2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

June PNA will likely finish <-1, but it doesn't have a high correlation to the Winter, surprisingly

[snowman19]

The EPAC has come alive….invests/convection galore. I think this has a very good chance of being a historic TC season in the EPAC
 

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

 

This past November was in 2025.

Part of the reason this El Niño is becoming record breaking so early on is due to the accumulation of record SST warmth in the WPAC. The WWBs beginning in November 2025 started the kelvin waves and warm push eastward.

These are record breaking WWBs that we haven’t seen since the late 1990s. So a record WPAC warm pool initiation plus record WWBs equal a record El Niño.

Also note how Nino 1+2 never fully cooled off after the last super El Niño in 2023-2024. So it’s no surprise that this event is becoming so strong given the much warmer background state that it’s originating in.

Past climate reconstructions along with modeling support the idea that it’s normal for El Niños to become more frequent and stronger as the world warms. So the 2020s will be the first decade with super El Niños over +2.0° occurring only 3 years apart.

 

https://apnews.com/article/4379af505f994766a4fa332e9c7a923a

https://www.colorado.edu/today/2024/09/25/1-2-el-nino-events-could-be-extreme-mid-century

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.354.6317.1210

 

 

 

 

 

18 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah but the maps of Austrailia are from 2025,not 2026,its not as warm as those are showing,just saying

 

[GaWx]

Nino 3.4 warmed only 0.2 in today’s release for last week averaged out vs the prior week from 0.5 to 0.7 vs my guess based on daily OISST levels/changes of it warming 0.3 (from 0.5 to 0.8). But this difference could possibly be mainly due to rounding. For example, perhaps the prior week was, say, +0.46 vs last week being, say, +0.74 or whatever.

 It has gotten more E based the last 5 weeks but (as per what I recently posted) the Euro doesn’t have it getting more E based overall from this point forward and thus keeps it from getting anywhere near as E based as 1997-8:

 

                            1+2          3          3.4      4

29APR2026         0.6        0.4        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.7        0.7

 

[olafminesaw]

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

More traditional June El Niño 500 mb pattern forecast for next week as this record El Niño continues to intensify.

 

[mitchnick]

On 6/7/2026 at 9:16 AM, snowman19 said:

 

 

“No surprises in the latest NMME climate model output. Niño intensity has ticked up in a few of the models (the CanESM5 was one of the last moderate Niño holdouts last month but it's all in on a near-record event now). I think the NCAR CESM1 broke or something this month.

The response looks extremely classic too. Wet anomalies across the tropical Pacific, with the NE and Central Pacific also active thanks to the +PMM. The Atlantic will be dry and hostile for basically the whole season, with drought possible in the Caribbean. The Gulf Coast will likely have a wet and stormy winter as the subtropical jet gets cranking.”

 

You forgot to mention temps/precip on the NMME are pretty sweet for winter lovers in the east for Dec-Feb.

Individual months look decent as well imho. Links start in December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=T2ma_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6

 

[LakePaste25]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You forgot to mention temps/precip on the NMME are pretty sweet for winter lovers in the east for Dec-Feb.

Individual months look decent as well imho. Links start in December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=T2ma_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6

 

I imagine most of that will be rain, but there’s always the chance for a big snow storm just like in 15-16, 82-83, etc 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

I imagine most of that will be rain, but there’s always the chance for a big snow storm just like in 15-16, 82-83, etc 

There will certainly be rainstorms as any winter, but considering the light tan is only +.5C and the next level up is only +1C, there would certainly be plenty of snow threats in there imho with such small AN progs. Plus, the individual month maps for January and February look even better.

[snowman19]

No surprise in the EPAC. Super El Niño/++PMM at work. Explosive setup for a huge TC season….

[forkyfork]

strongest nino in history and we're still on the backyard snow talk

[LakePaste25]

Yeah but this shiny looking map says I’m going to have near normal temps 6 months from now in december in a record breaking super nino 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

strongest nino in history and we're still on the backyard snow talk

Conditions on the earth a couple thousand+ miles from mby are meaningless to me except how they effect weather imby.

[forkyfork]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Conditions on the earth a couple thousand+ miles from mby are meaningless to me except how they effect weather imby.

so post about it in your local subforum

[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You forgot to mention temps/precip on the NMME are pretty sweet for winter lovers in the east for Dec-Feb.

Individual months look decent as well imho. Links start in December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=T2ma_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6

 

 -Unlike Cansips, these NMME maps look typical/more believable for a strong Nino. 

-The strong Nino very typical wetness (starting as early as Oct on this run but I usually bank on the start in Nov) gives a lot of hope that the bad but somewhat improved drought in the SE will be mainly history by mid to late winter.

- These maps are consistent with the El Niño winters that had one major to possibly historic SE US snowstorm like has occurred in many El Niños.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah but this shiny looking map says I’m going to have near normal temps 6 months from now in december in a record breaking super nino 

So you can post verbatim model conditions if they suggest a furnace but not if the same model suggests conditions otherwise? 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

so post about it in your local subforum

I said weather in the east.

[bluewave]

Those seasonal model 2m temperatures typically run way too cool especially with super El Ninos like we saw in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016.

This has been the case with all the seasonal models. Even the forecasts issued in November were still too cool

 

NMME DJF 2023-2024 long range forecast issued August 2023

Verification

 

 

DJF 2015-2016 long range forecast issued August 2015

Verification

 

[LakePaste25]

Just now, mitchnick said:

So you can post verbatim model conditions if they suggest a furnace but not if the same model suggests conditions otherwise? 

Why would I even look at what models are showing next winter with more than a grain of salt when it’s only June? I am focused on how this is developing and summer analogs. I will check on that in October. 

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I said weather in the east.

we're facing the biggest global climate disruption of our lives

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we're facing the biggest global climate disruption of our lives

The weather is what counts, and I'm not seeing anything different than previous extremes being forecasted by the same models forecasting your "global climate disruption." In fact, there's yet to be an agreement on the resulting weather.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Why would I even look at what models are showing next winter with more than a grain of salt when it’s only June? I am focused on how this is developing and summer analogs. I will check on that in October. 

Nobody is forcing anyone to consider any model. But if someone posts a model's SSTA forecast, what's so wrong or unusual about posting it's resulting weather forecast. It's done all the time. 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those seasonal model 2m temperatures typically run way too cool especially with super El Ninos like we saw in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016. 

NMME DJF 2023-2024 long range forecast issued August 2023

Verification

 

 

DJF 2015-2016 long range forecast issued August 2015

Verification

 

Thanks, Chris

-Long range model winter forecasts have, indeed, tended to be too cold on average based on my recollection although the Euro has missed on both sides. So, I wouldn’t be shocked if 25-6 also comes in warmer than today’s forecast, but that remains to be seen.

-But keep in mind that you essentially are showing a super Nino sample size of just one (2015-6 done in August) since 2023-4 wasn’t a true super (RONI peaked at only +1.49). ONI had ~0.5C excess due to very warm surrounding tropical waters from GW inflating the ONI.

-Also, other super Ninos had a fairly similar temp. pattern to what the NMME shows overall.

[snowman19]

@bluewave @donsutherland1 @forkyfork @LakePaste25 The projected median (peak) of +3.0C RONI come November would be an all-time record on that index. The projected median (peak) of +3.4C traditional ONI, also come November, would be an all-time record as well
 

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

we're facing the biggest global climate disruption of our lives

It's not clicking with people who don't live in reality 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

we're facing the biggest global climate disruption of our lives

I think it's just catching up to the -ENSO state we have held since 1998. ENSO tends to balance, historically. The thing with global temperature is that it would have actually been going higher if we had an equal number of + an - ENSO events over the last 28 years! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Pretty strong Solar Max 2-3 years ago. We are hitting this +ENSO +time wrt Solar Cycle. 

Based on the far extent of the aurora borealis and now how strong this El Nino is getting, it is possible that the Solar Max as reported was underestimated, or the Earths magnetic field is weaker (just an unsubstantiated theory). 

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

we're facing the biggest global climate disruption of our lives

I'm pretty sure we will all pull through just fine...

[Brewbeer]

Those of us with access to resources will probably manage ok and pull through just fine.  
It’s the ones who don’t that we need to be thinking about.