GaWx Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I remember that well. Everyone thought the EURO was being way too aggressive and had a bad warm bias 1. The Euro did well with ONI in 2023, one of their best performances. But they also really did have a notable warm bias as was repeatedly shown with actual verifications vs progs over a near 20 year period, a large sample size. I spent lots of time researching and then showing this. A bias of any kind doesn’t at all mean that in a minority of cases verifications can’t be good. You know that. Keep in mind the very big too warm misses of 2012, 2014, and 2017 busts, for example. In all 3 cases a moderate El Niño was predicted repeatedly as I just posted. And the Euro has never been too cold by a significant degree. The one or two too cold misses were tiny in size. 2. The Euro when averaged out in only actual El Niño seasons had a smaller warm bias than for other seasons, which I’ve also pointed out. However, it still had a small warm bias even for those with some big too warm misses even during Nino seasons. 3. Furthermore, RONI of that season peaked at only high end moderate/low end strong as the Euro doesn’t predict RONI. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. 4. Let’s see what actually happens. It could of course end up very strong/super even for RONI as I’m open too all possibilities. It’s way too early for high confidence in any strength. That’s my main point. But remember to subtract ~0.5C for the best RONI prog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Where are we going for daily H5 charts now that this site is no longer updating? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ This site is fine for temps and precip. https://prism.oregonstate.edu/comparisons/anomalies.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where are we going for daily H5 charts now that this site is no longer updating? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ This site is fine for temps and precip. https://prism.oregonstate.edu/comparisons/anomalies.php The new Conventional Observation Reanalysis that’s supposed to replace it only has the raw data available (https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/core/) which is annoying since I haven’t found any custom built code that plots it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: The new Conventional Observation Reanalysis that’s supposed to replace it only has the raw data available (https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/core/) which is annoying since I haven’t found any custom built code that plots it yet I have noticed....so we don't have means to plot H5 beyond March 17, 2026 for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have noticed....so we don't have means to plot H5 beyond March 17, 2026 for now? Correct, nothing publicly available as far as I know 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Just now, LakePaste25 said: Correct, nothing publicly available as far as I know WTF.....going to refrain from anything that could be conceived as political discourse, but I have my opinions as to whom the ire should be directed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 MAGA Make Analysis Great Again. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where are we going for daily H5 charts now that this site is no longer updating? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ Oh no! That's the best site on the internet! Why the heck would they stop it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Oh no! That's the best site on the internet! Why the heck would they stop it? Ask the White House... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 The new Cansips has winter anomalies significantly colder in the NE than the SE: For all of the Ninos peaking at +1.5+, not a single one going back at least to 1895-6 had a colder NE than SE anomaly wise! Not even one! These are the winters: 2023-4, 2015-6, 2009-10, 2002-3, 1997-8, 1991-2, 1987-8, 1986-7, 1982-3, 1972-3, 1965-6, 1957-8, 1940-1, 1930-1, 1925-6, 1918-9, 1902-3, 1899-00, and 1896-7. That’s 19 winters, a nice sample size suggesting the CANSIPS E US winter temp. anomalies and a strong El Niño prog aren’t at all jibing with history. Here is the aggregate of those 19 winters: Edit: Even going all of the way down to peaks of +1.0 yields the same result, no winter colder in NE than SE. That adds 13 more for a total sample size of 32! Here’s the average of the 13 moderates: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 ^CPC was putting out long range Winter outlooks that looked like that: warm in the SE, cooler in the NE. Then last month they updated with a full on El Nino composite for the Winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: The new Cansips has winter anomalies significantly colder in the NE than the SE: For all of the Ninos peaking at +1.5+, not a single one going back at least to 1895-6 had a colder NE than SE anomaly wise! Not even one! These are the winters: 2023-4, 2015-6, 2009-10, 2002-3, 1997-8, 1991-2, 1987-8, 1986-7, 1982-3, 1972-3, 1965-6, 1957-8, 1940-1, 1930-1, 1925-6, 1918-9, 1902-3, 1899-00, and 1896-7. That’s 19 winters, a nice sample size suggesting the CANSIPS E US winter temp. anomalies and a strong El Niño prog aren’t at all jibing with history. Here is the aggregate of those 19 winters: Edit: Even going all of the way down to peaks of +1.0 yields the same result, no winter colder in NE than SE. That adds 13 more for a total sample size of 33! I see it has some split forcing showing up with some lingering convection in the west pacific. Also appears to be more basin-wide. I agree - i think a +TNH outcome like that is probably overkill even if there’s split forcing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: I see it has some split forcing showing up with some lingering convection in the west pacific. Also appears to be more basin-wide. I agree - i think a +TNH outcome like that is probably overkill even if there’s split forcing. Yea, I could buy some vestige of it remaining, but it's probably overdone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 @bluewaveLooks to me like the Pac jet was up to it's old tricks again in March, as the blocking for met winter abated and the MJO, albeit largely favorable, remained weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 47 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Oh no! That's the best site on the internet! Why the heck would they stop it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It did well last year. I was skeptical it would end up that cold. Interesting to see how it does this year. I’m looking for it to bust badly assuming El Niño verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: I’m looking for it to bust badly assuming El Niño verifies. Last Summer the CANSIP had -5 anomalies around the Great Lakes and Midwest at 0.0 month (the 1st of the month). It verified +2-3 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 1 minute ago, GaWx said: I’m looking for it to bust badly assuming El Niño verifies. What does it look like in the ENSO region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What does it look like in the ENSO region? Brings ENSO warm as far west as New Guinea lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What does it look like in the ENSO region? What Chuck said. It has a healthy strength Nino, probably nearing or exceeding +1.5 ONI. That doesn’t as you know at all jibe with the La Ninaish temperature anomaly pattern it has for the US and Canada. Like I said, I’ve found no +1.0+ Nino winter anything close to the Ninalike configuration Cansips has out of 32 of them! Really weird and why I expect its overall Ninaish US temp. configuration to badly bust if a decent El Niño were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 Tomorrow we might hit +5c in the subsurface on TAO/Triton. I don't think I've ever seen it so warm. Will have to compare vs analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Tomorrow we might hit +5c in the subsurface on TAO/Triton. I don't think I've ever seen it so warm. Will have to compare vs analogs. I think 1997 might have gotten that warm or close to it in the subsurface at one point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: I think 1997 might have gotten that warm or close to it in the subsurface at one point Yeah, April 1997 had a really warm subsurface 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 32 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, April 1997 had a really warm subsurface Image links aren't working. I'll try to upload image later Yea, 1997 got insanely warm in the subsurface starting in the spring like this one appears to be doing. SSTs ended up peaking in region 3.4 on the weeklies at +2.8C the last week of November, 1997 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 The way Nino 4 is warming is so interesting. Again, only 2 April's on record had higher than +0.500 monthly for later in year >+1.2 El Nino's (out of 15): April 1997: +0.59 April 2015: +0.98 We are at +0.511 on April 1. There is so much warm potential energy for things to easily go strong. PhillyEaglesfan may not get his Strong Nina for a while. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The way Nino 4 is warming is so interesting. Again, only 2 April's on record had higher than +0.500 monthly for later in year >+1.2 El Nino's (out of 15): April 1997: +0.59 April 2015: +0.98 We are at +0.511 on April 1. There is so much warm potential energy for things to easily go strong. PhillyEaglesfan may not get his Strong Nina for a while. Said it the other day, but I think “high-end” strong is going to be the floor with this event, with super prospects increasing @bluewave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 I think it will be basin-wide like 2015-16 2015-16 is also a +QBO match later in the year, and Phoenix which broke it's DJFM Temp record by 4.2 degrees this past Winter, number 2 on record was 2014-15, before the 2015 El Nino. Best analog right now imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 I don't know how anyone is surprised about the lack of data/products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 Global SSTA are about as classic as it gets right now for later in the year Nino 3.4 El Nino ^Even the Atlantic matches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The way Nino 4 is warming is so interesting. Again, only 2 April's on record had higher than +0.500 monthly for later in year >+1.2 El Nino's (out of 15): April 1997: +0.59 April 2015: +0.98 We are at +0.511 on April 1. There is so much warm potential energy for things to easily go strong. PhillyEaglesfan may not get his Strong Nina for a while. I wouldn't be too sure. After the 1997-98 event, a double-year strong la nina followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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