40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 All joking aside, small sample size or not, the data that we have implies that an El Niño stronger than 2.0 is going to slide east...it's why the strongest events are usually east-based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's rare to get a strong west-based Nino but 91-92 certainly could have been colder.. Sure...just like 2009-2010 could have been snowier up here and the Pats could have been undefeated in 2007. But I'm a fan of the scoreboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 April 1982 and April 1997 were very cold US-wide. CFS has the opposite. If it isn't drunk on its own delusions, you'd say April 2026 looks like a blend of 1963, 2002, 2015, 2019, minus 1982, 1997. Conceptually, the big El Nino following big La Nina with low solar is a very cold winter here. We don't have that combo for this winter. We have high solar, good El Nino following weak La Nina/neutral. It's probably more of a very wet winter here than very cold. More likely: 1997 and 1982 already had dominant impacts on the global pattern by April, and the upcoming El Nino does not. April on the CFS looks a lot like winter 2004-2005, if the greatest warmth was fully shifted south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Yea, I have been saying that I don't see this is an uber-El Nino that will fry the east. Generally agree, though haven't delved deeply into analogs at this early juncture. 2002 is one I speculated on.....just conjecture right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 The El Ninos following two cold ENSOs (not 1 or 3 or more or many neutrals), with high solar are relatively rare - 1968. 1982. 1997. 2009. 2018 each El Nino follows two cold Ensos in a row. Only 1968, 1982, 1997 are relatively active for solar. PDO is negative in 1968 with AMO negative. Both look likely/possible, we've got the cold flipped C from Iceland to all the way around West Africa. Stupidly cold in March as a blend but I doubt those three years will work. Conceptually, you have: 2026: -AMO, -PDO, El Nino, High Solar, after two cold ENSOs for this winter. That's like 1968, next closest is 1982/1997/2009/2018. Anti 2026: +AMO, +PDO, La Nina, Low Solar, after two warm ENSOs for the winter: That's 1995, 2016, 2020 Would look like this in concept - probably not as severe in reality. Somewhere between 2023-2024 and the above image is my guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Actually, 1972 qualifies as well. Followed two cold ENSOs, high solar, negative AMO, negative PDO. 1968 and 1972 are the best matches on the variables - +ENSO, following two -ENSOs, high solar, -AMO, -PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 If the PDO turns positive this year, then 1988 becomes the obvious anti-2026 log. In the East, 1988 was a very warm summer, followed by a very cool fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 As much as I and many others would love to see the PDO actually change that ain't looking all to good right now regardless of ENSO state to come. Weak to moderate +ENSO is a solid call still with a tip to strong if it can actually get itself together. Super is a stretch but hey weird things happen. The more time passes the more I see this being situated further west with warming lets see how things shape up over the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Well, this would be the first time we have had three consecutive -PDO El Nino events. If it did flip, I think it would go back after the El Nino subsides....I'm not saying the cold phase is over. I don't think that ends until beyond the turn of the decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 8 hours ago, raindancewx said: Actually, 1972 qualifies as well. Followed two cold ENSOs, high solar, negative AMO, negative PDO. 1968 and 1972 are the best matches on the variables - +ENSO, following two -ENSOs, high solar, -AMO, -PDO. You are right, but I highly doubt we see another one like that given how similar 2023-2024 was to 1972-1973. I think El Nino ends up weaker and further west than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 We have also had three consecutive El Ninos that have been shitty for snowfall in the NE....I would have to look, but I'm not sure we have ever had four consecutive. Some of this stuff is a bit anecdotal, but I think it does have value in hedging towards more likely outcomes. 1987-1988, 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 is the only other example of three consecutive that I can come up with.... My early hunch is moderate to strong (sub 2.0) likely basin-wide El Nino with Modoki a lesser possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Maybe something like this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, this would be the first time we have had three consecutive -PDO El Nino events. If it did flip, I think it would go back after the El Nino subsides....I'm not saying the cold phase is over. I don't think that ends until beyond the turn of the decade. Come to think of it, 2015-16 is the only el nino post 2002-03 that is a +PDO. 2004-05 -PDO 2006-07 -PDO 2009-10 neutral PDO (November December -PDO; January February +PDO) 2015-16 +PDO 2018-19 -PDO 2023-24 -PDO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 16 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Come to think of it, 2015-16 is the only el nino post 2002-03 that is a +PDO. 2004-05 -PDO 2006-07 -PDO 2009-10 neutral PDO (November December -PDO; January February +PDO) 2015-16 +PDO 2018-19 -PDO 2023-24 -PDO Good all on 2009-2010...that was a slight -PDO......so there was three consecutive prior to 2014. I feel like if we remain negative PDO again, it's going to be more like 2004 and 2009 in that it won't be severely so. I could see something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2004-2005 may be a fine analog if you account for the fact that El Nino will be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Given the PDO changes since 2023-24 I very seriously doubt the PDO stays negative if we see a strong to super El Niño. Here is a really informative series of tweets from a Met out in Colorado. He is completely neutral and has zero bias for cold or warmth: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 We have also had three consecutive El Ninos that have been shitty for snowfall in the NE....I would have to look, but I'm not sure we have ever had four consecutive. Some of this stuff is a bit anecdotal, but I think it does have value in hedging towards more likely outcomes. 1987-1988, 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 is the only other example of three consecutive that I can come up with.... My early hunch is moderate to strong (sub 2.0) likely basin-wide El Nino with Modoki a lesser possibility.I’m starting to think strong is probably the floor with this event. Modeling has very significant “twin” TC development on both sides of the hemisphere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 I am NO enso expert, not even close, but I remember a handful of years ago, they were hyping a STRONG (I cant even remember if it was Nino or Nina) event and it failed so bad it was either a cold/warm neutral. Not saying I think this El Nino fails, just that it seems way early to be SO confident in a strong one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 22 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m starting to think strong is probably the floor with this event. Modeling has very significant “twin” TC development on both sides of the hemisphere We'll see. I'd bet against it, but my early guesses are often wrong because they're just that....guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 I agree if we approach 2.0, then the PDO will flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree if we approach 2.0, then the PDO will flip. IMO if this is a “high-end” strong to super (+2.0C) El Niño, it’s going to flip the PDO positive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 People saying "I don't see any sign of the PDO flipping"...no shit, we don't see any sign of the El Nino yet. It's like convincing yourself on the ocean that it's going to remain snowing before the low comes closer and the wind flips onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 PDO was only -1.01 for February....I don't get the reluctance to fathom a flip in the face of a strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Feb 2002 -1.51, Feb 1957 it was -1.57.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 PDO isn't as strongly connected to ENSO as you would think.. here are the Strongest El Nino's. 2 other areas in the globe have bigger anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: I am NO enso expert, not even close, but I remember a handful of years ago, they were hyping a STRONG (I cant even remember if it was Nino or Nina) event and it failed so bad it was either a cold/warm neutral. Not saying I think this El Nino fails, just that it seems way early to be SO confident in a strong one. The Euro is prone to being too warm with ONI, sometimes by a lot: 1) 2014: It in 3/2014 predicted a +1.3 ONI for JAS vs only +0.1 that verified It progged in 4/2014 +1.4 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified Euro progged in 5/2014 +1.5 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified 2) 2012: It progged in 4/2012 +1.0 for ASO vs only +0.4 that verified It progged in 5/2012 +1.0 for SON vs only +0.3 that verified It progged in 6/2012 +1.2 for OND vs only +0.1 that verified 3) 2017: In March of 2017 Euro progged a +1.1 ONI in JAS vs -0.1 ONI that verified! In April of 2017 it progged +1.1 ASO vs -0.3 that verified! ————— I’m not even talking about RONI, which as of now is ~0.5 cooler than ONI. ——————— Sources: Euro progs https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-June-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table ONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: The Euro is prone to being too warm with ONI, sometimes by a lot: It in 3/2014 predicted a +1.3 ONI for JAS vs only +0.1 that verified It progged in 4/2014 +1.4 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified Euro progged in 5/2014 +1.5 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified It progged in 4/2012 +1.0 for ASO vs only +0.4 that verified It progged in 5/2012 +1.0 for SON vs only +0.3 that verified It progged in 6/2012 +1.2 for OND vs only +0.1 that verified I’m not even talking about RONI, which as of now is ~0.5 cooler than ONI. Sources: Euro progs https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-June-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table ONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt Yeah, they prematurely overhyped the el nino. But by the time you got to 14-15, you just knew whenever the el nino developed, it was going to be historic. The el nino was building up for 3-4 years at that time. I'd even argue that 2024-25 was a la nina bust, as well. That one was predicted early on to be a strong la nina, but ended up as a disjointed 2-year la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Yeah, they prematurely overhyped the el nino. But by the time you got to 14-15, you just knew whenever the el nino developed, it was going to be historic. The el nino was building up for 3-4 years at that time. I'd even argue that 2024-25 was a la nina bust, as well. That one was predicted early on to be a strong la nina, but ended up as a disjointed 2-year la nina. 1. The Euro also repeatedly (April through August) predicted a moderate El Niño ONI in 2012 and ONI ended up peaking at only +0.4. 2. In March of 2017 Euro progged a +1.1 ONI in JAS vs -0.1 ONI that verified! In April of 2017 it progged +1.1 ASO vs -0.3 that verified! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: I am NO enso expert, not even close, but I remember a handful of years ago, they were hyping a STRONG (I cant even remember if it was Nino or Nina) event and it failed so bad it was either a cold/warm neutral. Not saying I think this El Nino fails, just that it seems way early to be SO confident in a strong one. 14-15. Models went strong or super to begin with. But that one hinged on strong WWBs in the summer and early autumn that never materialized. This one is building much earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: PDO isn't as strongly connected to ENSO as you would think.. here are the Strongest El Nino's. 2 other areas in the globe have bigger anomalies Well, they are correlated....and I feel it will flip with a strong El Nino on the heels of two consecutive -PDO El Nino events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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