2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

I strongly disagree. 1951-80 has not been relevant base climo for anomalies for a very long time. Normals are supposed to reflect the most up to date available climo. We’re obviously in a notably warmer climate than that of 1951-80. That earlier colder climate is no longer relevant for determining normals.

NASA GISS uses 1951-1980 for its departures with Canada going with 1961-1990. Berkeley Earth uses the 1850-1900 period along with Copernicus and the Met Office.

1951-1980 was the last relatively stable temperature regime before emissions and temperatures really took off.

So using warmer 1991-2020 climate normals masks the warming relative to the past. 
 

https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/world-of-change/global-temperatures/

The NASA GISS team chose the period of 1951-1980 as its baseline largely because the U.S. National Weather Service uses a three-decade period to define “normal” or average temperature. The GISS temperature analysis effort also began around 1980, so the most recent 30-year period was 1951-1980. Their objective is to provide an estimate of temperature change that could be compared with predictions of global climate change in response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, aerosols, and changes in solar activity.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations.html

Much of Canadian economic and social activity is climate dependent. Understanding how Canada’s climate is changing, in the context of global climate change, is important for developing adaptive responses. The Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin (CTVB) helps communicate to Canadians how Canada's climate has changed  over the recent past and longer, over the period for which Environment Canada has climate observations.

The CTVB describes climate variability through maps of current and past departures from the mean (the 30-year average 1961-1990) temperature and precipitation conditions, both seasonally and annually. This approach provides visualization of the extent to which temperature and precipitation vary above and below longer term average conditions. Maps are presented for each season and year. The data are then analyzed to see if there are detectable trends of longer terms against this backdrop of climate variability for Canada as a whole, and for 11 climate regions. This information is presented as graphs with trend lines to assess climate change over the period of record, starting in 1948 when nation-wide records became available.

Winter National Temperature Departures and Long-term Trend, 1948–2025

 

 

[GaWx]

 The longer range model consensus is suggesting the possibility of a very long MJO phase 6 streak later this month, the 2nd this year possibly reaching 14+ days, and with a likely max magnitude of 2+.

 

Longest MJO ph. 6: # days; max mag

7/28-8/18/1984: 22; 2.5;

7/15-8/4/1996: 21; 2.0; 

10/13-31/2022: 19; 2.2

6/13-30/1984: 18; 2.0;

1/5-21/2026: 17; 2.7

11/16-12/1/1998: 16; 2.5

10/6-20/1988: 15; 3.0

7/19-8/1/2018: 14; 2.5

2/25-3/10/1997: 14; 3.6

 

 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NASA GISS uses 1951-1980 for its departures with Canada going with 1961-1990. Berkeley Earth uses the 1850-1900 period along with Copernicus and the Met Office.

1951-1980 was the last relatively stable temperature regime before emissions and temperatures really took off.

So using warmer 1991-2020 climate normals masks the warming relative to the past. 
 

https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/world-of-change/global-temperatures/

The NASA GISS team chose the period of 1951-1980 as its baseline largely because the U.S. National Weather Service uses a three-decade period to define “normal” or average temperature. The GISS temperature analysis effort also began around 1980, so the most recent 30-year period was 1951-1980. Their objective is to provide an estimate of temperature change that could be compared with predictions of global climate change in response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, aerosols, and changes in solar activity.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations.html

Much of Canadian economic and social activity is climate dependent. Understanding how Canada’s climate is changing, in the context of global climate change, is important for developing adaptive responses. The Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin (CTVB) helps communicate to Canadians how Canada's climate has changed  over the recent past and longer, over the period for which Environment Canada has climate observations.

The CTVB describes climate variability through maps of current and past departures from the mean (the 30-year average 1961-1990) temperature and precipitation conditions, both seasonally and annually. This approach provides visualization of the extent to which temperature and precipitation vary above and below longer term average conditions. Maps are presented for each season and year. The data are then analyzed to see if there are detectable trends of longer terms against this backdrop of climate variability for Canada as a whole, and for 11 climate regions. This information is presented as graphs with trend lines to assess climate change over the period of record, starting in 1948 when nation-wide records became available.

 

Winter National Temperature Departures and Long-term Trend, 1948–2025

 

 

 This isn’t about measuring GW. This is about using the most appropriate 30 year period to determine what normals are. Due to GW, normals have increased a couple of degrees over the last few decades as you know. Thus, 1951-80 has been outdated for decades to use to determine normals, which are always changing.

[EasternLI]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yet, and this may have already been mentioned, most modeling shows the upcoming MJO having an affinity for the Maritime Continent. 

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

Yes. Much of that has to do with modeled tropical cyclone activity. Mainly Typhoon Dolphin and 94W in the near term. Other stuff is modeled beyond that too. TC's can play some games with those RMM charts sometimes rendering them misleading. I enjoy looking at the MJO a little more in depth when I am able to. Including satellite obs. Notice around the MC it's actually mostly clear. The underlying MJO signal is poised to make it's way across the west Pacific then interact with the el nino. Beginning to offer amplification as it continues working its way further east during week 2. Aiding a powerful WWB as a result. That's my take on it anyway.  

[EasternLI]

Today's run shows it well too.

[GaWx]

The latest WCS daily PDO has fallen to -2.19, which is the lowest since way back on 8/29/25! This plunge was not predicted AFAIK:

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The latest WCS daily PDO has fallen to -2.19, which is the lowest since way back on 8/29/25! This plunge was not predicted AFAIK:

 

Likely has something to do with that warm blob south of the aleutians. Not a typical pattern in a growing el nino, but as the NH season cools, that blob should get slowly shunted east as the north pac jet strengthens. We’ve seen the PDO dive in the spring and summer, and then slowly climb in the fall and winter, time and again and this year probably will be no exception. We may even break positive this time with the super nino.

 

[jaxjagman]

40 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yes. Much of that has to do with modeled tropical cyclone activity. Mainly Typhoon Dolphin and 94W in the near term. Other stuff is modeled beyond that too. TC's can play some games with those RMM charts sometimes rendering them misleading. I enjoy looking at the MJO a little more in depth when I am able to. Including satellite obs. Notice around the MC it's actually mostly clear. The underlying MJO signal is poised to make it's way across the west Pacific then interact with the el nino. Beginning to offer amplification as it continues working its way further east during week 2. Aiding a powerful WWB as a result. That's my take on it anyway.  

Typhoons in East Asia can definite cause unexpected pattern changes.But the problem is at least to me is there are two phoons while the strongest phoon is directed towards east China,the phoon is the WP actually to some extent counters the phoon headed towards China,you dont see no big height rises into the Koreas into Japan.The -NAO right now is just as well a player,heat should return in the plains along with the MJO moving into the MC,WP,this is MHO

[LakePaste25]

 

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

Pretty sure they were pondering if it could eventually be a modoki, not that is was one already.  If you told him that though, he'd block you because hes a puss

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 Amazingly, the very next CFSv2 run of AAM (0Z on 8/2/26) is even more extreme overall than the posted prior run making it the most extreme I’ve ever seen although this one never quite gets all 4 at 4+ simultaneously (so the first week and last few days are only parts not more extreme): this one already has two at 4+ at day 20! @snowman19

The amazing runs keep coming! The 12Z 8/2/26 CFSv2 has the strongest AAM for forecast days ~12-23 that I’ve seen/saved! The mean hits 3 on day 12, 3.5 on day 16, and 4 on day 17 or 18! There are 3 of 4 members at 4+ on day 19 or 20 through day 22! Afterward, it isn’t quite as impressive as the last run and the far right isn’t as impressive as the last 2 although it’s still very impressive:@snowman19

[annunciated]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The amazing runs keep coming! The 12Z 8/2/26 CFSv2 has the strongest AAM for forecast days ~12-23 that I’ve seen/saved! The mean hits 3 on day 12, 3.5 on day 16, and 4 on day 17 or 18! There are 3 of 4 members at 4+ on day 19 or 20 through day 22! Afterward, it isn’t quite as impressive as the last run and the far right isn’t as impressive as the last 2 although it’s still very impressive:@snowman19

 

If I cant find any plots that show above 4C for AAM, then I'll have to compute to see what it is, but I'd really like to see the maxima on these runs because my goodness...lol

[snowman19]

@GaWx @bluewave @donsutherland1 @40/70 Benchmark @csnavywx @Isotherm @raindancewx @Stormchaserchuck1 @BlizzardWx @LakePaste25 @EasternLI

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

 

 

The spring ++PMM leading to an east-based/EP El Niño worked out perfectly! @Stormchaserchuck1 That research paper was actually a very good one that we saw verify



Region 1+2:

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx @bluewave @donsutherland1 @40/70 Benchmark @csnavywx @Isotherm @raindancewx @Stormchaserchuck1 @BlizzardWx @LakePaste25 @EasternLI

 

 

 

 

I've said before I'm not a big fan of the ELI, and frankly disagree it's more east-based than 1997, but I also don't think that it matters.

Solar is another reason to bet against the 2009 and 1957 analogs.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Another big arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

Region 1+2:

 

 

Cool. I like those moving X-Y plots. There aren't enough Super Nino analogs. The database is too small, so common sense has to be used as to what it means in the northern latitudes. For example, many previous Super Nino's had a cold season +EPO and +AO/somewhat +NAO, which has less to do with ENSO. Super Nino effects the North Pacific High, primarily. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

The amazing runs keep coming! The 12Z 8/2/26 CFSv2 has the strongest AAM for forecast days ~12-23 that I’ve seen/saved! The mean hits 3 on day 12, 3.5 on day 16, and 4 on day 17 or 18! There are 3 of 4 members at 4+ on day 19 or 20 through day 22! Afterward, it isn’t quite as impressive as the last run and the far right isn’t as impressive as the last 2 although it’s still very impressive:@snowman19

I'm surprised the N. Hemisphere pattern isn't going more +AAM like, which is a GOA low (usually around -100dm even in the warm season with +4 GLAAM), and a High south of Greenland, also approaching +100dm.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

The latest WCS daily PDO has fallen to -2.19, which is the lowest since way back on 8/29/25! This plunge was not predicted AFAIK:

Wow! Keep in mind July 2025 currently holds the all time monthly PDO record in either state, with -4.2. Oct 2024 was the all time monthly record before that, since the mid 1800s, at -3.8. I know they edited the monthly marks so I want to double check but the site is currently down.

Aug being possibly the 7th month in a row with -PNA is a big reason why it's dropping so much. Will it start effecting things different as we move toward the cold season? Perhaps, but -PDO decadal is almost as much of an anomaly as El Nino currently is. 

Having the two together like this is probably coming up on a 6std happening! Exciting!

[GaWx]

 Brand new BoM remains full steam ahead to a record shattering RONI! This includes once again a record rapid rise within just one month (July to August). Also, it still doesn’t fall steeply after the peak totally unlike the V-shaped CFSv2 curve:

[OSUmetstud]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've said before I'm not a big fan of the ELI, and frankly disagree it's more east-based than 1997, but I also don't think that it matters.

Solar is another reason to bet against the 2009 and 1957 analogs.

The TNI is the more typical way to look at it and with Nino 4 historically warm right now it's going to be hard to more east-based than 1997. 

[snowman19]

The east-based forcing is absolutely believable. Why? Because we have the 30C isotherm all the way east of the dateline now and it’s still moving further east, being pushed by the non stop WWBs and DWKWs. The models have it getting all the way to 140W. This has never happened before in weather record history and the convection is going to follow it


 

 

 

In other news, the +IOD is getting stronger quickly, it’s now up to +0.63 from +0.44 last week. The models are also getting stronger with it this fall



 

 

[csnavywx]

10 hours ago, FPizz said:

Pretty sure they were pondering if it could eventually be a modoki, not that is was one already.  If you told him that though, he'd block you because hes a puss

Pretty obvious it wasn't going to be a Modoki from early on given the unusual off-equator WWBs and strength of the subsequent WWBs near the equator. It was catchable by late March-early April and dead easy call to make by late May.

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where is the July verification composite from, the JMA site?

It just came out. One of  the strongest July CGT patterns on record. This was the opposite of what we have had with past developing super El Niños.

The strong ridge north of Hawaii lead to the big warming there and the steep -PDO drop. Seasonal model runs from May completely missed this pattern. 

So the main question now is what caused such a strong disconnect between the El Niño tropical forcing and the mid-latitude pattern?

While most 2020s years have seen the -PDO peak during the summer and move more toward neutral in the winter, even a lingering 10% to 20% atmospheric -PDO state  into the winter would be a first for such a strong east based event. 

My guess is that if this were to have some influence into next winter, it would probably lead to some type of shift in the state of the Aleutian low complex relative to 1997-1998. Not really expecting the seasonal models to be of much help here.

While we know that all past super El Niño events have featured warmer winters in the East, the details of where the strongest ridge axis sets up will provide the finer details.  

A strong +PDO atmospheric east based super event like 1997-1998 was very warm. This event is even stronger and starting out with more of a -PDO atmospheric state than other developing super El Niños. 

So we’ll have to monitor if the ridge axis remains further south or east than past super El Niños. But even a traditional super El Niño ridge axis south of Hudson Bay is warm on its own. 
 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05825-6

[GaWx]

Relative 3.4 (weekly) remains notably lower than what this OISST graph suggests: graph suggests it was ~1.9 last week and NOAA has it at only 1.5  

 

22JUL2026         3.0        1.8        1.4        0.3
 29JUL2026         3.2        2.1        1.5        0.2

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

@snowman19any comment on this big discrepancy? I could accept without questioning it 0.1 or perhaps even a 0.2 difference. But 0.4 makes no sense! The graph shows it hasn’t been 1.5 since 4 weeks ago.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The east-based forcing is absolutely believable. Why? Because we have the 30C isotherm all the way east of the dateline now and it’s still moving further east, being pushed by the non stop WWBs and DWKWs. The models have it getting all the way to 140W. This has never happened before in weather record history and the convection is going to follow it


 

 

 

In other news, the +IOD is getting stronger quickly, it’s now up to +0.63 from +0.44 last week. The models are also getting stronger with it this fall



 

 

Good morning S19. The SST measurement…. Is it strictly a surface temperature or is there any depth that also defines it. The thought of ocean surface temperatures approaching 90F, as shown on the graphic is sobering. Thank you, as always ……

[snowman19]

Something has got to give with the PDO/extratropics. The models continue the massive Nino forcing annd coupling into the fall. The fall is when ENSO effects on the mid-latitudes become much more pronounced and continue to increase into the winter. Call me the crazy one, but I just can’t see the -PDO continuing beyond November and I’m confident that we see a rapid rise during met fall and an eventual flip to weak positive by the end of met fall

[snowman19]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Relative 3.4 (weekly) remains notably lower than what this OISST graph suggests: graph suggests it was ~1.9 last week and NOAA has it at only 1.5  

 

22JUL2026         3.0        1.8        1.4        0.3
 29JUL2026         3.2        2.1        1.5        0.2

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

@snowman19any comment on this big discrepancy? I could accept without questioning it 0.1 or perhaps even a 0.2 difference. But 0.4 makes no sense! The graph shows it hasn’t been 1.5 since 4 weeks ago.

I have no explanation. It makes no sense when compared to the OISST RONI. The BOM and NOAA are and have been in complete disagreement. The BOM has the official weekly readings consistently much higher than NOAA’s