2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[MJO812]

50 minutes ago, roardog said:

We don’t even need a super Nino for winter to get cancelled around here. The last two winters were cancelled by the usual crowd and they were the best winter in years for much of this board. 

Euro shows a stretched PV in the long range. We never had a very strong El Nino like this so no one knows what wil happen.

[EasternLI]

Judah Cohen or no Judah Cohen. If el nino wishes to terminate the wave train by rebuilding these Ural Blocks like this, the PV will keep taking future shots... Looks entirely possible if not probable and it's been a mainstay feature on ensembles too. What does that ultimately mean for this year? Up for debate. Just noticing, but it's not meaningless. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Not your area

Ill make sure to bump this

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ill make sure to bump this

Alot of worthy bump material in this thread.

[MJO812]

JB

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Judah Cohen

Agree with this overall sentiment.....I have been pounding the idea that the high latitudes are going to be pretty interesting this season.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro shows a stretched PV in the long range. We never had a very strong El Nino like this so no one knows what wil happen.

Indeed as it on today’s Euro Weeklies gets down to +14 in early Nov, weakest run yet. Nothing earth shatteringly weak but interesting, regardless:

[snowman19]

[forkyfork]

none of that is going to matter when there's a vortex locked over the northeast pacific extending into the west coast

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Stratosphere warming is not uncommon in El Nino's. The last Super Nino, 23-24, had 4 separate SSW's. This one is looking barely above average lol. +QBO may be a hindrance to SSWs this cold season but since El Nino's favor warmings, they kind of cancel each other out. 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Stratosphere warming is not uncommon in El Nino's. The last Super Nino, 23-24, had 4 separate SSW's. This one is looking barely above average lol. +QBO may be a hindrance to SSWs this cold season but since El Nino's favor warmings, they kind of cancel each other out. 

Agree. Said it yesterday, El Niño aside, IMO (could be wrong of course), the other antecedent/background conditions; strong +QBO, now downwelled into the bottom of the stratosphere, descending solar off last year’s max, high geomag, +IOD are all hostile to SSWEs and a very weak SPV this winter. Going to have to wait and see what happens. The fact that we actually have people hyping to borderline hysteria on twitter right now that strat warmings never happen during El Niños is completely laughable and asinine. But when you look at which accounts are doing it, it makes perfect sense….

[bluewave]

Just remember that a weaker SPV was also a feature with the 1997-1998 event. There was also an impressive area of stratospheric warmth above the Urals to Barents region.

It’s the overpowering Pacific which is the main feature when east based El Niños get this strong.

So it’s not uncommon to see this during super El Niño events as we also had something similar with the weaker 2023-2024 super El Niño.
 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

I posted this yesterday.  Keep up. 

[GaWx]

Yesterday’s NOAA official relative weekly SSTa update for last week had this: note the 0.3 cooling in Nino 4 to -0.1 and that 3.4 stayed at +2.4:

07OCT2026         4.4        3.4        2.4        0.2
 14OCT2026         4.4        3.5        2.4       -0.1

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[snowman19]

More big warming in regions 1+2, 3, 3.4 coming up until it peaks in December. The EURO just keeps doubling down on the record-shattering SSTs it has by the beginning of December

New EURO run:

[roardog]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yesterday’s NOAA official relative weekly SSTa update for last week had this: note the 0.3 cooling in Nino 4 to -0.1 and that 3.4 stayed at +2.4:

07OCT2026         4.4        3.4        2.4        0.2
 14OCT2026         4.4        3.5        2.4       -0.1

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

What’s the record RONI? I forgot now.

[MJO812]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

Indeed as it on today’s Euro Weeklies gets down to +14 in early Nov, weakest run yet. Nothing earth shatteringly weak but interesting, regardless:

 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, roardog said:

What’s the record RONI? I forgot now.

Are you asking for the record relative trimonthly 3.4? Or the record relative weekly 3.4?

Weekly record of relative 3.4 is +2.9 (12/29/1982)

Trimonthly RONI record is +2.40 in DJF 1982-3.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Just remember that a weaker SPV was also a feature with the 1997-1998 event. There was also an impressive area of stratospheric warmth above the Urals to Barents region.

It’s the overpowering Pacific which is the main feature when east based El Niños get this strong.

So it’s not uncommon to see this during super El Niño events as we also had something similar with the weaker 2023-2024 super El Niño.
 

 

 

 

 

 

First of all, the Kuroshio current off of Japan was much cooler in 1997, and I think that combined with the cooler waters west of Hawaii is really going to strengthen that jet and promote ridging at the higher latitudes in the northern Pacific.

Secondly, 2023-2024 didn't have anything approaching the magnitude of the Scandinavian-ural block progged for later this month, and had strong MC forcing. I understand you are about as conservative as it gets with respect to long range winter forecasting, which is often a prudent course of action, but it's also important to consider both sides.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

It does show a quick recovery, but stay tuned because 10 days ago this warming wasn't even showing up on the Euro. In fact, it showed a strengthening PV.

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, roardog said:

The models have really been struggling with the North American pattern in the medium range for most of this month if you’ve been paying attention. They seem to be struggling the most with the area from Alaska down into the Pacific Northwest. 

Beyond 15 days the weeklies have been defaulting to El Niño climatology. The forecast from the start of October illustrates this point.

Hopefully, they start releasing the new bias corrected versions of the weeklies to the public so we can see how much skill they have compared to uncorrected version. 

Notice how more of a spilt low pattern between the Aleutians and California developed than the default to October El Niño climatology. 
 

New October 19 to 26 forecast 

 

Old forecast defaulted to October El Niño climatology 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

That's what happened last year, and although it recovered in the short-term thereafter, it predisposed the seasons to additional disruptions during mid winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That's another thing....the "default to El Nino climo" works both ways.....often they verify too cold because of that, but if they can also miss key developments independent of ENSO that lead to more wintry periods.

[LakePaste25]

I don’t think this winter ends up anything like 97-98 except that we see lots of coastal storms. 97-98 had a favorable December and became progressively worse. This one looks more like the classic torch December followed by more back loaded chances. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

I don’t think this winter ends up anything like 97-98 except that we see lots of coastal storms. 97-98 had a favorable December and became progressively worse. This one looks more like the classic torch December followed by more back loaded chances. 

Absolutely...QBO is somewhat different, but solar cycle is night-and-day.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First of all, the Kuroshio current off of Japan was much cooler in 1997, and I think that combined with the cooler waters west of Hawaii is really going to strengthen that jet and promote ridging at the higher latitudes in the northern Pacific.

Secondly, 2023-2024 didn't have anything approaching the magnitude of the Scandinavian-ural block progged for later this month, and had strong MC forcing. I understand you are about as conservative as it gets with respect to long range winter forecasting, which is often a prudent course of action, but it's also important to consider both sides.

These strong Scandinavian-Ural blocks have become fairly common post 2007 with the record low Arctic sea ice state. We also saw this late October into early November SPV weakening and bounce back pattern in 2021 and 2022. But as always it’s the Pacific which has the final say. 
 

 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's what happened last year, and although it recovered in the short-term thereafter, it predisposed the seasons to additional disruptions during mid winter.

Yep we have to see if it continues to dip during the season. Thats what altered alot of forecasts last winter.

The long range 0z Euro AI eps also shows the PV taking a big hit.

[bluewave]

These October Ural to Scandinavian blocks have become the new normal especially in October in the low Arctic sea ice era since 2007.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These strong Scandinavian-Ural blocks have become fairly common post 2007 with the record low Arctic sea ice state. We also saw this late October into early November SPV weakening and bounce back pattern in 2021 and 2022. But as always it’s the Pacific which has the final say. 
 

 

Right, I'm not saying it's the "golden ticket" for winter, but it certainly doesn't hurt...this also ties into what I am talking about in the northern Pacific later in the season. Not to mention that this particular block in unprecedentedly strong as modeled.

[SnoSki14]

Last November told the story of the coming winter. We'll see if this year November does the same.