40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The way this played out in the PNA region isn't too far from what a Nino 3.4-based El Nino should do See how the N. pacific low is directly north of the El Nino Yes, it had some favorable traits.....it was basin-wide, not east based, but if it were a bit weaker we may have been able to prevent that warmth in the east that ultimately sank our battle ship. There was probably some bad luck there, too....so I see what you are saying about being too literal. I probably oversimplified it due to the perfunctory nature of the dialogue to prove a point. I'm more nuanced in the actual analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. I will grant you that 1991 could have ended up a but better than it did, but there was definitely still a god bit of warmth to the east that raised the probability of the shit outcome that we had. I guess.. Not too far from ideal though. Nino 1+2 is almost cold there v! impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, it had some favorable traits.....it was basin-wide, not east based, but if it were a bit weaker we may have been able to prevent that warmth in the east that ultimately sank out battle ship. There as probably some bad luck there, too....so I see what you are saying about being too literal. By weaker you mean in Nino 1+2 and 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: By weaker you mean in Nino 1+2 and 3? Goes hand-in-hand...weaker overall would have likely diminished the degree of warmth that leaked east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Atlanta, especially airport south through the S burbs, had a major snowstorm in Jan of 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I guess.. Not too far from ideal though No, not far, but not ideal....and couldn't catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Goes hand-in-hand...weaker overall would have likely diminished the degree of warmth that leaked east. Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 35 minutes ago, GaWx said: Atlanta, especially airport south through the S burbs, had a major snowstorm in Jan of 1992. Oh in that case, I'd love to relive it and spike my nerf football. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 Ray, suppose the orientation doesn't change, you just multiply the anomalies by x1.5.. do you think 09-10 would have been a bad Winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Ray, suppose the orientation doesn't change, you just multiply the anomalies by x1.5.. do you think 09-10 would have been a bad Winter? Well, it sucked as it was where I am...so not a big leap. Do I think DC would have still had 75" or whatever? No, I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 I'd take 82-83 or 23-24 over 2009-2010 any day. I get what you are saying, though...it was flukey that it was that bad here...blocking was so extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, it sucked as it was where I am...so not a big leap. Do I think DC would have still had 75" or whatever? No, I don't. A strong -QBO that season combined with Strong El Nino to give us several Stratosphere warmings, which corresponded with big -NAO events. A stronger El Nino may have actually given us stronger -NAO's (even though it was the most -NAO season on record since the 1800s, during a stronger El Nino). Nino 1+2 is almost cold there, that season. I don't think a max of those anomalies would have been bad at all. Actually, I think I would go higher on total in DC vs lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 If 2009 were 2.2 or 2.3 instead of 1.6, I think that would have had a significant impact...yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If 2009 were 2.2 or 2.3 instead of 1.6, I think that would have had a significant impact...yes. I think this is where meteorological logic differs from analog based opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: A strong -QBO that season combined with Strong El Nino to give us several Stratosphere warmings, which corresponded with big -NAO events. A stronger El Nino may have actually given us stronger -NAO's (even though it was the most -NAO season on record since the 1800s, during a stronger El Nino). Nino 1+2 is almost cold there, that season. I don't think a max of those anomalies would have been bad at all. Actually, I think I would go higher on total in DC vs lower. I highly doubt the warmth would have remained that related to the west had it grown that potent. I think going high on snowfall is ridiculous....that was such an anomalous outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I highly doubt the warmth would have remained that related to the west had it grown that potent. I think going high on snowfall is ridiculous....that was such an anomalous outcome. If you consider it was the most -NAO season on record, and a Stronger Nino STJ, it's not that far fetched. Anyway my point is it's not different things happen if you turn up the heat, it's just bigger same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think this is where meteorological logic differs from analog based opinions. I think this is where putting down the calculator and being more pragmatic has some utility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think this is where putting down the calculator and being more pragmatic has some utility. Well you know ENSO's main effect is due north and south of SSTA's, where the Hadley Cell and mid-latitude cell meet right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: If you consider it was the most -NAO season on record, and a Stronger Nino STJ, it's not that far fetched. Anyway my point is it's not different things happen if you turn up the heat, is just bigger same. See, I think this is where YOU are being too literal....replay that season 100x, and I'd be willing to bet Baltimore doesn't get consecutive 3' events. This is like saying that some NAO blocking in 2015 would have gotten Boston 120" in month instead of 100". I think that is far too reductive and Linear a thought process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 If Nino 1+2 is as cold as 09-10 I don't see how the pattern changes if it's 2.2 or 2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Well you know ENSO's main effect is due north and south of SSTA's, where the Hadley Cell and mid-latitude cell meet right? If you have ever taken the time to read through my stuff, you wouldn't be asking that question. The shear anomaly of an occurrence of that magnitude renders it unlikely, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: See, I think this is where YOU are being too literal....replay that season 100x, and I'd be willing to bet Baltimore doesn't get consecutive 3' events. This is like saying that some NAO blocking in 2015 would have gotten Boston 120" in month instead of 100". I think that is far too reductive and Linear a thought process. Nationally, 09-10 was actually drier than most Strong Nino's. I guess at 39N it's not that typical to get several big blizzards but NAO has never been more negative.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: If Nino 1+2 is as cold as 09-10 I don't see how the pattern changes if it's 2.2 or 2.3 It would't be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nationally, 09-10 was actually drier than most Strong Nino's. I guess at 39N it's not that typical to get several big blizzards but NAO has never been more negative.. Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If you have ever taken the time to read through my stuff, you wouldn't be asking that question. The shear anomaly of an occurrence of that magnitude renders it unlikely, regardless. Agree to disagree I guess. I don't think more of the same changes the positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Give a replica season of 1977-1978 and 1995-1996...I'll bet against a Feb 1978 redux and 127.5" of snowfall IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It would't be. Well I said if you multiplied anomalies by 1.5x what would it be. That would make Nino 1+2 0.0 to 0.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Agree to disagree I guess. I don't think more of the same changes the positions. Sure.....I've been at that point for about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Well I said if you multiplied anomalies by 1.5x what would it be. That would make Nino 1+2 0.0 to 0.0. You think if March 2015 were as prolific as February 2015, I could have achieved a 65" snowpack? My position is that we won't see that....if we ever do, feel free to dig me up in 2080 or whatever and brag, if you have your head cryogenically frozen or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You think if March 2015 were as prolific as February 2015, I could have achieved a 65" snowpack? My position is that we won't see that....if we ever do, feel free to dig me up in 2080 or whatever and brag, if you have your head cryogenically frozen or something. It's rare to get a strong west-based Nino but 91-92 certainly could have been colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now