2026-2027 Super El Nino

[so_whats_happening]

So when can we start to discuss the differences between how these two similiarish ENSO events will evolve?

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 @forkyfork @LakePaste25 The projected median (peak) of +3.0C RONI come November would be an all-time record on that index. The projected median (peak) of +3.4C traditional ONI, also come November, would be an all-time record as well
 

It will be interesting to see how strong the ongoing and rapidly developing El Niño becomes. Only the 1997-98, 2015-16, and 2023-24 El Niño events saw the 6-week moving average for Region 3.4 reach or exceed +0.9°C in June or July. 

[Typhoon Tip]

As the humanity bus goes over the cliff…

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

So when can we start to discuss the differences between how these two similiarish ENSO events will evolve?

 

 Thanks. Some of us have already been discussing ‘26-7 vs ‘97-8. On Saturday I posted that per the Euro progs, ‘26-7 is looking to evolve into a much less E based Nino than ‘97-8, which became the most E based Nino on record (back to 1951-2). When I refer to E based, I’m referring to the differences between 1+2 and 3 vs 3.4 and 4. This is what I posted:

 

More on 97. Here were the monthlies:

                     1+2       3          4  

    3.4
1997   6   26.12    3.00   28.13    1.51   29.23    0.26   28.82    1.09
1997   7   25.59    3.63   27.90    2.09   29.37    0.47   28.86    1.56
1997   8   24.96    3.96   27.71    2.59   29.29    0.50   28.75    1.89
1997   9   24.69    3.96   27.74    2.84   29.44    0.68   28.85    2.13
1997  10   24.69    3.67   28.06    3.08   29.34    0.58   29.08    2.36
1997  11   26.12    4.47   28.37    3.27   29.39    0.69   29.12    2.41
1997  12   27.06    4.25   28.53    3.30   29.11    0.57   28.89    2.29
1998   1   28.12    3.55   28.74    3.08   28.95    0.64   28.93    2.38
1998   2   28.74    2.64   28.90    2.49   28.79    0.59   28.78    2.03

 1+2 (peak 4.47) and 3 (peak 3.3) were way, way stronger than 4, which remained just wk (peak 0.69) and even way stronger than 3.4 (peak 2.41)!

 The forecast for ‘26 is much stronger in 3.4/4 and stronger in 3, but not as strong in 1+2:

Per latest Euro, here are peak non-rel. monthlies:

1+2: 3.9

3:    3.9

3.4: 3.7

4:    2.4

 That’s only a contrast of 1.5 from E to W compared to 3.8 in ‘97! And contrast from 1+2 to 3.4 is a mere 0.2 vs 2.1 in ‘97!! So, the prog is for ‘26 to be E based but way more balanced and thus not nearly as E based as the extremely E based ‘97.

 

[so_whats_happening]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks. Some of us have already been discussing ‘26-7 vs ‘97-8. On Saturday I posted that per the Euro progs, ‘26-7 is looking to evolve into a much less E based Nino than ‘97-8, which became the most E based Nino on record (back to 1951-2). When I refer to E based, I’m referring to the differences between 1+2 and 3 vs 3.4 and 4. This is what I posted:

 

More on 97. Here were the monthlies:

                     1+2       3          4  

    3.4
1997   6   26.12    3.00   28.13    1.51   29.23    0.26   28.82    1.09
1997   7   25.59    3.63   27.90    2.09   29.37    0.47   28.86    1.56
1997   8   24.96    3.96   27.71    2.59   29.29    0.50   28.75    1.89
1997   9   24.69    3.96   27.74    2.84   29.44    0.68   28.85    2.13
1997  10   24.69    3.67   28.06    3.08   29.34    0.58   29.08    2.36
1997  11   26.12    4.47   28.37    3.27   29.39    0.69   29.12    2.41
1997  12   27.06    4.25   28.53    3.30   29.11    0.57   28.89    2.29
1998   1   28.12    3.55   28.74    3.08   28.95    0.64   28.93    2.38
1998   2   28.74    2.64   28.90    2.49   28.79    0.59   28.78    2.03

 1+2 (peak 4.47) and 3 (peak 3.3) were way, way stronger than 4, which remained just wk (peak 0.69) and even way stronger than 3.4 (peak 2.41)!

 The forecast for ‘26 is much stronger in 3.4/4 and stronger in 3, but not as strong in 1+2:

Per latest Euro, here are peak non-rel. monthlies:

1+2: 3.9

3:    3.9

3.4: 3.7

4:    2.4

 That’s only a contrast of 1.5 from E to W compared to 3.8 in ‘97! And contrast from 1+2 to 3.4 is a mere 0.2 vs 2.1 in ‘97!! So, the prog is for ‘26 to be E based but way more balanced and thus not nearly as E based as the extremely E based ‘97.

 

A lot of this gets lost in the miasma of whatever happens in this thread. Thanks and I agree while records could be set if things set up perfectly that contrast west to east is important in overall effects we will see in the CONUS. We have not been able to get the contrast of warm east cool west of the tropical Pacific for awhile. I would like to think a quicker onset of the Nino might play a role in the winter outcome as well.