2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^You were right about the lagged warming after the SOI. 

[chubbs]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Wow! The latest update for OISST (June 4th) has a massive warming for one day: 0.189C! That’s the strongest one day warming since way back on March 6th! The last 4 days have warmed a hair over 0.4C or a whopping 0.1C/day! That’s the fastest 4 day warming on this entire chart, even exceeding the ~0.36C of April 11th-15th. See far right side of the image below. The strong -SOI is doing its magic on its typically couple of week delayed basis vs when the strong negative strong started.

 This means the 6/5/26 RONI equivalent daily is already up to the +0.8 to +0.9 range!

 Implications for Monday’s weekly 3.4 update: at the very least an increase of 0.2C to 0.7C relative 3.4. There’s a good shot at an increase of 0.3 to 0.8 relative 3.4 if this continues to rise on the next 2 days’ updates:

Check out today’s and last 4 days’ warming!

The recent spike has sent daily Nino 3.4 temps well into record territory.

[bluewave]

Record breaking WWB for this time of year driving those record Nino 3.4 SSTs.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/4/2026 at 1:01 PM, LakePaste25 said:

I agree, but verbatim the model run posted is not a classic +PNA/-EPO look that we tend to see in weaker Ninos. There may be periods of it, however which could be factored in the ensemble mean. I just wouldn’t take those blues in the South as “winter-like cold that supports snowfall most of the month.” 

 

 

Yea, that's how I feel. I don't see it showing up in the seasonal mean like the CANSIPS implies, but probably periods of it, especially in the 2nd half.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Euro and CANSIPS completely different over the EPO domain for the Winter. 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Indeed, Don, the Euro’s June prog has the strongest (“monster” as you said) on record. And I agree it’s looking E based. But it’s not currently looking nearly as E based as 97-8 based on peak fall/winter differences between 1+2 and 3.4/4 per the latest Euro. And it’s not even looking as E based as 1982-3 per these same differences.

It might not be as east-based as either of those two ENSO events, but there's still a lot of time before the anomalies peak. It looks solidly east-based, perhaps evolving into a basinwide event as it weakens.