Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, until you find me a +ENSO north of 2.0 that offered a favorable outcome for winter enthusiasts, it's factual. Not enough examples. 91-92 is the only west-based event 2.0 or greater. 15-16 was the only basin wide. 0/1 and 0/1.. the rest were east-based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not arguing the pattern doesn't look different....I'm arguing it doesn't really matter if ENSO gets that powerful. But why would the same thing change if it's 0.5 or 2.0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We are still in that +1-5 year from Solar Max window. You will say the NAO wasn't that bad last Winter, but the average of the last 14 months is very ++ No argument there....highly doubt it averages negative for the season next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Not enough examples. 91-92 is the only west-based event 2.0 or greater. 15-16 was the only basin wide. 0/1 and 0/1.. the rest were east-based I knew you would call sample size Well, once we get a big NE winter with a 2.1+ El Niño, I'll capitulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: But why would the same thing change if it's 0.5 or 2.0? I think it's a combination of the fact that there is so much excess heat in extreme warm ENSO, and it impacts the Atlantic STJ in such a manner that is very hostile to high latitude blocking. I'd have to look back at the research to double check..been a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I knew you would call sample size Well, once we get a big NE winter with a 2.1+ El Niño, I'll capitulate. Not counting one KU in the mid Atlantic....I mean above average snowfall throughout the NE and colder than average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Orientation doesn't matter much for weak events, either.....much more disparity in weak events....ie east-based events that were colder, and west-based that were warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I knew you would call sample size Well, once we get a big NE winter with a 2.1+ El Niño, I'll capitulate. If someone asked me, I'd take a repeat of 91-92 styled El Nino. the 2nd and 3rd strongest like that were 09-10 and 02-03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I knew you would call sample size Well, once we get a big NE winter with a 2.1+ El Niño, I'll capitulate. Also there have been no La Nina's <-2.0. If there were, I bet they would be warm if they were west-based (maybe before 1950 there were some, I'll have to check) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Also there have been no La Nina's <-2.0. If there were, I bet they would be warm (maybe before 1950 there were some, I'll have to check) Agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree 100%. So why wouldn't the opposite produce an opposite anomaly pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: If someone asked me, I'd take a repeat of 91-92 styled El Nino. the 2nd and 3rd strongest like that were 09-10 and 02-03 I would prefer it a bit weaker...but I don't doubt we could have had a good interlude(s) if the polar domain were not so hostile. I compare all of these analogs with a fine-tooth comb this summer and fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would prefer it a bit weaker...but I don't doubt we could have had a good interlude(s) if the NAO were not so hostile. I see where you are getting stuck, you are taking analogs too literal. There are only really 2. The mechanics of the situation don't change, it only changes the amplitude. If forcing is west-based, that's +PNA and a stronger +PNA if it's >2.0 in the west (RONI). I'll take a really, really strong +PNA. You just don't want it to get too close to the west coast, US, which is more tropically east-based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I see where you are getting stuck, you are taking analogs too literal. There are only really 2. The mechanics of the situation don't change, it only changes the amplitude. If forcing is west-based, that's +PNA and a stronger +PNA if it's >2.0 in the west (RONI). I'll take a really, really strong +PNA. You just don't want it to get too close to the west coast, US, which is more tropically east-based No, I'm not "stuck"....what I do know is there is literal dearth of high latitude blocking when ENSO is exceptionally powerful, and I don't think that's a coincidence. Okay, the sample size is small....but it still is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, I'm not "stuck"....what I do know is there is literal dearth of high latitude blocking when ENSO is exceptionally powerful, and I don't think that's a coincidence. Okay, the sample size is small....but it still is what it is. El Nino events actually favor 10mb Stratosphere warmings.. which can be -AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: El Nino events actually favor 10mb Stratosphere warmings.. which can be -AO Right....on average.....exceptionally strong events aren't average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Maybe I'm wrong...but until I see data to the contrary, I will feel as though extremely strong ENSO is hostile for high latitude blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right....on average.....exceptionally strong events aren't average. A sample of 50 Strong El Nino's might change your mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: A sample of 50 Strong El Nino's might change your mind? Exceptionally strong....I don't argue 1.5-2.0 can be favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe I'm wrong...but until I see data to the contrary, I will feel as though extremely strong ENSO is hostile for high latitude blocking. The NAO is weakly correlated to ENSO. There is in statistics a point of "random" where X amount of examples if they show something can be deemed as not significant. Then the logic of weak and strong in the same area is different, and it doesn't make sense. It's a shame we have so few data points, but the physics of meteorology and Hadley Cell/mid latitude Cell meeting points support generally cooler conditions in the Eastern US in Strong (>2.0) west-based El Nino's, as long as the eastern ENSO regions aren't going crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exceptionally strong....I don't argue 1.5-2.0 can be favorable. The only way I can see that making a difference is if it's spilling over into Nino 3 and 1+2. If Nino 1+2 is +2, instead of +0.5.. because of the physics of that situation support a CONUS ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is a composite only a mother could love. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: NAO part of that composite is "other factors", not completely connected to ENSO imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Right....events that strong always have warmth in region 1.2. Okay.....I get that. But that doesn't make me wrong....good luck getting one that doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right....events that strong always have warmth in region 1.2. Okay.....I get that. But that doesn't make me wrong....good luck getting one that doesn't. Yeah basin wide is warmer than west-based, but I'm pointing out that 91-92 Winter warmth was an anomaly in an event with that orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Like I said, too much warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Like I said, too much warmth. Too much warmth in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 The way this played out in the PNA region isn't too far from what a Nino 3.4-based El Nino should do See how the N. pacific low is directly north of the El Nino 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Too much warmth in the east. Yes. I will grant you that 1991 could have ended up a but better than it did, but there was definitely still a god bit of warmth to the east that raised the probability of the shit outcome that we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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