Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 Good stuff as always, snowman19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter? interesting... Looks Modoki. Looks beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 65-66 had a -PNA? Yes. I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though. I just don't think it was a Modoki pattern in the Pacific. Heavy -NAO was why that Winter was cold in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 6 hours ago, bluewave said: The December forecast map shows the +IOD becoming more neutral following the fall peak with the SSTs rebounding a bit near the Maritime Continent So we’ll have to see how things verify once we get that far out in time. Also note the December forecast chart has warmer SSTs east of Japan and over the Atlantic. 4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though. Seasonal forecasts definitely have their limitations, regardless of the specification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though. I always thought you had east based, west based(Modoki) or basin wide. With region 4 at 1.4 or whatever it is today, how can this not currently be classified as basin wide? You could call it leaning east or something I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 15 minutes ago, roardog said: I always thought you had east based, west based(Modoki) or basin wide. With region 4 at 1.4 or whatever it is today, how can this not currently be classified as basin wide? You could call it leaning east or something I guess. It's relative to the average fluctuation of different regions vs each other. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 1+2 at +2.8c and there is +8c water under there. It's like 50% or more Nino 1+2 based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 16 minutes ago, roardog said: I always thought you had east based, west based(Modoki) or basin wide. With region 4 at 1.4 or whatever it is today, how can this not currently be classified as basin wide? You could call it leaning east or something I guess. 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's relative to the average fluctuation of different regions. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 1+2 at +2.8c and there is +8c water under there. THIS is strongly east-based: 11JUN1997 26.1 2.8 27.8 1.1 28.4 0.7 28.9 0.1 This: 10JUN2015 25.5 2.0 27.8 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.8 0.9 This: 07JUN2023 26.1 2.6 28.0 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.5 0.7 And THIS: 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 Are basin-wide. Eastward leaning, sure....okay. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 Are basin-wide. Eastward leaning, sure....okay. Ever had a La Nina this east based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Is it a huge deal? I don't think so, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Ever had a La Nina this east based? No idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Like I said, basin-wide is varied....could end up warmer than 1997 and I would not be surprised in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No idea. No, really strong El Nino's tend to develop this way. In comparison to other Super Nino's it doesn't look especially outstanding, but there has never been a La Nina at this time of the year that had Nino 1+2 70% greater than all other regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 34 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: No, really strong El Nino's tend to develop this way. In comparison to other Super Nino's it doesn't look especially outstanding, but there has never been a La Nina at this time of the year that had Nino 1+2 70% greater than all other regions. Makes sense since they aren't as powerful in general. It's semantics, anyway....I'm not trying to argue that winter is going to be cold because we have warmth in the western regions, but I do think that the risk of a winter closer to normal tempwise is heightened.....especially considering that the western warm pool may have edged eastward a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Makes sense since they aren't as powerful in general. It's semantics, anyway....I'm not trying to argue that winter is going to be cold because we have warmth in the western regions, but I do think that the risk of a winter closer to normal tempwise is heightened.....especially considering that the western warm pool may edged eastward a bit. East based Super Nino's in the analogs might have too much of a +NAO bias anyway. 1895-1948 La Nina's were... really warm Winters. Flip that around and it's colder for El Nino's, Nino's might have been more east-based though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 02-03, 04-05, 09-10.. Nino 1+2 was close to neutral.. those were true west-based Nino years, and what a Winter they were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 02-03, 04-05, 09-10.. Nino 1+2 was close to neutral.. those were true west-based Nino years, and what a Winter they were Yea, I have those, 1958-1959, 1968-1969 and 1977-1978 comprising my Modoki composite....but those are def. the most extreme members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 The only year that has cold ENSO-->warm ENSO, very +NAO, very -WPO in March is 1986. For winter, that's - +NAO & AO early (Oct-Dec), -NAO late (Jan-Mar) -WPO early (Oct-Dec), +WPO late (Jan-Mar) +PNA (Dec-Mar) -EPO (Jan-Feb), +EPO (Mar) Signal Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar NAO + + + - - - AO + + + - - - PNA + - + + + + EPO + + ? - - + WPO - - - + + + That's a good pattern for storms nationally, volatile but warm for temps for most of the USA. +NAO - For Oct, warm Plains and East. Neutral West & Deep South for Oct. Warm signal strongest over Missouri. For Nov, warm signal strongest SE US, warm signal eastern 1/3 of the USA. Weak cold signal TX to WA state. +AO is similar in Oct-Nov, but a broader warm signal for the Midwest in October. -NAO/AO in Jan-Mar - cold everywhere. Strongest in March. +PNA - very warm signal for the Western US in October. Weak cold signal in the Eastern US. Netural Plains. -PNA Nov - cold signal Western and Northern US, warm signal Southern & Eastern US. Strong signal Northwest and Deep South. +PNA Dec-Mar. Broadly cold for the South and East in Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar. But strongest signal and widest significant spatial correlation in Nov-Jan. +EPO is a cold signal for the entire US east of the West Coast in Oct-Nov. Strongly so east of the Rockies. -EPO is a strong warm signal for the US outside the Southwest in Jan-Mar, especially in Jan/Mar. Weak cold signal in the SW Jan/Mar, strong in Feb. -WPO Oct is very cold in the middle 2/3 of the US, neutral coasts (think Oct 2020). Cold east for Nov - weak. Strong cold signal NE US in Dec. +WPO is a weak cold SW/warm NE signal in Jan, and then much stronger for both components in Feb/Mar. These are the years with the 1986-87 projection for the main signals. Oct: +NAO, +PNA, +EPO - WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1986, 1987, 2015, 2018 Nov: +NAO, -PNA, +EPO, -WPO, El Nino: 1982, 1986, 2019 Dec: +NAO, +PNA, ?EPO, -WPO, El Nino: 1986, 2014 Jan: -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1986, 1991, 2002, 2009, 2015 Feb: -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1951, 1963, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2009 Mar: -NAO, +PNA, +EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1986, 1987, 2023 Honestly looks...plausible? Something like this overall - it'd be a 0-1F colder nationally for Jan-Mar v. Dec-Feb but very similar. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Nice post, raindance. I'm not sold on a non-winter, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 I'm not really using 1986-1987 per se, but like that overall progression......mild December prior to mid season shift colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 5 hours ago, raindancewx said: The only year that has cold ENSO-->warm ENSO, very +NAO, very -WPO in March is 1986. For winter, that's - +NAO & AO early (Oct-Dec), -NAO late (Jan-Mar) -WPO early (Oct-Dec), +WPO late (Jan-Mar) +PNA (Dec-Mar) -EPO (Jan-Feb), +EPO (Mar) Signal Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar NAO + + + - - - AO + + + - - - PNA + - + + + + EPO + + ? - - + WPO - - - + + + That's a good pattern for storms nationally, volatile but warm for temps for most of the USA. +NAO - For Oct, warm Plains and East. Neutral West & Deep South for Oct. Warm signal strongest over Missouri. For Nov, warm signal strongest SE US, warm signal eastern 1/3 of the USA. Weak cold signal TX to WA state. +AO is similar in Oct-Nov, but a broader warm signal for the Midwest in October. -NAO/AO in Jan-Mar - cold everywhere. Strongest in March. +PNA - very warm signal for the Western US in October. Weak cold signal in the Eastern US. Netural Plains. -PNA Nov - cold signal Western and Northern US, warm signal Southern & Eastern US. Strong signal Northwest and Deep South. +PNA Dec-Mar. Broadly cold for the South and East in Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar. But strongest signal and widest significant spatial correlation in Nov-Jan. +EPO is a cold signal for the entire US east of the West Coast in Oct-Nov. Strongly so east of the Rockies. -EPO is a strong warm signal for the US outside the Southwest in Jan-Mar, especially in Jan/Mar. Weak cold signal in the SW Jan/Mar, strong in Feb. -WPO Oct is very cold in the middle 2/3 of the US, neutral coasts (think Oct 2020). Cold east for Nov - weak. Strong cold signal NE US in Dec. +WPO is a weak cold SW/warm NE signal in Jan, and then much stronger for both components in Feb/Mar. These are the years with the 1986-87 projection for the main signals. Oct: +NAO, +PNA, +EPO - WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1986, 1987, 2015, 2018 Nov: +NAO, -PNA, +EPO, -WPO, El Nino: 1982, 1986, 2019 Dec: +NAO, +PNA, ?EPO, -WPO, El Nino: 1986, 2014 Jan: -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1986, 1991, 2002, 2009, 2015 Feb: -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1951, 1963, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2009 Mar: -NAO, +PNA, +EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1986, 1987, 2023 Honestly looks...plausible? Something like this overall - it'd be a 0-1F colder nationally for Jan-Mar v. Dec-Feb but very similar. Great post! Averaging out Dec-Feb, it doesn't really look too much different from the NMME in the east. I don't care about its forecast for the rest of the world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 19 hours ago, GaWx said: Keep in mind that these tend to run too high when forecasting extremes out several weeks: Note it’s now <0.5. Compare that to this 6/3 forecast, which had it at +2 for today! Big shift to a negative tendency last few days as we see a more Niña-like pattern again for a time near the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 I predict that R 3.4 and R 1+2 will be up to +1.1/+2.4 in tomorrow’s weekly update. These would be up from the +0.9/+2.1 of last Monday’s report. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 36 minutes ago, GaWx said: I predict that R 3.4 and R 1+2 will be up to +1.1/+2.4 in tomorrow’s weekly update. These would be up from the +0.9/+2.1 of last Monday’s report. CRW is already at +1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Ever had a La Nina this east based? About 2 years ago, I did the composites on the moderate and strong la ninas. 1975-76 was the closest to being east based of the strong la ninas. 1949-50 is probably the best example of an east based la nina, with 1970-71 and 1984-85 possibly being east based. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 The Jamstec. My new favorite seasonal model...so far. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 48 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: About 2 years ago, I did the composites on the moderate and strong la ninas. 1975-76 was the closest to being east based of the strong la ninas. 1949-50 is probably the best example of an east based la nina, with 1970-71 and 1984-85 possibly being east based. I consider 2021-2022 to be an east-based La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 I know @bluewave brings this up a lot, but I will forever be fascinated by the clean phase 8 pass through in January 2022. With all of the competing Nina forcing going on, I don’t know how we pulled that off especially during an actual Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Big shift to a negative tendency last few days as we see a more Niña-like pattern again for a time near the end of the month. Not that unusual in super Nino events. I wouldn’t expect 24/7 +AAM and it’ll probably bounce back quickly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 Just letting you guys know, this was a >+1 PDO. The new thought in the weather community is that global warming is skewing PDO negative, etc, the warm pool near Japan isn't going away. While SSTAs are warmer, the PDO is a 50/50 index, and the big warmth along the west coast of North America was responsible for strong +PDO in 15-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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