2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

44 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

72-73 was followed by a strong la nina (part of a triple la nina), and preceded by a double la nina:

1970-71 - moderate la nina

1971-72 - weak la nina

1972-73 - super el nino

1973-74 - strong la nina

1974-75 - weak la nina

1975-76 - strong la nina

^Only other period on record to have 5/6 La Nina's, until 2020-2026 (RONI):

20-21: Moderate La Nina

21-22: Moderate La Nina

22-23: Moderate La Nina

23-24: Moderate El Nino

24-25: Moderate La Nina

25-26: Weak La Nina

ENSO tends to even out, historically. Here is what followed the 70-76 streak:

76-77: Moderate El Nino

77-78: Moderate El Nino

78-79: Neutral

79-80: Weak El Nino

80-81: Neutral

81-82: Neutral

82-83: Super El Nino

Really interesting that we didn't see another La Nina for 7 years after 70-76.

Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)

 

07-12 was 4/5 La Nina's, then didn't see another one for 4 years, and 3 years later 15-16 was Super El Nino. 

86-95 was 4 El Nino's vs 1 La Nina, and was followed by 4/6 La Nina's. 

95-01 was 4 La Nina's vs 1 El Nino, and flipped to 2 El Nino, 2 Neutral, 0 La Nina's for 4 years, and the 97-98 Super El Nino was in there.

ENSO "evening out" is the theme. It would be interesting to see if pre-1948 followed the same pattern. 

 

*The 76-83 4 El Nino vs 0 La Nina was followed by only 2 El Nino's in the following 8 years in +PDO, and the Strongest La Nina on record (88-89) occurred in that period.