snowman19 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 The ++PMM continues to get stronger@donsutherland1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sux to be those other places. But most are centered around the I95 concrete jungle heat island. No surprise there and to be expected as the development has not ended. The more rural observation sites are ranked just as high for the 90° day rankings as the urban ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: The more rural observation sites are ranked just as high for the 90° day rankings as the urban ones. Nope. You're apparently centered on I95 locations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Do we make it 6 months in a row of -PNA? 5940dm block over the PNA region is not a typical El Nino pattern. We aren't seeing that El Nino low pressure in the North Pacific at all, although at times US and Europe conditions have been close match. -PNA is another promising sign for this upcoming winter. 2009-10 was a -PNA, as well as 1957-58 and 1965-66 to a lesser extent. If we can get the -NAO/-PNA/near neutral PDO combo, like in 2009-10, this winter may be decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 36 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: -PNA is another promising sign for this upcoming winter. 2009-10 was a -PNA, as well as 1957-58 and 1965-66 to a lesser extent. If we can get the -NAO/-PNA/near neutral PDO combo, like in 2009-10, this winter may be decent. Idk about all that but clearly the super Nino is not fully in charge of our weather. We're getting a lot of Nina influences which makes forecasting winter very challenging. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The ++PMM continues to get stronger@donsutherland1 The strong and strengthening PMM+ is noteworthy. It will likely have an influence on the upcoming seasons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 On 6/27/2026 at 7:28 AM, bluewave said: Big warming north of Hawaii and with the +AMO increase off the East Coast are associated with record 100°+ heat being forecast in the East to start July. This has more in common with La Niña than a super El Niño in July. Notice how nearly all the analog dates are developing or established La Niña Summers. So while the daily PDO is closer to neutral than at this time last year, the atmospheric 500 mb pattern more resembles La Niña over North America. I'll take the 2014 shout out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: 2009-10 is not even remotely close to being an analog. It’s actually the worst “analog” known to man for this event, I don’t know why you continue to insist that it is I don't think it is a terrible analog for certain points throughout the second half of the season. I don't know why you continue to perceive analogs as being some absolute inference of a replica season. It's akin to tossing the 1997 analog because this one is more basin wide, which would of course be folly. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No, it’s not basin-wide like 2015. Since the biggest player this winter, by far and away is going to be a record-breaking super El Niño, 2009-10 doesn’t match, not one iota. This Nino is going to be a completely overwhelming signal that will trump anything else in the atmosphere or the rest of the oceans. It’s not an analog, not even close. We disagree. This is going to be a very easy winter to predict, there’s nothing hard or challenging about it, not at all. Easiest one in years. And I don’t agree at all with your assessment that this El Nino developing like 2015-16. This one is very, very clearly east-based and it’s going to stay that way. We can split atoms all we want and say it’s “hybrid”, “basin-wide”, “migrating Modoki”, “in betweener” or whatever other adjectives we can come up with and it’s not going to change that fact. It’s been abundantly clear for a month now that this is easily going to be the strongest super El Niño since 1950, at the very least, more likely the strongest one of all time, both in RONI and ONI Aren't all the nino regions currently above the .5 threshold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 39 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No, it’s not basin-wide like 2015. Since the biggest player this winter, by far and away is going to be a record-breaking super El Niño, 2009-10 doesn’t match, not one iota. This Nino is going to be a completely overwhelming signal that will trump anything else in the atmosphere or the rest of the oceans. It’s not an analog, not even close. We disagree. This is going to be a very easy winter to predict, there’s nothing hard or challenging about it, not at all. Easiest one in years. And I don’t agree at all with your assessment that this El Nino developing like 2015-16. This one is very, very clearly east-based and it’s going to stay that way. We can split atoms all we want and say it’s “hybrid”, “basin-wide”, “migrating Modoki”, “in betweener” or whatever other adjectives we can come up with and it’s not going to change that fact. It’s been abundantly clear for a month now that this is easily going to be the strongest super El Niño since 1950, at the very least, more likely the strongest one of all time, both in RONI and ONI I think you need to keep an open-mind, as I tried to tell you last year at this time when you kept preaching about "canonical-front loaded La Niña". We all make mistakes, as lord knows I have (see 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2023), but the hope is that each mistake pries the mind open a little more and causes us to be more exhaustive in our approach, and less dismissive and derogatory towards alternative points of view. Latest anomalies from east (1.2) to west (4) 2026 17JUN2026 26.1 3.0 28.5 1.9 29.3 1.7 30.2 1.3 2023 14JUN2023 25.9 2.7 27.8 1.2 28.6 0.9 29.5 0.6 2015 17JUN2015 25.1 2.0 28.0 1.5 28.7 1.1 29.7 0.8 1997 18JUN1997 25.8 2.7 27.8 1.3 28.5 0.9 29.0 0.1 Sure looks basin-wide to me, and is forecast to remain as such. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 I am willing to bet @snowman19 $100 we see a NESIS level storm on the east coast during the coming season....should be "easy" money for you, right? 'Cmon....I'll hook you up- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think you need to keep an open-mind, as I tried to tell you last year at this time when you kept preaching about "canonical-front loaded La Niña". We all make mistakes, as lord knows I have (see 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2023), but the hope is that each mistake pries the mind open a little more and causes us to be more exhaustive in our approach, and less dismissive and derogatory towards alternative points of view. Latest anomalies from east (1.2) to west (4) 2026 17JUN2026 26.1 3.0 28.5 1.9 29.3 1.7 30.2 1.3 2023 14JUN2023 25.9 2.7 27.8 1.2 28.6 0.9 29.5 0.6 2015 17JUN2015 25.1 2.0 28.0 1.5 28.7 1.1 29.7 0.8 1997 18JUN1997 25.8 2.7 27.8 1.3 28.5 0.9 29.0 0.1 Sure looks basin-wide to me, and is forecast to remain as such. One key characteristic of an east based event is the thermocline has an even or even slightly downward slope from W to E which is what tends to shut down MC convection. Still sloping the other way although you can see may have turned the corner out near 120E. We will see if this propagates across or not. Even if this is east based, I am going to say the same thing which is mostly above normal winter with windows of opportunity for a KU event. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 I always thought a true Modoki or west based El Nino had 1+2 below Nino threshold or even negative. I recall discussion on that here sometime in the past when Bastardi would call any Nino with 1+2 having a lower anomaly than 4 a Modoki and people would say that is incorrect. So wouldn't the same apply to an east based Nino just opposite? 1997 at this time had a true east based Nino IMO with region 4 at 0.1. If having the entire Nino basin be above 0.5 isn't basin wide then I guess I don't even know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: No, it’s not basin-wide like 2015. Since the biggest player this winter, by far and away is going to be a record-breaking super El Niño, 2009-10 doesn’t match, not one iota. This Nino is going to be a completely overwhelming signal that will trump anything else in the atmosphere or the rest of the oceans. It’s not an analog, not even close. We disagree. This is going to be a very easy winter to predict, there’s nothing hard or challenging about it, not at all. Easiest one in years. And I don’t agree at all with your assessment that this El Nino developing like 2015-16. This one is very, very clearly east-based and it’s going to stay that way. We can split atoms all we want and say it’s “hybrid”, “basin-wide”, “migrating Modoki”, “in betweener” or whatever other adjectives we can come up with and it’s not going to change that fact. It’s been abundantly clear for a month now that this is easily going to be the strongest super El Niño since 1950, at the very least, more likely the strongest one of all time, both in RONI and ONI These are progging 4 to get way up to +2.4 to +2.5, which is way higher than the record high of only +1.5 (‘23-4), +1.4 (‘15-6), +1.2 (‘09-10), +1.1 (‘68-9), +1.0 (‘18-9). Even the relatives for ‘26 on CFS/Euro are way up at ~+2.0! ‘97-8 and ‘82-3 were only +0.7! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 22 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: One key characteristic of an east based event is the thermocline has an even or even slightly downward slope from W to E which is what tends to shut down MC convection. Still sloping the other way although you can see may have turned the corner out near 120E. We will see if this propagates across or not. Even if this is east based, I am going to say the same thing which is mostly above normal winter with windows of opportunity for a KU event. I am willing to concede that the seasonal mean is going to more closely resemble the east-based composite given the shear magnitude of anomalies throughout the basin, but I think there is enough going on to the west to ensure window(s) of opportunity as climo grows more favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 My larger concern is MC competition a la 2023 versus how strongly east-based it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: These designations aren’t black and white/official. I like to look at the differences. For ex., I’d call a +3.0 in both Nino 1+2/3 and a +1.0 in 4 E based. But I’d call a 0 in Nino 1+2/3 and a +0.8 in Nino 4 Modoki. What we need is the designation of basin wide east based Nino. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 I’m wondering if W Yellowstone Gateway, which is at 6,666 ft, could get some snow: ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT MONDAY... * WHAT...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEETINCLUDING THE CITIES OF BIG SKY, WEST YELLOWSTONE, TARGHEE PASS, AND RAYNOLDS PASS 942 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026 TONIGHT COLDER. RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 31 TO 37.IF W Yell. Gate can somehow get any measurable SN late tonight, it would be a new record latest in season meas. on record by 20 days! They’ve had no meas. June 9th-Sep 14th although records go back only to 2007. But even just a T would be notable as they’ve had only 2 Ts June 28th-Sep 4th since 2007:Records: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=tfx https://grizzlyrv.com/what-is-the-elevation-of-west-yellowstone/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 27 Author Share Posted June 27 4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: -PNA is another promising sign for this upcoming winter. 2009-10 was a -PNA, as well as 1957-58 and 1965-66 to a lesser extent. If we can get the -NAO/-PNA/near neutral PDO combo, like in 2009-10, this winter may be decent. 09-10 was big +PNA. It was actually +PNA every month from June 2009 to April 2010 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Idk about all that but clearly the super Nino is not fully in charge of our weather. We're getting a lot of Nina influences which makes forecasting winter very challenging. Nino isn't really in charge in the southern hemisphere either. If it were it'd be snowing feet and feet in the northern/north central andes of chile, yet it's bone dry just like a niña. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Per DMI, the daily mean temp in the Arctic N of 80N has still not reached 0C! As of today (6/27), it’s still barely <0C at -0.35C: Going all of the way back to 1958, the previous latest to first exceed 0C was a full week earlier, June 20th, and that was in 2013: So, even if it finally exceeds 0C tomorrow, that would still be a whopping 8 days later than the previous latest on record of June 20th! I checked every year. https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 09-10 was big +PNA. It was actually +PNA every month from June 2009 to April 2010 The values show -PNA for 09-10, unless this whole thing is wrong: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: The values show -PNA for 09-10, unless this whole thing is wrong: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Those are the NAO values, not PNAs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 28 Author Share Posted June 28 1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: The values show -PNA for 09-10, unless this whole thing is wrong: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table That's the NAO. I think the folder code is always pna. Here's PNA: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 28 Author Share Posted June 28 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Per DMI, the daily mean temp in the Arctic N of 80N has still not reached 0C! As of today (6/27), it’s still barely <0C at -0.35C: Going all of the way back to 1958, the previous latest to first exceed 0C was a full week earlier, June 20th, and that was in 2013: So, even if it finally exceeds 0C tomorrow, that would still be a whopping 8 days later than the previous latest on record of June 20th! I checked every year. https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php Good chance for an -AO this Winter in my opinion! The correlation to reverse conditions there between the warm and cold seasons has been strong since 2012! I think the period looked at is through September though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 22 hours ago, mitchnick said: Nope. You're apparently centered on I95 locations. Plenty of more rural to suburban stations outside the main I-95 urban corridor are high up on the list for most 90°days on record through the end of June from Eastern PA into New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 @donsutherland1 @jbenedet Very strong coupling now (ocean-atmosphere/Bjerknes feedback) showing up….the ERWs (equatorial rossby waves) are constructively interfering with El Niño. Also, classic Nino standing wave convection/-OLR, strong westerlies and consistent -SOI 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll take the 2014 shut out. The subtropical North Atlantic is the warmest on record for June 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Big amplified MJO wave push into phase 7 come early next month. This is in addition to the expected explosion of typhoons in the PAC. No doubt yet another huge WWB and subsequent DWKW is coming. +IOD expected to pop come mid-July. More warming to come. Increasing confidence that we are into a super El Niño by the time met fall starts (9/1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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