2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Told ya'!  Lol

I’m really surprised that a legit meteorologist would make such bold claims. 09/10 is about the worst analog possible. That was the winter of all time for the mid Atlantic and has no other comparison in the historical record.


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[A-L-E-K]

drag 'em

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

drag 'em

Everyone who puts themselves out there is going to miss...like he missed last year...some our transparent and honest with ourselves, others not so much.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m really surprised that a legit meteorologist would make such bold claims. 09/10 is about the worst analog possible. That was the winter of all time for the mid Atlantic and has no other comparison in the historical record.


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Maybe its because the Mid Atlantic will see most of the storms. Jet stream will be aligned for them. 

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone who puts themselves out there is going to miss...like he missed last year...some our transparent and honest with ourselves, others not so much.

we all make mistakes

On 9/8/2025 at 12:09 PM, forkyfork said:

second year nina with a raging negative pdo. i hope you have a good supply of zoloft for this winter

 

[MJO812]

[Cobalt]

On 8/23/2025 at 6:23 PM, forkyfork said:

above normal temps and below normal snow. that's my official forecast for every winter for the rest of our lives

 

[Cobalt]

On 11/6/2025 at 7:00 PM, forkyfork said:

this is the climate change nina that will be front loaded 

 

[Cobalt]

On 10/29/2025 at 6:44 PM, forkyfork said:

all your poor kids will never see a winter like we had growing up. sad

 

[Cobalt]

On 9/8/2025 at 11:12 AM, forkyfork said:

i can't wait to lowpost in january when we barely get to freezing

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I still think one or possibly two events could workout later in February with a second ssw. Even 72/73 which was horrendous in NYC had a big one in the southern mid Atlantic. So there is definitely precedent. I think we get hung up on 97/98 too much. That winter everything just went wrong.


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[40/70 Benchmark]

@forkyforkMy mistake concerning underselling ENSO early on was being focused too much on periodicity given the magnitude of the 2023 event just 3 years ago, but upon gaining a more through appreciation for the impact that the solar cycle on ENSO, I now realize that it was 2023 that was the anomaly given that it occurred near solar max. This event is occurring right in the descending solar wheelhouse.

 

My guess is the magnitude of 2023 was largely the result of CC in that it represented a failed effort to redistribute that warm pool eastward...if at first you don't succeed....

[forkyfork]

On 4/5/2026 at 2:01 PM, roardog said:

This is really going to be fascinating to watch. If we didn’t have that very strong Nino in 23-24, I think I would be fully on board for a super Nino this year. If we would have had a strong Nina in the last two years I might even be reluctantly on board. However, since we never get such a strong Nino so close in years, it just makes me feel like something is going to fail that the models can’t see right now. In 2022 we even had the MEI get down to something like -2.2 which made a rebound strong Nino seem likely. We have nothing like that this year. 

nope

[Cobalt]

I wonder if he wished for a super nino for the big 40th, or maybe some humility

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

He already busted last winter.

[Keith Central PA]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe its because the Mid Atlantic will see most of the storms. Jet stream will be aligned for them. 

09-10 had a cold December and a snowstorm on December 19th..That's not happening this year, wish it would, sorry

[forkyfork]

On 4/7/2026 at 1:18 AM, GaWx said:

Being that the current OISST dailies suggest that RONI is likely ~-0.3 to -0.4, it is a very tall order to get the full April averaged RONI to rise all of the way to  +0.6, which is what this BoM run has. We’ll see what the very strong WWB/TC triplets are able to do. The rate of April warming would probably have to be well beyond record highs to get April RONI up to +0.6. The daily RONIs may have to approach +1.5 by April 30th!! I don’t see that being realistic at all.

poor thing

[A-L-E-K]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone who puts themselves out there is going to miss...like he missed last year...some our transparent and honest with ourselves, others not so much.

here for it obviously

these are heady times for those of us into anomalous wx of all types

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

09-10 had a cold December and a snowstorm on December 19th..That's not happening this year, wish it would, sorry

Not going to be like that winter unless very strong blocking happens. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

poor thing

You need a break

[Keith Central PA]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Not going to be like that winter unless very strong blocking happens. 

weak Nino's turn out to be the best for us like 09-10,77-78,..also weak Nina's after strong Nino's..like 66-67. Maybe next winter.

[Typhoon Tip]

Don't have much time today; just wanna get this out there before I forgotted, as my niece would say-

This is likely to physically stress the PV, below. 

It's the 100 hPa level thermal anomaly centered on D10 off 00z last night, over at the strat-trop monitoring office.   Said stressing would likely respond a -AO index as we age on thru the first week of November.  

This may be what the background soc-media chorus is singing about?  Not sure, but this did not have an origin from an SSW event. Just so's that's noted. 

 

as I was mentioning to Ray yesterday, it won't make much difference. Timing perhaps.   But whether there's an SSW --> -AO (after 20 day lag) or something going on from bottom --> up ( which this appears to be...), there is likely to be a -AO response of some kind in either case. 

SO, I'm not hugely put off by anyone that thinks it's SSW but just sayn'    

That's impressive there tho...   It's actually in place already as of the initialization last night, but is amplifying out in time.  I checked the rotated PCP analysis version and the AO is in fact crashing to about -.5 by Novie 7 or so.   The same source - btw- also depicts the PNA rising to an impressive +1.5 to almost 2 SD...  We'll see where the hemispheric conveyors set up on the AO stuff but that PNA is a mode change. 

[forkyfork]

On 4/9/2026 at 11:50 AM, snowman19 said:

These projected zonal westerly wind anomalies are completely off the charts…..
 

weenied for being right

[OSUmetstud]

Cohen man idk. That dude is always forecasting big snow lols. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

here for it obviously

these are heady times for those of us into anomalous wx of all types

I know it sounds cliche, but awful forecasts are the best learning tools....it's all about perspective. You just have to own it and approach with an open mind.

[snowman19]

Traditional ONI: almost +3.5C RONI: +2.9C The EURO has been dead balls accurate with this event. The over +4C peak it shows for December is not only believable, it’s very likely. Also, the subsurface warming continues. My final call is a December peak of +4.0C - +4.1C (traditional ONI) and +3.5C - +3.6C (RONI). I think the subsurface peaks next month at +13C

[roardog]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@forkyforkMy mistake concerning underselling ENSO early on was being focused too much on periodicity given the magnitude of the 2023 event just 3 years ago, but upon gaining a more through appreciation for the impact that the solar cycle on ENSO, I now realize that it was 2023 that was the anomaly given that it occurred near solar max. This event is occurring right in the descending solar wheelhouse.

 

My guess is the magnitude of 2023 was largely the result of CC in that it represented a failed effort to redistribute that warm pool eastward...if at first you don't succeed....

The ONI ended up borderline super probably because of all the warm water available but the other indices weren’t nearly that strong. This is where ONI skews the results IMO. If you look at that Nino more as a moderate to high end moderate then this super Nino isn’t as surprising as it seemed early this year.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The only other time in recorded history we had 5/6 La nina years, we didn't have another La Nina for 7 years following that. And the PDO switched to positive in that time. 20-26 we again had 5/6 La Nina's, so the reversal was not that surprising imo. 

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Traditional ONI: almost +3.5C RONI: +2.9C The EURO has been dead balls accurate with this event. The over +4C peak it shows for December is not only believable, it’s very likely. Also, the subsurface warming continues. My final call is a December peak of +4.0C - +4.1C (traditional ONI) and +3.5C - +3.6C (RONI). I think the subsurface peaks next month at +13C

 
 The official NOAA Nino weekly (based on OISSTv2.1) was at +2.5 for the avg of last week and is likely ~+2.6 now. Based on this as well as forecasts, I’m currently thinking their weeklies will likely peak no higher than low +3’s, which means monthlies will likely peak no higher than ~+3.0. That would mean a trimonthly RONI peak probably in the upper +2.0s.

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, roardog said:

The ONI ended up borderline super probably because of all the warm water available but the other indices weren’t nearly that strong. This is where ONI skews the results IMO. If you look at that Nino more as a moderate to high end moderate then this super Nino isn’t as surprising as it seemed early this year.

It’s as if these two super El Niño are linked together through some shared underlying mechanism since the Nino 1+2 365 day mean SSTs never dropped below neutral following 2023-2024.

The trades also didn’t fully returned to normal north of the equator in the ENSO regions over the same period.

Much different than all the previous super El Niño events of the past.