2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

No, Cpc uses roni instead of oni because climate change was interfering with the enso signal they made a purposeful effort to remove cc. In fact climate change probably weakened this el nino by keeping the wpac warmer then it normally would be during this strong of a nino  that likely prevented as strong ( even if its still be very strong and in many ways record breaking) of a eastward shift in deep convection which has thus meant that while the trade winds have been extremely weak or reversed they are running only slightly ahead of 1997 despite nino 3.4 itself running much higher. Now did climate change raise nino 3.4 sst sure, but because the tropics have warmed the sst threshold for deep convection ( and thus heat distribution thru latent heating) has gone up meaning cc does not mean more heat is being disturbed in the main way enso actually impacts our weather. 

 I cannot overemphasize how important what I bolded above is. This idea is well explained at the link below, which I recently posted:

 

Significant Increase in Sea Surface Temperature at the Genesis of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems

Using satellite observations and a high-resolution global climate model, we show that this threshold has undergone a significant warming trend during the past several decades and will continue to increase in the future. This warming trend is closely related to the changes in the tropical mean SST. A constant relationship between the SST threshold and upper-tropospheric temperature is found in both the current climate and a warming climate, which corroborates the argument that tropospheric temperatures in the tropics approximately follow a moist adiabatic adjustment.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101950