happens and it's still warm, or warm everywhere....too early to entertain that or dispute it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 Just now, roardog said: Does a +PDO combined those other parameters really that much colder? You will tend to get more of an Aleutian low, which drops a trough into the eastern US. I guess the west would still be quite warm in that scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Believe it or not Summer sea-level pressure 60-90N is a great lead for what kind of upper latitude pattern will happen in the Winter.. since 2012 it's flipped every single time. We want negative SLP June-August I have no issue with that.....it's why I always like to compare my work with your NAO formula before publishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have no issue with that.....it's why I always like to compare my work with your NAO formula before publishing. Yeah, North Atlantic SSTAs and tripole or not is also a good indicator.. a few things that are determined in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 2 minutes ago, roardog said: Does a +PDO combined those other parameters really that much colder? 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You will tend to get more of an Aleutian low, which drops a trough into the eastern US. I guess the west would still be quite warm in that scenario. 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes...and maybe that happens and it's still warm, or warm everywhere....too early to entertain that or dispute it. This is my point...+PDO doesn't guarantee a cold winter...it merely increases the probability of the warmer west/colder east pattern. If we end up with like a 2.6 event, then it won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is my point...+PDO doesn't guarantee a cold winter...it merely increases the probability of the warmer west/colder east pattern. If we end up with like a 2.6 event, then it won't matter. Mid latitudes are kind of on fire the last few years.. I would just like to see a trough 45N in the Pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, North Atlantic SSTAs and tripole or not is also a good indicator.. a few things that are determined in the summer. I remember you telling me about the Indian ocean Aug-Nov being a good indicator of winter WPO...it looked strongly positive all summer and into the fall, before flipping drastically at the last moment. Looked kind of neutralish, but the WPO ended up strongly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remember you telling me about the Indian ocean Aug-Nov being a good indicator of winter WPO...it looked strongly positive all summer and into the fall, before flipping drastically at the last moment. Looked kind of neutralish, but the WPO ended up strongly negative. As we progress more into the Fall the Indian Ocean SSTAs are a good indicator of the WPO setting up for the Winter. Check out the early season lead though... Pretty strong May-July You can make an index with the N Pacific cold pool at -0.4 vs Indian Ocean and ENSO +0.5 and have a 80% probability indicator for Winter WPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: As we progress more into the Fall the Indian Ocean SSTAs are a good indicator of the WPO setting up for the Winter. Check out the early season lead though... Pretty strong May-July You make an index with the N Pacific cold pool at -0.4 and Indian Ocean and ENSO +0.5 and have a 80% probability indicator. WPO is the index I have struggled with the most......I went big -WPO winter 2024-2025 and it was EPO instead....this past season I went big -EPO and it was -WPO. N Pac is a PIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: WPO is the index I have struggled with the most......I went big -WPO winter 2024-2025 and it was EPO instead....this past season I went big -EPO and it was -WPO. N Pac is a PIA. Western Pacific and Indian Ocean seems to definitely lead Winter WPO, SSTA-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Western Pacific and Indian Ocean seems to definitely lead Winter WPO, SSTA-wise. Do you have an image from this past fall to illustrate how it lead the big -WPO winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Do you have an image from this past fall to illustrate how it lead the big -WPO winter? Pretty strong opposite correlation (-WPO) Sept-Nov 2025 Before +WPO Winter (opposite for -WPO) Clear pattern 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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