40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 31 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Yeah, they prematurely overhyped the el nino. But by the time you got to 14-15, you just knew whenever the el nino developed, it was going to be historic. The el nino was building up for 3-4 years at that time. I'd even argue that 2024-25 was a la nina bust, as well. That one was predicted early on to be a strong la nina, but ended up as a disjointed 2-year la nina. I called BS on that early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: two consecutive -PDO El Nino events. Feels like another superstition. If anything 2 consecutive -PDO El Nino events should favor another one vs something opposite. Weather can be cyclical. I do think the fundamentals of PDO state may have started to change with the Solar Max/aurora borealis the last 2 years, since May 2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Feels like another superstition. If anything 2 consecutive -PDO El Nino events should favor another one vs something opposite. Weather can be cyclical. I do think the fundamentals of PDO state may have started to change with the Solar Max/aurora borealis the last 2 years, since May 2024. Okay.....I bet you $100 the PDO averages positive this winter if El Nino peaks at 1.5 or higher this coming fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay.....I bet you $100 the PDO averages positive this winter if El Nino peaks at 1.5 or higher this coming fall. It probably will average positive.. but I think it could be in the ~+0.50 range vs the +1/1.5 that you might think goes with Stronger El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It probably will average positive.. but I think it could be in the ~+0.50 range vs the +1/1.5 that you might think goes with Stronger El Nino. Okay, you agree with me because I never stated the second half of that. Sounds like a delusion. jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay, you agree with me because I never stated the second half of that. Sounds like a delusion. jk Well obviously Winters are better if the PDO is strong vs near neutral. You can still get a NE warm Winter in near neutral PDO in El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Well obviously Winters are better if the PDO is strong vs near neutral. You can still get a NE warm Winter in near neutral PDO I understand that....you have a preconceived notion of my expectation for the coming winter. All I'm saying is that if El Nino is robust, the PDO will flip. Agree it will be warm, but I doubt that it will be prohibitively so for the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 If it's an uber-even over 2.0, yes...we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I understand that....you have a preconceived notion of my expectation for the coming winter. All I'm saying is that if El Nino is robust, the PDO will flip. Agree it will be warm, but I doubt that it will be prohibitively so for the northeast. Let's see.. it will be interesting to see if it goes with El Nino and pulls a 2014-2016, or if it continues to meander near neutral despite strong ENSO forcing like 23-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 It will absolutely be warmer than this past winter, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Let's see.. it will be interesting to see if it goes with El Nino and pulls a 2014-2016, or if it continues to meander near neutral despite strong ENSO forcing like 23-24. I could see it perhaps hanging near neutral like 2004 or 2009....23-24 remained strongly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If it's an uber-even over 2.0, yes...we're screwed. In the eastern regions. Even so, our snowstorm composite in the Mid Atlantic is a GOA low which is the much favored El Nino pattern, even in Strong. That means we are a -NAO away from a great possibly historic Winter, with a super amped STJ. I don't agree with your logic about going with a higher number changes the players positionings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 I do not expect it be like 2023-2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 Every month in the 2020s has been -PDO. 74 consecutive months right now. Will it break? Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: In the eastern regions. Even so, our snowstorm composite in the Mid Atlantic is a GOA low which is the much favored El Nino pattern, even in Strong. That means we are a -NAO away from a great possibly historic Winter, with a super amped STJ. I don't agree with your logic about going with a higher number changes the players positionings. We've been through that....higher end events are going to leak east. You keep imagining this uber-strong, western biased unicorn...have at it. Yes, strong events are favorable for rouge blizzards, agreed. I called the 2016 event down to the week on a seasonal level. I am talking about temps and NE overall snowfall...only one that was decent for NE snowfall was 1982, which had somewhat of a -WPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 I forecasted 2015 to pull that off, Chuck, and it was a failure aside from getting the blizzard right....but I hope we do it one day. I know we've come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I forecasted 2015 to pull that off, Chuck, and it was a failure aside from getting the blizzard right....but I hope we do it one day. I know we've come close. I just think it could be a little surprising the possibility for colder conditions in Stronger El Nino. A few of them occurred in the 1895-1948 dataset. The # of samples we have right now is skewed a little warm and too +NAO, imo. Of course we have this global warming spike hitting the West coast and Rockies so we'll see if next Winter doesn't try to repeat the dataset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay.....I bet you $100 the PDO averages positive this winter if El Nino peaks at 1.5 or higher this coming fall. Are you talking RONI peak? Which PDO are you referring to, the monthly NOAA or the WCS graphed dailies, which average ~1 higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 Progression of yearly SSTA with January PDO. It doesn't correlate really strong until August. And Aug-Sept-Oct is exponentially higher than Spring/early Summer.. doesn't matter as much through June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 46 minutes ago, GaWx said: Are you talking RONI peak? Which PDO are you referring to, the monthly NOAA or the WCS graphed dailies, which average ~1 higher? I think he's look at NOAA. He referenced Feb as around -1, which is noaa 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Are you talking RONI peak? Which PDO are you referring to, the monthly NOAA or the WCS graphed dailies, which average ~1 higher? RONI, since ONI is obsolete. I use this for PDO: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I just think it could be a little surprising the possibility for colder conditions in Stronger El Nino. A few of them occurred in the 1895-1948 dataset. The # of samples we have right now is skewed a little warm and too +NAO, imo. Of course we have this global warming spike hitting the West coast and Rockies so we'll see if next Winter doesn't try to repeat the dataset. If patterns are getting stuck, maybe we csn continue the luck with plentiful eastern troughing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Evidence is growing for a very substantial El Niño event. Very few El Niño events of the last 45+ years have seen a record strong WWB like this and twin TC’s this early in the spring…. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 March monthly SOI came in at +7.59. Since 1950, no >+1.2 later in the year El Nino had a March SOI >5.5 fwiw. Only 1 had SOI >2.1 Doesn't mean it can't happen, 15 total examples (RONI) March 1957 -2.7 March 1963 +5.5 March 1965 +2.1 March 1968 -3.6 March 1972 +1.2 March 1982 +0.7 March 1986 -0.3 March 1987 -16.1 March 1991 -10.1 March 1994 -10 March 1997 -7 March 2002 -5.6 March 2009 -1.3 March 2015 -10.7 March 2023 -1.78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 March 31 Nino 4 is >+0.5... +0.525 This is way ahead of other later in the year >+1.2 El Nino's.. only 2015 and 1997 were greater for the month of April. April 1957 -0.06 April 1963 -0.34 April 1965 -0.92 April 1968 -0.46 April 1972 +0.11 April 1982 +0.33 April 1986 -0.34 April 1987 +0.08 April 1991 +0.34 April 1994 +0.11 April 1997 +0.59 April 2002 +0.41 April 2009 -0.26 April 2015 +0.98 April 2023 +0.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 16 hours ago, snowman19 said: Evidence is growing for a very substantial El Niño event. Very few El Niño events of the last 45+ years have seen a record strong WWB like this and twin TC’s this early in the spring…. Will be interesting to see the Euro seasonal Nino 3.4 forecast on April 5th once it initializes this event. Wouldn’t be surprised if it increases Nino 3.4 temperatures from the March 5th update. If we get these WWBs continuing and not reversing like we saw in June 2014, then this could be our first two events reaching at least +2.0 C on the ONI scale and around 28.57 C only three years apart. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt NDJ 2023 28.57 2.06 NDJ 2015 29.26 2.75 OND 1997 29.02 2.40 NDJ 1982 28.76 2.23 NDJ 1972 28.54 2.12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 New Cansips out on TropicalTidbits. Similar to last month with lots of blocking. Drier for the east coast than typical for a Niño, but it's a long range forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: New Cansips out on TropicalTidbits. Similar to last month with lots of blocking. Drier for the east coast than typical for a Niño, but it's a long range forecast. It did well last year. I was skeptical it would end up that cold. Interesting to see how it does this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Will be interesting to see if the Euro April 5th release turns out to be as reliable as its El Niño forecast issued back in April 2023. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2023-April-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Will be interesting to see if the Euro April 5th release turns out to be as reliable as its El Niño forecast issued back in April 2023. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2023-April-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table I remember that well. Everyone thought the EURO was being way too aggressive and had a bad warm bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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