2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[LakePaste25]

Healthy +ENSO coupled mid-latitude cell showing up in the central pacific on the GEFS. W pac forcing starting to diminish. 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

I don’t even disagree with Adam about this upcoming winter in particular (the raging super El Niño forecast is backed up by current obs + guidance, it’s already approaching borderline strong territory in June). No issue with 97-98 as an analog either, but calling you a wishcaster for claiming 09-10 is an analog when that winter wasn’t even good for you is…. out there.

I don’t see why having years like 09-10 and 57-58 as ENSO analogs is so crazy, it’s the weenie implication that those analogs = an eastern burial that is an unsupported leap. Those were strong El Niños (57-58 a high end strong event), wet, and neither were frigid years like 14-15 (Adam is right to push back on the people calling that season an analog). Hell, it could be argued 57-58 wouldn’t even be that good of a winter today if we ran back that same pattern and adjusted for CC. Sure, this El Niño is stronger and more east based than 09-10, but it’s not crazy to include it as an analog. Including it as an analog does NOT mean “the mid Atlantic is getting buried again”, that required an insane sequence of luck that likely won’t be repeated in any of our lifetimes much like 14-15 in Boston. 09-10 wasn’t that cold either, it was near normal temps. I don’t think that’s a wishcast analog. 09-10 without the severe -NAO (my understanding is we are in the opposite solar phase to that year) may not even be that good of a winter. I don’t know…. If you dig into these analogs more closely there are ways to debunk the weenie narratives without name calling. 

On the other hand, 97-98 is an excellent analog, that was an eastern based super Nino which is a strong match to how this event is developing. However, as several people pointed out that doesn’t necessarily mean snowless. A 97-98 type pattern with a bit less warmth (would need some of the non ENSO factors to break right for this) could absolutely lead to a normal snow winter. The seasonal models are likely too cold, but the coastal track and wet eastern winter pattern is in line with ENSO. The big question is how much of that precip will be snow vs rain. I’m personally on the warm and BN snow side of the argument, but for fucks sake it’s at least worth hearing people with differing opinions out. Adams ENSO posts have been solid, but ya know it’s uh possible to just ignore weenies if you don’t like them and enjoy the summer if you like warmer weather. A lot of people like it warm and aren’t huge fans of the cold and snow, and those people mostly are spending time outside and couldn’t care less about what people post online about the weather.
 

You wont find any disagreement from me on expecting a milder than avg winter. Ive said it multiple times, along with the fact that my gut says the 3 main winter months will feature one horrendous month, one good month, and the third month being a wildcard. I do expect early and possibly late snows, and I dont anticipate anything close to the persistence in snowcover we saw the last 2 winters. I cant possibly get more detailed in late June, especially since I dont forecast lol.

I also know the history of strong/super Ninos weather-wise here. None are great winters...but not all are bad either, and it seems commonplace here that some pick the worst of the bunch as their "analog" without proper explanation. Whats funny is, Id take 1997-98 over 1957-58, 1965-66, or 1982-83 here. 

Id take 2009-10 over 1997-98, but I wasnt even remotely suggesting it as an analog. I was merely saying that the map mitchnick posted (which hes allowed to do) looked like it temp wise. Speaking of temps...the fact that everytime the consistently cold cansips is posted, or any other cold map, the poster and all "weenies" get attacked speaks volumes about certain people. I admit, it would be VERY interesting to see the reactions/posts in this thread if those maps were warm and if the other maps were more furnace like (since none to this point are). Suddenly it would be ok to post them!

snowman and bluewave often get lumped together for their bias. However, bluewave is a respectful poster and even when others dont agree with what he posts, he does not attack, insult, or go into a rage. Its very easy to see why snowman is post-limited.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

it’s why i always laugh when I see agencies such as AccuWeather or twitter accounts deterministically forecast seasonal snow totals in ENSO years like this. Above normal temps in the northeast and great lakes that fade towards neutral as you go south is a sure bet, but nobody can predict whether places like DCA will get a single storm that produces 150% of their seasonal totals. 

Every El Nino and La Nina is a copy/paste of the same maps.

[snowman19]

44 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Healthy +ENSO coupled mid-latitude cell showing up in the central pacific on the GEFS. W pac forcing starting to diminish. 
 
 

Yes. It is extremely well coupled….SOI, OLR/standing wave convection, WWBs/westerlies and GLAAM. Once the +IOD really going the coupling is only going to increase more

Record high GLAAM:

 

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

I don’t even disagree with Adam about this upcoming winter in particular (the raging super El Niño forecast is backed up by current obs + guidance, it’s already approaching borderline strong territory in June). No issue with 97-98 as an analog either, but calling you a wishcaster for claiming 09-10 is an analog when that winter wasn’t even good for you is…. out there.

I don’t see why having years like 09-10 and 57-58 as ENSO analogs is so crazy, it’s the weenie implication that those analogs = an eastern burial that is an unsupported leap. Those were strong El Niños (57-58 a high end strong event), wet, and neither were frigid years like 14-15 (Adam is right to push back on the people calling that season an analog). Hell, it could be argued 57-58 wouldn’t even be that good of a winter today if we ran back that same pattern and adjusted for CC. Sure, this El Niño is stronger and more east based than 09-10, but it’s not crazy to include it as an analog. Including it as an analog does NOT mean “the mid Atlantic is getting buried again”, that required an insane sequence of luck that likely won’t be repeated in any of our lifetimes much like 14-15 in Boston. 09-10 wasn’t that cold either, it was near normal temps. I don’t think that’s a wishcast analog. 09-10 without the severe -NAO (my understanding is we are in the opposite solar phase to that year) may not even be that good of a winter. I don’t know…. If you dig into these analogs more closely there are ways to debunk the weenie narratives without name calling. 

On the other hand, 97-98 is an excellent analog, that was an eastern based super Nino which is a strong match to how this event is developing. However, as several people pointed out that doesn’t necessarily mean snowless. A 97-98 type pattern with a bit less warmth (would need some of the non ENSO factors to break right for this) could absolutely lead to a normal snow winter. The seasonal models are likely too cold, but the coastal track and wet eastern winter pattern is in line with ENSO. The big question is how much of that precip will be snow vs rain. I’m personally on the warm and BN snow side of the argument, but for fucks sake it’s at least worth hearing people with differing opinions out. Adams ENSO posts have been solid, but ya know it’s uh possible to just ignore weenies if you don’t like them and enjoy the summer if you like warmer weather. A lot of people like it warm and aren’t huge fans of the cold and snow, and those people mostly are spending time outside and couldn’t care less about what people post online about the weather.
 

One more thing on this...im not a big fan of Cc adjusting because of the relatively minor implications it would have, not to mention its full pf assumptions....but i do feel both 57-58 & 65-66 would be BETTER winters here today than they were at the time. 50s/60s winters as it was were very different from each other (50s much much milder) but both winters saw warm, wet decembers followed by cold/dry. While cold/dry certainly still happens, we tend to get more snow out of it nowadays. 

And im enjoying summer myself so far. Summer/Fall ahead of el ninos are usually very enjoyable.

[George001]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

One more thing on this...im not a big fan of Cc adjusting because of the relatively minor implications it would have, not to mention its full pf assumptions....but i do feel both 57-58 & 65-66 would be BETTER winters here today than they were at the time. 50s/60s winters as it was were very different from each other (50s much much milder) but both winters saw warm, wet decembers followed by cold/dry. While cold/dry certainly still happens, we tend to get more snow out of it nowadays. 

And im enjoying summer myself so far. Summer/Fall ahead of el ninos are usually very enjoyable.

Thats certainly possible they would have been better for your area now. Thats a fair point about the increased moisture nowadays. Glad to hear you are enjoying your summer. There are lots of fun things to do in the summer like fishing, hiking etc. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[snowman19]

Here is the latest sea level height rise anomalies in the eastern equatorial PAC. The only comparable El Niño event since 1980 at this point in time is 1997

[GaWx]

The Apr-June of ‘26 MJO has been about the most left-sided of any Apr-June since records started in 1975:

2026:

 

Closest years were:

2021:

 

1991:

[bluewave]

On 6/22/2026 at 7:11 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BINGO.

 

Yeah, these seasonal models are more or less just defaulting to ENSO correlations depending on the state ENSO is in at the time. So they really aren’t forecasts in the traditional sense.

This is why none of the seasonal forecasts issued relying on them came close to the magnitude of the warmth experienced since December 2015.

The common denominator to all the forecasts is that the ridge was magnitudes stronger than the original forecasts and the trough areas were generally weaker. 

None of these records were forecast beyond a week or two before they actually occurred. These extremes used to be very rare before December 2015 during  months like March 2012 or January 2006.

This is not getting very much attention since we have tended to normalize all the warmth. Plus record warmth during the winter doesn’t generate as much attention as the periods of extreme cold which have become few and far between.

The last -10 month in the Northeast during February 2015 got much more attention than most of the +10 months since then have. I chalk this up to human nature which was conditioned to fear cold from thousands of years back to the ice ages which made survival so difficult. This is why so much of the population has moved to the sun belt areas. 

Back in the 1970s when -10 months were much more common, all the talk was about an impending return of another ice age. So imagine how much attention the 17 months below would be getting if they were all -10s instead of +10s. 

The super El Niño in 2015-2016 had 2 months go 10+ from December to March with 2023-2024 also having 2 months reach this mark. None of those months like the others were forecast from the long range seasonal guidance.

It would be very challenging for any seasonal forecast to pick out the specific month and geographic location this coming 2026-2027 super El Niño that would potentially experience one of these extremes.

Forecasters just don’t feel comfortable including  +10s to their seasonal forecast maps. We seldom see much beyond a +1 to +3 area and sometimes up to +5. 
 

DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3

MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1

JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2

FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3

MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

[PhiEaglesfan712]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last -10 month in the Northeast during February 2015 got much more attention than most of the +10 months since then have.

And don't forget, in that -10 month of February 2015 in the Northeast, there were places in the West that had +10 temperature departures to balance it out.

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

And don't forget, in that -10 month of February 2015 in the Northeast, there were places in the West that had +10 temperature departures to balance it out.

At least the record cold was extensive enough that month for the entire CONUS to average a little below the long term February average.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/national/201502

• The February contiguous U.S. temperature was 33.1°F, 0.7°F below the 20^th century average, ranking near the median value in the 121-year period of record. The average February maximum (daytime) temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 44.6°F, 0.2°F below average, while the average minimum (nighttime) temperature was 21.7°F, 1.2°F below average.

[TheClimateChanger]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least the record cold was extensive enough that month for the entire CONUS to average a little below the long term February average.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/national/201502

• The February contiguous U.S. temperature was 33.1°F, 0.7°F below the 20^th century average, ranking near the median value in the 121-year period of record. The average February maximum (daytime) temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 44.6°F, 0.2°F below average, while the average minimum (nighttime) temperature was 21.7°F, 1.2°F below average.

Incredible stuff. This month will mark 17 months since the last month below the 20th century mean for the CONUS, and 16 months since the last month below the 1991-2020 mean.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

The Apr-June of ‘26 MJO has been about the most left-sided of any Apr-June since records started in 1975:

2026:

 

Closest years were:

2021:

 

1991:

A little later than the developing super El Niños in 2023, 2015, and 1997. Those years all had record amplitudes in MJO 7-2 during March. AMJ 2023 and 1997 were also focused in these phases also

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 Indeed, this latest CFS mean has about the strongest 3.4 yet whether relative or not:

Relative now peaks at +3.0C in BOTH SON and OND for the first time that I’ve seen:

 Of the ones I’ve saved, the prior highest CFS was this one from June 1st. It was also +3.0C in OND but was only +2.9C in SON:

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

While these very long range forecasts aren’t the strong suit of these seasonal models,  the subsurface cold pool is near the Dateline by next March looks weaker than 1998. The warmth in the east looks similar to March 1998. But Nino 3.4 is also much warmer than 1998.

 

[GaWx]

On 6/22/2026 at 11:50 AM, bluewave said:

The warm pool to the east of Japan began developing during the mid to late 2010s. It’s the first time the ocean there down to the subsurface has warmed this much in the modern monitoring era.

It’s appears to be due to the record 500 mb heights leading to light winds and clear skies allow the ocean below to warm. When we had the colder pool in the EPAC in recent years it lead to the record low -PDOs. In the old days the -PDOs were driven by mostly the cooler SSTs in the EPAC rather than the warm anomalies from Japan to south of the Aleutians. 

Most researchers avoid the term permanent and use persistent or new as a description. What would need to have happen to reverse this pattern would be for low pressure and strong winds to persist in this location with more clouds.

If this could be sustained for more than a few months, then there would be a shot at cooling the surface and subsurface. As long as the warm pool persisted off of California, then the PDO could transition to a more strongly positive level like we last saw back in 2015. 

Current model forecasts have this warm pool east of Japan persisting through December at the same time there is a warm pool off of California. So this effectively brings the PDO closer to neutral with overlapping warm pools from the West and East. 

Since these models aren’t the greatest for reliably beyond 8-15 days, we are just going to have to wait and see what the details will be. Plus they have missed the summer -PDO declines recent summers as the ridge to the East of Japan has verified much stronger than seasonal model forecasts. 

It appears that the subsurface reservoir of record warmth reaching to the surface has resulted in a feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere sustaining the pattern.

While it’s still very early in the El Niño process, the big increase in WWBs near and off the equator so far hasn’t had the stronger winds and lower pressures to the East of Japan and to the south of the Aleutians like the developing super El Niño 1997 had during the spring. We would want to see the westerlies increase to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians especially by next winter to have a chance to begin to get the PDO into more of a positive state. 
 

 

 

 

 

 
 The WCS daily PDO has increased from -1.4 on May 27th (per the WCS tweet being quoted) to -0.3 on June 22nd! Folks need to keep in mind that these can fluctuate a good bit from week to week. Regardless, this 1.1 rise is notable and it did occur during a significant strengthening of El Niño:

[LakePaste25]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While these very long range forecasts aren’t the strong suit of these seasonal models, notice how weak the subsurface cold pool is near the Dateline by next March. The warmth in the east looks similar to March 1998. But the cold pool is significantly smaller from the Dateline and westward. Nino 3.4 is also much warmer than 1998 by the end of the run.

 

I do think RONI matters here when you’re looking at how the W pacific SSTS can destructively interfere with things. Mostly because warm SSTAs everywhere also raise the “floor” of 500 mb GPH, so a negative relative anomaly in the W pac is probably sufficient in preventing the W pac from contributing to a rossby wave response (floor is high enough it’s not a ridge relative to GPH). Hope I’m making any sense when I theorize this. 

tldr: W pac is already becoming negative in relative terms which i think is “good enough” since height anomalies are also relative in terms of rossby waves. 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

 

 Indeed, this latest CFS mean has about the strongest 3.4 yet whether relative or not:
Relative now peaks at +3.0C in BOTH SON and OND for the first time that I’ve seen:

 Of the ones I’ve saved, the prior highest CFS was this one from June 1st. It was also +3.0C in OND but was only +2.9C in SON:

We are witnessing history and will very likely never see an El Niño event this strong again in our lifetimes

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

The Apr-June of ‘26 MJO has been about the most left-sided of any Apr-June since records started in 1975:

2026:

 

Closest years were:

2021:

 

1991:

We can probably ignore 2021, since there was no el nino.

1991, with the robust el nino, is probably the better analog. That one bucked the trend, and was an extremely warm spring and summer in the Eastern US. The thing about 1991 was that there was a major volcano in mid-June (which screwed things up), and don't have that (yet) this year.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
 The CFS daily PDO has increased from -1.4 on May 27th (per the WCS tweet being quoted) to -0.3 on June 22nd! Folks need to keep in mind that these can fluctuate a good bit from week to week. Regardless, this 1.1 rise is notable and it did occur during a significant strengthening of El Niño:

When the warm pool extends from Japan to California it allows the PDO to move closer to neutral.

The key to watch going forward will it be able to get positive and hold it. Recent years the daily PDO values have rebounded back closer to neutral but couldn’t get into sustained positive territory.

When the PMM was this strong going into the summer of 2015, the PDO was at +1.65.

July 2015 +1.65 PDO vs May 2026 -PDO at -1.60

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

When the warm pool extends from Japan to California it allows the PDO to move closer to neutral.

The key to watch going forward will it be able to get positive and hold it. Recent years the daily PDO values have rebounded back closer to neutral but couldn’t get into sustained positive territory.

When the PMM was this strong going into the summer of 2015, the PDO was at +1.65.

July 2015 +1.65 PDO vs May 2026 -PDO at -1.60

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

 

 

 

Thanks, Chris.

Related to the PDO, I saw this quote today:

“Waters around Japan have been cooling quite a bit lately while warming north/northeast of Hawaii.”

 

[frontranger8]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

And don't forget, in that -10 month of February 2015 in the Northeast, there were places in the West that had +10 temperature departures to balance it out.

Would not say it balanced out that month.

[frontranger8]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

When the warm pool extends from Japan to California it allows the PDO to move closer to neutral.

The key to watch going forward will it be able to get positive and hold it. Recent years the daily PDO values have rebounded back closer to neutral but couldn’t get into sustained positive territory.

When the PMM was this strong going into the summer of 2015, the PDO was at +1.65.

July 2015 +1.65 PDO vs May 2026 -PDO at -1.60

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

 

 

 

I think the main issue with comparing the PDO from 2015 to 2026 is that was a second year Nino, which tend to have +PDO much more established by this point. Since it is a lagged response in part to ENSO.

I would be surprised if the PDO is not at least moderately positive by early winter.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

PDO in developing strong/super el nino years

1957 -1.31 -1.57 -0.83 -0.81 -0.02  1.53  0.59  0.34  1.84  1.72  1.54  0.46

1965 -0.95 -0.61 -0.17 -0.01 -0.66 -0.76 -0.74  0.32  0.83  0.30  0.47  0.25

1972 -2.12 -1.95 -1.53 -1.70 -2.16 -1.84 -1.48 -0.11 -0.20 -0.22 -0.05 -0.37

1982  0.11 -0.19 -0.37 -0.70 -1.21 -0.99  0.12 -0.08  0.51  0.15 -0.60  0.16

1986  1.04  1.47  1.68  1.21  0.85  0.62  1.05 -0.19 -0.03  1.00  1.68  1.71

1991 -1.80 -1.09 -1.11 -1.63 -1.65 -2.25 -1.57 -0.58  0.37  0.41  0.56 -0.21

1997  0.44  0.29  0.39  0.73  1.59  2.55  1.49  2.27  1.80  1.78  1.48  0.99

2009 -1.81 -1.78 -2.06 -2.23 -1.32 -0.73 -0.71 -0.49  0.33 -0.13 -0.94 -0.51

2015  1.51  1.52  1.33  0.90  0.32  0.82  1.41  0.98  0.97  0.84  0.17  0.29

2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.08 -2.41 -2.55 -2.54 -2.48 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris.

Related to the PDO, I saw this quote today:

“Waters around Japan have been cooling quite a bit lately while warming north/northeast of Hawaii.”

 

May 2026 was a little cooler than May 2023 around Japan. But much warmer than 2015 and 1997. This relationship is reflected in the PDO values for the month of May. Plus the area off the Baja was much warmer than 2023.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

May 2026 PDO -1.60

 

May 2023 PDO -2.46

May 2015 PDO +0.40 and +1.65 by July

May 1997 PDO +1.29 and +2.35 by June

Traditional strong +PDO pattern

 

[frontranger8]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

May 2026 was a little cooler than May 2023 around Japan. But much warmer than 2015 and 1997. This relationship is reflected in the PDO values for the month of May. Plus the area off the Baja was much warmer than 2023.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

May 2026 PDO -1.60

 

May 2023 PDO -2.46

May 2015 PDO +0.40 and +1.65 by July

May 1997 PDO +1.29 and +2.35 by June

Traditional strong +PDO pattern

 

I believe the biggest factor for PDO calculations is that pool of water south of the Aleutians and to the north/northwest of Hawaii.