2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

36 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

PNA probably stays ++ all winter. Remember one of the measuring points lies in the SE US, so the SE trough combined with the GOA low centered just offshore of western Canada will keep it positive. 

Looking at only Ninos of +1.4+ (per RONI), there have been 10 others since 1950 but only one (1997) had a +PNA dominant first half of Nov like GEFS says 2026 is going to have. GEFS is suggesting ~+1.0 (after adjusting downward for bias) for 11/1-15/2026. How does this compare to the other 10 actual 11/1-15?

2023: -0.1

2015: -0.2

2009: -0.3

1997: +1.2

1991: +0.1

1986: -0.9

1982: -0.3

1972: +0.1

1965: -0.5

1957:  0.0

 I wonder if this strong early Nov +PNA in 2026 is largely due to how E based it is being that 1997 was so E based early.
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Even if this turns into a true SSWE (major or minor) and a wind reversal, it has to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere and fully couple with the troposphere, otherwise it’s completely useless
Eric Webb had this to say:

 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Even if this turns into a true SSWE (major or minor) and a wind reversal, it has to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere and fully couple with the troposphere, otherwise it’s completely useless.

Eric Webb had this to say:
 

Of course it's going to be masked by the strongest El Nino in history in the seasonal mean, the question is whether it portends a favorable stretch of two during the winter, which often makes the difference between a bottom-dwelling winter in terms of snowfall and a middling season.

[BlizzardWx]

Good agreement on that positive PNA to start out November among all modeling systems. (Yeah I know I need to clean this graphic up a bit but I guess it'll get the job done for today)

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

Good agreement on that positive PNA to start out November among all modeling systems. (Yeah I know I need to clean this graphic up a bit but I guess it'll get the job done for today)

This is just like the strongly E based 1997 was in the first half of Nov, but is unlike the 9 other strong+ Ninos since 1959, which had either neutral or -PNA then.

[stadiumwave]

https://x.com/MeteoMark/status/2115836527712338188?a=JR30_wRbbVdstqpwhLw&s=19

 

I don't think Mark understands that a SSW now does not mean the SPV will not recover.

[snowman19]

https://x.com/MeteoMark/status/2115836527712338188?a=JR30_wRbbVdstqpwhLw&s=19
 
I don't think Mark understands that a SSW now does not mean the SPV will not recover.

No surprise coming from the guy who failed out of meteorology school. If stupid could fly, he’d be a jet

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

https://x.com/MeteoMark/status/2115836527712338188?a=JR30_wRbbVdstqpwhLw&s=19

 

I don't think Mark understands much about weather.

The incompetence watch has been upgraded to a warning.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No surprise coming from the guy who failed out of meteorology school. If stupid could fly, he’d be a jet

[GaWx]

 Today’s 10 day averaged CFS RONI run for Nov has dropped a little to between +2.75 and +2.70. It also suggests that near future 10 day means for Nov will probably drop a little lower since all 8 of the blue lines, the most recent runs, are lower than today’s mean of the 40 lines whereas the red lines are more balanced. It also suggests a similar small drop for Nino 4 and Nino 3 for the same reason. However, unlike the other 3 regions, Nino 1+2’s blue lines are balanced suggesting little near future change upcoming for its Nov forecast mean thus implying probably a slightly even more E based Nino:

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You'd assume based on where the PDO is now and its tendency the last 2 winters from what it WAS on 11/1 to where it translated the remainder of the winter that probably is true.  I don't see the PDO going from -0.7 to -1.6 when the last 2 winters in what was more a colder neutral setup it went towards neutral both times.  

What I mean is, this is in fact a +PNA. It may not look like one that we’re familiar with, but based on the coordinates it’s measured at, the SE trough, and positive height differential between Western Canada and the GOA all make it positive.  

 

[snowman19]

Region 1+2 is about to explode with warmth. A DWKW has reached the South American coast and has begun to surface, anomalies of +10C are being reported and sea level heights are at levels never seen before in history. This warmth is certain to spread into regions 3 and 3.4 in the next few weeks. Also, this WWB continues to look more and more impressive on the models, which is also going to help enhance the warming in those regions over the next several weeks…..





The subsurface…..WOW

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

65-72 was -AMO, I believe.....we were in a dry pattern in the NE bc we had MC forcing for the better part of a decade. ..I would not go dry this year.

The recent dry pattern was kickstarted by the 2023-2024 el nino. October 2024 had zero rainfall here so maybe we are now entering another dry pattern, Ray. This October actually reminds me of it.  Very not el nino like. I know you mentioned the lack of MC forcing but for now I'm going with 1965-66,  1972-73,  2001-02 and 2023-2024 as analogs. Got to put a non nino analog in there too and I refuse to use 1997-1998 as an analog it's too easy and seems intellectually lazy to me.

 

 

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2023-2024 had strong MC forcing though, which as you know is significant source of destructive interference for high latitude blocking. I don't deny that this is probably CC enhanced, and perhaps it won't end up meaning much...I'm open to that, but I don't think that we can summarily dismiss it as an artifact of CC.

How can el ninos be grouped by MC forcing Ray? I haven't seen this mentioned before this year.

 

20 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1994-95 is a sneaky good analog. Maybe even better than 1997-98. I know 94-95 wasn't as strong of an el nino, but this is the closest match we have with the PDO (-), QBO (+), NAO, AO, and solar.

Last winter 1993-94 was thrown around as an analog. And if next winter is a la nina some will throw around 1995-96 as an analog.

 

 

17 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Let's hope it's nothing like that one. Severe wx lover's would like it. 

You'd change your mind if it was followed in sequence with the winter of 1995-96. 

 

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

rainy coastals instead of cutters 

Dry and sunny sounds much better. Give me 1965-66 1972-73 2001-02 or 2023-2024 instead.

 

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Man, this upcoming WWB for early November looks real impressive on the models. This thing is the energizer bunny in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2….
 

Is the Atacama Desert, the driest place on the planet, finally going to get some rain? I've wanted to visit it when all those red desert flowers bloom!

 

[forkyfork]

that tweet about sea levels in peru is nuts

[Typhoon Tip]

A new phenomenon may be beginning known as 'El namis'  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

What I mean is, this is in fact a +PNA. It may not look like one that we’re familiar with, but based on the coordinates it’s measured at, the SE trough, and positive height differential between Western Canada and the GOA all make it positive.  

 

It's a good approach ... the EOF derivatives are purely numeric ... they are not qualitative in that sense.  In this case, the significance of the negative anomaly with that trough near NE of HA is probably lifting the PNA index farther up than the height field down wind is driving it down..

[LakePaste25]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a good approach ... the EOF derivatives are purely numeric ... they are not qualitative in that sense.  In this case, the significance of the negative anomaly with that trough near NE of HA is probably lifting the PNA index farther up than the height field down wind is driving it down..

oh yeah I agree with that. Deep cyclonic flow over there vs. solar irradiance in Florida. for the FL portion to contribute more to you need a deep arctic outbreak down there imo. 

[stadiumwave]

Even weaker

[EasternLI]

 

12Z EPS still at 100% with reversals. GEFS up to 85% Interesting that it's the euro that has latched on to this first and also remains the strongest of the runs. So I'm going to post a loop of todays 12Z EURO op. Because A - It's actually a reasonable representation of the 12Z EPS mean but with higher detail. And B - It's just really cool to see this sort of progression on any model run. You have the vortex getting unwound during this time. As the run goes on, watch the whole hemisphere 500mb pattern begin getting unwound too. With the lower heights increasingly overspreading the mid latitudes and higher heights moving north.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

what a bummer.  Captain Picard died

[donsutherland1]

Currently, the extended range shows the development of an EPO+/WPO+/AO-/NAO-/PNA+ pattern. The ECMWF-AIFS is shows temperature anomalies consistent with such a pattern at 240 hours. Its solution is especially close to a cluster of past teleconnection cases.

When rolled forward 5 days, the cluster matches up quite well with the 360-hour ECMWF-AIFS forecast. I narrowed the temperature range so the anaomalies are easier to see.

So far, there's nothing truly eventful. However, five days out, one see a lot more cool air in the CONUS. Canada remains mild. That would be at odds with the powerful El Niño in the run-up to December. However, it could be a hint of how the potential early-season stratospheric warming event impacts North America.

What that suggests is that November 20 +/- a few days might be a reasonable timeframe to begin to see effects from the stratospheric warming event, should it occur. 

For now, that's speculative. The El Niño will likely remain the dominant factor shaping North American patterns, so even a cooldown might not necessarily mean unseasonable cold. The ECMWF weekly forecast for November 23-30 shows this quite well. The true area of cool anomalies is smaller, while a large part of the southern half of the CONUS has near normal readings.

Finally, for those who track teleconnections, NOAA is no longer updating daily EPO and WPO values.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The recent dry pattern was kickstarted by the 2023-2024 el nino. October 2024 had zero rainfall here so maybe we are now entering another dry pattern, Ray. This October actually reminds me of it.  Very not el nino like. I know you mentioned the lack of MC forcing but for now I'm going with 1965-66,  1972-73,  2001-02 and 2023-2024 as analogs. Got to put a non nino analog in there too and I refuse to use 1997-1998 as an analog it's too easy and seems intellectually lazy to me.

Including 1997 as an analog isn't intellectually lazy in and of itself....it's in my composite with ample data to support it. 

You can identify MC forcing by looking at where the velocity potential, highest precipitation rate and OLR are focused....if it's in the MC, then it's MC forcing. This year it is not....2023 it was, 2015 it was somewhat....I don't see this year being dry given the intensity of El Niño and absence of MC forcing. 

[MJO812]

DT

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The recent dry pattern was kickstarted by the 2023-2024 el nino. October 2024 had zero rainfall here so maybe we are now entering another dry pattern, Ray. This October actually reminds me of it.  Very not el nino like. I know you mentioned the lack of MC forcing but for now I'm going with 1965-66,  1972-73,  2001-02 and 2023-2024 as analogs. Got to put a non nino analog in there too and I refuse to use 1997-1998 as an analog it's too easy and seems intellectually lazy to me.

The ridge across the CONUS In October 2026 has been much stronger than 1997. So we didn’t get the Southeast trough this month that 1997 had.

It’s why this was one of the warmest Octobers on record across the CONUS vs the much cooler 1997.

The North Pacific low was also focused further south near Southern California snd the Baja.

Also note the flip of the North Pacific pattern associated with the record warm pool from Japan to North of Hawaii. So this lead to the reversal of the WPO to positive this month rather than more negative in 1997.

The strongest ridge axis in the Upper Midwest is making an earlier appearance. We usually have to wait until the winter for this El Niño ridge to emerge. 

 

 

[EasternLI]

Regardless of any consequences, it appears increasingly likely that this is going to occur. GEFS up to 94% now.  EPS still 100% plus seeing the operational EURO continue a trend to prolong it is interesting also. 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Regardless of any consequences, it appears increasingly likely that this is going to occur. GEFS up to 94% now.  EPS still 100% plus seeing the operational EURO continue a trend to prolong it is interesting also. 

The surface warming across the Northern Hemisphere going into November with this historic El Niño is more impressive than what is happening in the stratosphere.