2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[raindancewx]

October is verifying ~10F warmer than the Canadian forecast on Sept 30 in parts of the South so far. I'd be wary of the outlooks for Dec-Mar. They still have no skill.

CPC has the South warm in the 6-10 and 8-14 at high confidence - so pretty big bust.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just not a very good model. 

I'm surprised that you can have knowledge some index patterns, analog correlations and such and outperform seasonal models. An example is every seasonal showing -100 to -200dm +PNA in the N. Pacific this Winter. Just lazy ENSO input

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Way out there but the sub seasonals begin to show more of a cool season Nino H5 pattern in November. 

 

 

The CFS, which is not a very good model, is showing -10dm Days 36-42 in the North Pacific in November. Come on, that's how far you had to go to see some semblance of effect for the strongest El Nino on record? lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Models have an Aleutian low, and somewhat strong Western Canada ridge, +PNA pattern Hrs 324-384. Let's see if it holds, last time they showed a big AL for 3 days from this range and it didn't verify. 

Edit: 0z weakened the pattern

[snowman19]

[sebastiaan1973]

The latest Glosea6. 

[Terpeast]

Euro and AI Euro ensembles are switching to -NAO around Oct 22, fwiw, after +NAO for several weeks

[LakePaste25]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

 

The CFS, which is not a very good model, is showing -10dm Days 36-42 in the North Pacific in November. Come on, that's how far you had to go to see some semblance of effect for the strongest El Nino on record? lol

The fact that models are trying to usher in the pattern in November when we typically don’t see it until later in December the earliest is actually attributed to it being the strongest Nino on record. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I actually did an update on the IOD early this morning….it strengthened rapidly to +0.88 in the last week. It likely peaks solidly over +1 next month

Glad you're back.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I agree about 30 mb being off in amplitude but the patterns as you’ll see below are very similar. Thus, that allows me to still predict with a very high level of confidence that a solid +QBO is in store for all of this winter.

 

 Here are the tabular 30 mb QBO values since Jan ‘25 for the table that stopped updating (PSL):

2025   12.11   10.55   11.82    6.94   -4.59  -13.72  -19.99  -22.28  -24.26  -24.65  -25.35  -26.92
2026  -25.51  -23.13

 

 To compare, here are the tabular 30 mb values from the QBO link that @EasternLIposted this morning for the still updating site (ATMO) (bolded are the ones we can’t compare to old table, 3/26+)

2025   10.3      7.3      8.4      4.7     -16.5   -25.4     -27.8     -29.2    -30.5    -30.8    -30.0     -29.7.  
2026     -29.2  -31.2  -30.9   -7.0    5.7
   7.5        13.3     11.5    17.6
 

ATMO graph closeup for 2023+: jibes 100% with their textual values (actually the entire graph back to 1953 jibes):

 My observations in comparing the 30 mb tables of ATMO to PSL since 1953:

-ATMO sometimes is slightly faster than PSL in switching phases, but the average is only a half month faster in switching from positive to negative (minimal). So, phase switching times are very similar.

-ATMO almost always lower than PSL when negative: I counted 20 cycles out of 32 with ATMO negative dips <-30 vs none for PSL

-ATMO least negative dip -25.0 in 8/1954 when PSL dipped only down to -14.53, also their least negative dip since 1953

-Lowest ATMO: -35.5 in 9/1996 (when PSL was -26.02)

-Lowest PSL: -29.55 in 11/2005 (when ATMO was -33.3)

-ATMO higher peak than PSL 29 cycles out of 33: I count 17 cycles out of 33 with ATMO peaks of 16+ vs none for PSL

-Highest ATMO: +22.0 in 1/1953 (when PSL was -2.94)

-Highest PSL: 15.62 in 6/1995 (when ATMO was 15.1)

-So, ATMO cycles have higher amplitude than PSL though very similarly timed

-# of months in positive periods in ATMO lasting 10+ months: 32 of 33. Longest on record is 18 months.

———————

 The last stat tells me with near 100% confidence that all of winter ‘26-7 will be positive on ATMO. Why? The first positive month in the current phase was May of ‘26. The 10th month would be Feb of ‘27. Also, 22 of 33 positive phases lasted 12+ months with the avg length of a positive phase on ATMO being 13 months.
 
 Thus, my best guess as to the final month in the current positive phase per ATMO is within one month of May of ‘27. More than likely Feb of ‘27 will on ATMO still be >+10. The latest I can see the last positive month is Oct of ‘27 based on the 18 month record.

I wasn't doubting +QBO......just saying, I would like a streamline of homogenous data.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Following up on my last post (QBO):

 Based on my expectation of each of DJF being at +8+ QBO and also within a mature +QBO phase as opposed to near the start of it, here are the best QBO/ENSO analogs in order of quality taking into account the timing within the +QBO phase, the QBO amp, and the Nino strength:

-2015-6 strongest analog: ~identical QBO timing/similar QBO amp, super-Nino

-1982-3 super-Nino and similar QBO amp but QBO 3 month later start of + phase

-1957-8 not quite super-Nino, QBO 2 month earlier start of + phase and weaker JF amp

-1987-8 Nino only mod & 2nd year and QBO 3 month later start of + phase

-2006-7 easily weakest of these analogs because only weak Nino and QBO 2 month earlier start of + phase along with only +1 Feb QBO

Agree on 2015 being strongest....nice solar match, as well...like 2014 was last year, but I didn't explicitly use it as an analog due to ENSO, but it definitely informed my expectation for strong +TNH last season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

October is verifying ~10F warmer than the Canadian forecast on Sept 30 in parts of the South so far. I'd be wary of the outlooks for Dec-Mar. They still have no skill.

CPC has the South warm in the 6-10 and 8-14 at high confidence - so pretty big bust.

Totally agree on the CANSIPS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

 

Too bad he copyrighted it...I wanted to steal that forecast, said no one with a modicum of genuine meteorological insight.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/10/2026 at 4:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is being updated:
30MB:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

50MB:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If we have a +QBO, then November (at least the beginning of the month) is going to be very warm in the Eastern US. The last 3 +QBO years (2020, 2022, and 2024) all featured record warmth in the early part of November.

[LakePaste25]

Typical short-term temporary drop of 3.4/r3.4 due to the evaporative cooling induced by strong WWBs. Once that settles in a week or two, they should start shooting to the moon again. 

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is being updated:
30MB:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

50MB:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

Thanks! I just got on my PC and can see the updating table. For whatever reason, when I do it on my phone, it requires a download of the data. I don’t get why they can’t have it more accessible like for the PSL link.

 Anyway, this NOAA 30 mb update for Mar 26+ is following the general pattern of the ATMOS Hub values along with the sometimes slightly faster transition to positive phase in addition to sig. higher amp on both ends as I mentioned. So this essentially confirms what ATMOS Hub showed us. Therefore due to the easier access to the ATMOS Hub data  on my cell, I’m probably going to use ATMOS Hub at least as often as NOAA’s now harder to see on cellphone data. Plus I like ATMOS’ excellent graphic showing the entire atmosphere and how it progresses with the QBO cycle possibly even during mid month thus giving us a little bit of heads up that the monthly tables don’t show:

 

CPC vs ATMOS (rounded)

Mar -17 vs -31

Apr -9 vs -7

May -2 vs +6

June +4 vs +8

July +9 vs +13

Aug +11 vs +12

Sep +13 vs +18

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we have a +QBO, then November (at least the beginning of the month) is going to be very warm in the Eastern US. The last 3 +QBO years (2020, 2022, and 2024) all featured record warmth in the early part of November.

 It’s not a matter of “if” because it’s a certainty. Also that favors E US warmth in December as @snowman19has emphasized. Dec of 2015, 2006, 1987, 1982, and 1957 were all mild in the E US (other than 1957 being NN in the SE).

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It’s not a matter of “if” because it’s a certainty. Also that favors E US warmth in December as @snowman19has emphasized. Dec of 2015, 2006, 1987, 1982, and 1957 were all mild in the E US (other than 1957 being NN in the SE).

Not 1 seasonal at any time as far as I can recall had anything but a solid AN for December. The change, if it's coming, would be/start sometime in January. 

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 It’s not a matter of “if” because it’s a certainty. Also that favors E US warmth in December as @snowman19has emphasized. Dec of 2015, 2006, 1987, 1982, and 1957 were all mild in the E US (other than 1957 being NN in the SE).

You left out December 72 and 97 two strong ninos.which were above normal but noting drastic like 82 and 15

[soadforecasterx]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Typical short-term temporary drop of 3.4/r3.4 due to the evaporative cooling induced by strong WWBs. Once that settles in a week or two, they should start shooting to the moon again. 

 

I know I've been saying this but Gem has been leading the way. Come December I can only assume this El Nino will be off the charts way more than it is now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1997 actually isn't that bad of a QBO analog upon closer look...not great, but not bad...def. awful for solar, though. I think I will include it on the QBO composite given how strong of an ENSO match it is....solar is prohibitive of its' inclusion of a polar analog, though.

[forkyfork]

none of your little indicies are going to stop the displaced pac vortex from flooding the country with marine air all winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

none of your little indicies are going to stop the displaced pac vortex from flooding the country with marine air all winter

Displaced where...southward?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

none of your little indicies are going to stop the displaced pac vortex from flooding the country with marine air all winter

But, but there is always hope…. Yeah maybe above 2500’ in the greens and whites. One thing is absolutely certain, some rich people are going to loose allot of beach homes in SoCal.


.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Keith Central PA said:

You left out December 72 and 97 two strong ninos.which were above normal but noting drastic like 82 and 15

Thanks. I didn’t include 72 and 97 because they were during a different part of the QBO cycle.

72: at the end of a negative phase (far different)

97: start of a new negative phase ( not nearly as far off as 72 but still off enough to already go <0 in Jan and I’m expecting +8 through Feb. All of the other 5 analogs were +QBO through Feb.)

[michsnowfreak]

Now that it is Fall and Winter is not far out, the consensus on the board remains largely unchanged from summer.

Since not a single person in this thread is expecting a colder/snowier than avg winter in the north/northeast (despite repeated implications from a few that some are, with or course no proof backing it up), there seem to be two camps.

1.) The majority expect a winter that is milder than avg in the mean with wintry chances more plentiful the 2nd half of the season rather than the 1st. This camp is by far the largest, so theres a surprising amount of consensus heading into winter.

2.) The vocal minority expect a winter with nonstop warm weather and no snow whatsoever in the north/northeast, and often taunt the majority for their crazy assumption that it will, in fact, snow in northern latitudes as it has every year on record.

Once spring gets here, it will be interesting to see which camp wins.