2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

No, Cpc uses roni instead of oni because climate change was interfering with the enso signal they made a purposeful effort to remove cc. In fact climate change probably weakened this el nino by keeping the wpac warmer then it normally would be during this strong of a nino  that likely prevented as strong ( even if its still be very strong and in many ways record breaking) of a eastward shift in deep convection which has thus meant that while the trade winds have been extremely weak or reversed they are running only slightly ahead of 1997 despite nino 3.4 itself running much higher. Now did climate change raise nino 3.4 sst sure, but because the tropics have warmed the sst threshold for deep convection ( and thus heat distribution thru latent heating) has gone up meaning cc does not mean more heat is being disturbed in the main way enso actually impacts our weather. 

 I cannot overemphasize how important what I bolded above is. This idea is well explained at the link below, which I recently posted:

 

Significant Increase in Sea Surface Temperature at the Genesis of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems

Using satellite observations and a high-resolution global climate model, we show that this threshold has undergone a significant warming trend during the past several decades and will continue to increase in the future. This warming trend is closely related to the changes in the tropical mean SST. A constant relationship between the SST threshold and upper-tropospheric temperature is found in both the current climate and a warming climate, which corroborates the argument that tropospheric temperatures in the tropics approximately follow a moist adiabatic adjustment.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101950

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

No, Cpc uses roni instead of oni because climate change was interfering with the enso signal they made a purposeful effort to remove cc. In fact climate change probably weakened this el nino by keeping the wpac warmer then it normally would be during this strong of a nino  that likely prevented as strong ( even if its still be very strong and in many ways record breaking) of a eastward shift in deep convection which has thus meant that while the trade winds have been extremely weak or reversed they are running only slightly ahead of 1997 despite nino 3.4 itself running much higher. Now did climate change raise nino 3.4 sst sure, but because the tropics have warmed the sst threshold for deep convection ( and thus heat distribution thru latent heating) has gone up meaning cc does not mean more heat is being disturbed in the main way enso actually impacts our weather. 

I understand what you are saying, but I feel as though you are viewing it backwards....more heat in the western pacific absolutely triggers a stronger El Niño response from the tropical atmosphere because the earth is trying to redistribute said heat...why do yo think the strongest of El Niño events usually occur on the heels of solar max? Now, if there remains enough residual heat in the western Pacific, then it can create a competing influence that acts to mitigate the warm ENSO expression throughout the extra tropical hemisphere, as we saw in 2023...but let me ask you this...why do you think we have seen two warm ENSO events this strong just three years apart, which is unprecedented in recorded history....I know where my money is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I cannot overemphasize how important what I bolded above is. This idea is well explained at the link below, which I recently posted:

 

Significant Increase in Sea Surface Temperature at the Genesis of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems

Using satellite observations and a high-resolution global climate model, we show that this threshold has undergone a significant warming trend during the past several decades and will continue to increase in the future. This warming trend is closely related to the changes in the tropical mean SST. A constant relationship between the SST threshold and upper-tropospheric temperature is found in both the current climate and a warming climate, which corroborates the argument that tropospheric temperatures in the tropics approximately follow a moist adiabatic adjustment.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101950

The western Pacific was absolutely warming faster than the eastern Pacific over the past decade.

Good discussion....sure beats the hell out of "warm and rainy".

[Prismshine Productions]

Pretty sure Forky missed the nice season we had last year...honest question [mention=63]forkyfork[/mention], what would you need to see to forecast a decent winter? It was petty obvious to a lot of folks that the combination of high solar/very strong easterly QBO and modest-eastern biased La Nina would yield a plethora of chances last winter....
I get that the ridges were larger, troughs smaller as compared to similar patterns 50 years ago...not the point-

Yeah I mean... Here is a good example, from the time we moved to Vermont:

'23-24: 42.5", -14.0" below avg (avg. 56.5" imby)
'24-25: 60.1", +3.6" above avg
'25-26: 64.3", +7.8" above avg

Two above average seasons
Yet the net is still -2.6" across the three years.

Weather is dynamic and fluid, so even in blow torch winters (like this coming one) there will be chances and breaks in that pattern that yeild chances. Any snow is good snow in cases like this.

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[Jebman]

20 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this event is stronger and further east plus we have 30 years of warming on top of it. come on man

That's a good point, forky. I'd forgotten about the 30 years of warming on top of what is a very strong Nino event.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

 

 

Yeah I mean... Here is a good example, from the time we moved to Vermont:

'23-24: 42.5", -14.0" below avg (avg. 56.5" imby)
'24-25: 60.1", +3.6" above avg
'25-26: 64.3", +7.8" above avg

Two above average seasons
Yet the net is still -2.6" across the three years.

Weather is dynamic and fluid, so even in blow torch winters (like this coming one) there will be chances and breaks in that pattern that yeild chances. Any snow is good snow in cases like this.

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

 

 

I was originally going to Vermont in late January, but the first Nor'easter happened. I ended up going the weekend of March 7-9, and that point, the winter was just about over. I got temps in the mid-50s/lower 60s each day. I stayed in Manchester, and had to drive up to Weston on the last morning to see some frozen weather.

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand what you are saying, but I feel as though you are viewing it backwards....more heat in the western pacific absolutely triggers a stronger El Niño response from the tropical atmosphere because the earth is trying to redistribute said heat...why do yo think the strongest of El Niño events usually occur on the heels of solar max? Now, if there remains enough residual heat in the western Pacific, then it can create a competing influence that acts to mitigate the warm ENSO expression throughout the extra tropical hemisphere, as we saw in 2023...but let me ask you this...why do you think we have seen two warm ENSO events this strong just three years apart, which is unprecedented in recorded history....I know where my money is.

It feels like we have started to see non-linear shifts following these major heat releases to the atmosphere from the accumulated excess heat stored in the oceans. If you think about it we had a very similar climate from the late 1800s through about 1982.

Sure there was some warming from 1885 to 1982, but nothing all that dramatic. Since the coldest winters of that era occurred in the late 1970s.

Then the 1982-1983 super El Niño gave a slight bump to temperatures which remained about steady until 1997-1998.

Following the 1997-1998 heat release, the greatest warming occurred in the Arctic several years later from 2005 to 2012. So the state of the Arctic sea ice shifted to much younger around 2007 and continues to this day in the same range.

Then the next major heat release in 2015-2016 dramatically warmed our winters to the point that places like NYC only saw their next long term colder winter after 2014-2015 a full 11 years later in 2025-2026.

The major climatic shift following 2015-2016 was the rapid warming and ridge expansion east of Japan beginning around 2018-2019 which has lead to this persistent record -PDO run.

The heat release in 2023-2024 lead to the warmest CONUS winter to that point. 2025-2026 finished close to the warmest also but our little corner of the world finally got a cold winter after 11 years.

But the geographic footprint relative to the rest of the CONUS was very small. It didn’t take away from the fact that it was an enjoyable winter for many here. 

Nino 1+2 never fully cooled off following 2023-2024 and gave us the Nino-like December 2024 with the record +PNA for a La Niña.

Now this is the first time 2 El Niños this strong have occurred only 3 years apart. It feels like the big shift following 2023-2024 was a warming of the EPAC which had been the one region of the planet that had resisted the warming through 2022-2023. Many papers were written about the famous EPAC cold tongue.

Now this current warming there has exceeded anything that has occurred in the past.  This event into 2027 is going to be the greatest heat release to a higher baseline than all the previous events.

So we don’t fully understand the shifts that will occur following this jump to a much warmer climate as we head into the late 2020s and then early 2030s. 

This EPAC warming since 2023-2024 in the chart below has been unprecedented.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It feels like we have started to see non-linear shifts following these major heat releases to the atmosphere from the accumulated excess heat stored in the oceans. If you think about it we had a very similar climate from the late 1800s through about 1982.

Sure there was some warming from 1885 to 1982, but nothing all that dramatic. Since the coldest winters of that era occurred in the late 1970s.

Then the 1982-1983 super El Niño gave a slight bump to temperatures which remained about steady until 1997-1998.

Following the 1997-1998 heat release, the greatest warming occurred in the Arctic several years later from 2005 to 2012. So the state of the Arctic sea ice shifted to much younger around 2007 and continues to this day in the same range.

Then the next major heat release in 2015-2016 dramatically warmed our winters to the point that places like NYC only saw their next long term colder winter after 2014-2015 a full 11 years later in 2025-2026.

The major climatic shift following 2015-2016 was the rapid warming and ridge expansion east of Japan beginning around 2018-2019 which has lead to this persistent record -PDO run.

The heat release in 2023-2024 lead to the warmest CONUS winter to that point. 2025-2026 finished close to the warmest also but our little corner of the world finally got a cold winter after 11 years.

But the geographic footprint relative to the rest of the CONUS was very small. It didn’t take away from the fact that it was an enjoyable winter for many here. 

Nino 1+2 never fully cooled off following 2023-2024 and gave us the Nino-like December 2024 with the record +PNA for a La Niña.

Now this is the first time 2 El Niños this strong have occurred only 3 years apart. It feels like the big shift following 2023-2024 was a warming of the EPAC which had been the one region of the planet that had resisted the warming through 2022-2023. Many papers were written about the famous EPAC cold tongue.

Now this current warming there has exceeded anything that has occurred in the past.  This event into 2027 is going to be the greatest heat release to a higher baseline than all the previous events.

So we don’t fully understand the shifts that will occur following this jump to a much warmer climate as we head into the late 2020s and then early 2030s. 

This EPAC warming since 2023-2024 in the chart below has been unprecedented.

 

 

 

Yes, this is what I was getting at....I understand that the baseline warming elevates that critical threshold for convection, but the warming across the eastern Pacific was lagging the west Pacific, so these recent potent El Nino events are part of a concerted effort to neutralize that...especially this latter, record surge. It's a battle, so the expression of warm ENSO has been masked to an extent, which is what @ensonerd1233e343was driving at. The antecedent warm west/cool east stratification and the record warm ENSO push are two competing forces, the latter attempting to restore a prior baseline in the midst of rapid GW.

You're right...no one knows for sure how this will all work out, and I appreciate the different perspectives.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It feels like we have started to see non-linear shifts following these major heat releases to the atmosphere from the accumulated excess heat stored in the oceans. If you think about it we had a very similar climate from the late 1800s through about 1982.

Sure there was some warming from 1885 to 1982, but nothing all that dramatic. Since the coldest winters of that era occurred in the late 1970s.

Then the 1982-1983 super El Niño gave a slight bump to temperatures which remained about steady until 1997-1998.

I'd argue that the 80s slight warming resulted more following the 1986-88 double el nino, rather than the 1982-83 el nino. We still got cold, below zero temps here in PHL in January 1984 and January 1985. Besides, global temperatures didn't really reach new records until 1987/88 (following the latter el nino). After 1988, we still got some cold months (like October 1988 or December 1989), but the frequency quickly declined, and below zero temps became pretty much a thing of the past (save for January 19, 1994).

So, we can probably extend the similar climate to about 1985 or 1986.

[GaWx]

 The last 10 days of the PDO have had a decent rise overall though nothing extreme:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's a little dot, but +12c has appeared in the subsurface on TAO/Triton for the first time ever. That's +22F, 58f would be 80f. 

[GaWx]

New JMA H5 winter maps from NE forum post: this is what it appears to me that the maps are showing

DJF: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO

 

Dec: slight +PNA, ~neutral EPO, slight -AO to neutral AO, slight +NAO

 

Jan: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO

 

Does anyone disagree with my opinion on what these maps are showing for these indices?

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I disagree with a monster N. Pacific trough in the DJFM mean, in the reality of what will happen. 

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I disagree with a monster N. Pacific trough in the DJFM mean, in the reality of what will happen. 

You just can't get over Pearl Harbor.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You just can't get over Pearl Harbor.

Seasonal models have a strong default ENSO bias. Pretty sad really, these are the front leading forecasting tools. They have a mean of like -100 to -120dm for DJFM, which is climo Super Nino. I probably give that a 5% chance of happening, completely out of sync with recent patterns.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Heh...DT jumping on the "Second half Modoki" train....that is an exaggeration, but as I have ben saying, it will erode from the east, which will allow for more conducive mid seasonal flip.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

New JMA H5 winter maps from NE forum post: this is what it appears to me that the maps are showing

DJF: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO

 

Dec: slight +PNA, ~neutral EPO, slight -AO to neutral AO, slight +NAO

 

Jan: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO

 

Does anyone disagree with my opinion on what these maps are showing for these indices?

 

Not a bad look

[Ephesians2]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The last 10 days of the PDO have had a decent rise overall though nothing extreme:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Heh...DT jumping on the "Second half Modoki" train....that is an exaggeration, but as I have ben saying, it will erode from the east, which will allow for more conducive mid seasonal flip.

Subsurface right now does not support it eroding from the east

[EasternLI]

A few really good comparison graphics from the CPC oceans monitoring posted today. Such an impressive look this year compared to the others.

 

[forkyfork]

it's so funny how climate change deniers are using climate change to downplay the strength of this nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface right now does not support it eroding from the east

I'm talking 3 months from now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's so funny how climate change deniers are using climate change to downplay the strength of this nino

I was not, nor do I deny CC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think it will become more evenly distributed...I do agree that the EURO is overdoing the westward shift, as all guidance has been.

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'd argue that the 80s slight warming resulted more following the 1986-88 double el nino, rather than the 1982-83 el nino. We still got cold, below zero temps here in PHL in January 1984 and January 1985. Besides, global temperatures didn't really reach new records until 1987/88 (following the latter el nino). After 1988, we still got some cold months (like October 1988 or December 1989), but the frequency quickly declined, and below zero temps became pretty much a thing of the past (save for January 19, 1994).

So, we can probably extend the similar climate to about 1985 or 1986.

Yes we had some extremely cold winters in the 1980s I'd argue the real warmth started AFTER December 1989. Something radically changed between December 1989 and January 1990 and it had NOTHING to do with ENSO! as matter of fact there were heat records set in the historic 1991 and 1993 year that still haven't been matched. Even our heatwaves have been shorter since then. Why does everyone blame everything on ENSO? Think and look deeper. 

 

On 10/9/2026 at 7:01 AM, bluewave said:

It feels like we have started to see non-linear shifts following these major heat releases to the atmosphere from the accumulated excess heat stored in the oceans. If you think about it we had a very similar climate from the late 1800s through about 1982.

Sure there was some warming from 1885 to 1982, but nothing all that dramatic. Since the coldest winters of that era occurred in the late 1970s.

Then the 1982-1983 super El Niño gave a slight bump to temperatures which remained about steady until 1997-1998.

Following the 1997-1998 heat release, the greatest warming occurred in the Arctic several years later from 2005 to 2012. So the state of the Arctic sea ice shifted to much younger around 2007 and continues to this day in the same range.

Then the next major heat release in 2015-2016 dramatically warmed our winters to the point that places like NYC only saw their next long term colder winter after 2014-2015 a full 11 years later in 2025-2026.

The major climatic shift following 2015-2016 was the rapid warming and ridge expansion east of Japan beginning around 2018-2019 which has lead to this persistent record -PDO run.

The heat release in 2023-2024 lead to the warmest CONUS winter to that point. 2025-2026 finished close to the warmest also but our little corner of the world finally got a cold winter after 11 years.

But the geographic footprint relative to the rest of the CONUS was very small. It didn’t take away from the fact that it was an enjoyable winter for many here. 

Nino 1+2 never fully cooled off following 2023-2024 and gave us the Nino-like December 2024 with the record +PNA for a La Niña.

Now this is the first time 2 El Niños this strong have occurred only 3 years apart. It feels like the big shift following 2023-2024 was a warming of the EPAC which had been the one region of the planet that had resisted the warming through 2022-2023. Many papers were written about the famous EPAC cold tongue.

Now this current warming there has exceeded anything that has occurred in the past.  This event into 2027 is going to be the greatest heat release to a higher baseline than all the previous events.

So we don’t fully understand the shifts that will occur following this jump to a much warmer climate as we head into the late 2020s and then early 2030s. 

This EPAC warming since 2023-2024 in the chart below has been unprecedented.

 

 

 

This isn't really true Chris. The late 1800s winters were radically different from the 1970s winters. Look at NYC and Newark datasets. Also the real warmth began in the 1990s, there are records from 1991 and 1993 that still haven't been matched. Especially the length of our heatwaves.

On 10/8/2026 at 7:22 AM, bluewave said:

The Euro going into late winter and spring still has ENSO values warmer than any event had during the Nov-Dec peaks in the past. 
 

 

1983 had such a hot wall to wall summer an el nino lingering into next summer won't prevent that from happening again.

On 10/8/2026 at 7:36 AM, EastonSN+ said:

Looking at this in more detail, the 1992 storm was never an ideal track for all snow in NYC/LI and SNE. This past event had a much more favorable track.

No neither was favorable but Decembet 1992 completely outclassed this one, it was much more historic.  You need an offshore benchmark track for snow.

On 10/8/2026 at 7:46 AM, EastonSN+ said:

Pretty cut and dry from a historical perspective. Strong El ninos are either warm and relatively snowless or have a short snowy period inclusive of a major event. If we get that period then NC can easily reach above average snowfall.

Basically an all or nothing HR hitter coming to the plate knowing 3 strikeouts are inevitable. However always that chance for a HR in the 4th AB.

UGH DO NOT TALK ABOUT THOSE DISGUSTING SWING AND MOSTLY MISS HITTERS THAT PLAGUE BASEBALL. WE TALK ABOUT THEM IN THE SPORTS FORUMS ABOUT HOW MEDIOCRE THEY ARE AND HOW THEY MAKE AVERAGE PITCHING SEEM GREAT AND HOW THEY ALWAYS CHOKE IN THE POST SEASON AS HAS BEEN PROVEN TIME AND AGAIN. GIVE ME DEREK JETER, TONY GWYNN, PAUL MOLITOR OVER ANY OF THEM. I WOULD LIKE A NEW RULE IN BASEBALL WHERE A HITTER GETS KICKED OUT OF THE GAME AFTER THEIR SECOND STRIKE OUT. I'M JUST GLAD THE HALL OF FAME REJECTS THEM COMPLETELY.  THE THREE BORING OUTCOME PLAYERS DONT BELONG IN THE SPORT LET ALONE THE HALL OF FAME, PUT THEM IN THE HALL OF SHAME. 

On 10/8/2026 at 8:49 AM, mitchnick said:

I agree about the HR hitter coming to bat, but I  don't think we can rule out other light or moderate chances with the advertised precip anomalies on all modeling.

Those kinds of lazy unathletic low IQ players need to be kicked out of baseball. There is a direct correlation between IQ and batting average. Tony Gwynn was a genius.

On 10/6/2026 at 3:23 PM, EastonSN+ said:

The track of the 1992 storm can be found here. Looks like the primary tracked inland to the DelMarva, stalled, then moved out which is why it rained in the beginning in SNE. Seems very different than the recent noreaster and if 92 followed the recent noreaster's track we would have been buried down to the coast at least.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-11-12-1992

 

No it was a coastal storm that stalled offshore and did a loop there was no primary, I dont believe the track shown on that map is correct. And the most recent storm would be snow changing to rain you need a track to be near Cape Cod to be all snow not the Jersey shore.

On 10/6/2026 at 9:05 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Chris, you're wrong. December 1992 did exactly what I am saying...it buried most of SNE. I was in a suburb N of Boston and had 20"....Boston had like 9", as did much of N RI. The southern third of the region would have had issues, sure. I said MUCH of SNE...NOT ALL.

You are saying "antecedent warmth"....which inherently implies a dearth of +PP to the north. If there is a high in place, it will take time to dislodge that cold a stone's throw from the shore.

Yes and NW NJ had 10 to 20 inches of snow but even aside from snowfall it was the greatest noreaster of our lifetines far greater than the March 1993 so called superstorm.

On 10/6/2026 at 9:24 AM, bluewave said:

December 1992 was a big rainstorm in Southern New England shoreline areas and NYC Metro. I guess our definitions of the geographic regions are a little different. To me anything north of the Hartford to Providence line is Central New England.

That event came into the Delmarva. So a retrograding system right into NJ would probably be mostly rain in the same regions which got rain in December 1992.

Plus during the 1997-1998 winter the ridge axis was further north along with the 540 thickness line than 92-93 or the 91-92 winter. 

The January 1992 nor’easter which got pulled in from the east was also a big rainstorm for the NYC Metro area.
 

It actually stayed a bit offshore of the delmarva and did an offshore loop, NW NJ got 10 to 20 inches including 14 inches at Sparta.

I dont remember the January 1992 noreaster at all there were so many big noreasters that decade was that 1991-92 season the one in which we had an 9 inch 36 hour surprise snowstorm that stalled near the Hamptons?

On 10/6/2026 at 9:29 AM, FPizz said:

I'm guessing this storm?  

Yes this was the greatest noreaster of our lifetimes.

 

On 10/6/2026 at 9:33 AM, Keith Central PA said:

Harrisburg in December 92 had 6 inches..strong winds off the warm Atlantic in mid December didn't help the coast. Actually it did change to snow at the end and Long Island which got an inch

14 inches in Sparta NJ that might have been all snow even at the coast had it happened in February which is exactly what our local forecasters said because the temperatures fell into the 30s on the first day of the storm and it was close to being snow even as is.  I remember that second stall near Cape Cod that gave us 1 to 2 inches of snow on the third day of the storm.

On 10/6/2026 at 9:41 AM, bluewave said:

I was on Long Island for the 1992 Nor’easter. The biggest impact was the record coastal flooding up to that time and hurricane force easterly gusts. We got 3-5” of rain followed by some light snows when the low departed. That event was further south near the Delmarva than the low which tracked right into NJ in September from the east.

Data for December 9, 1992 through December 13, 1992 Total precipitation 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	4.74
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	4.68
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	4.40
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	3.69
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	3.66
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	3.60
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	3.59
NY	PLEASANTVILLE	COOP	3.57
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	3.54
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	3.52
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	3.45
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	3.40
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	3.30
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	3.25
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	3.22
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	3.19

That was a much more historic storm than this one was what were the top wind speeds and top storm surge with that one Chris? That one would have been all snow even at the coast had it happened in February, it was in the 30s as it was with 14 inches of snow in Sparta NJ. The most recent storm with that awful track had NO chance of being all snow at the coast even in February you need a Benchmark track near Cape Cod for that to happen. 

On 10/6/2026 at 9:55 AM, bluewave said:

The comparison was to a low tracking in directly from the east over NYC like last week which would be further north than December 1992 that came into the Delmarva.

It actually stalled a bit offshore of the Delmarva and then stalled again near Cape Cod which is why it snowed on Long Island on the the third day of the storm. It would have been all snow even at the coast in February. 

On 10/6/2026 at 9:49 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Sure, which is why I understand there wouldn't be 2' in the hills of NW RI if that storm had occurred during the winter, but plows would have been out in that region as sure as Adam is recycling posts about the record El Nino in some foreign language on X as we speak.

Yes and even as is it was very close to being all snow at the coast.  14 inches in Sparta NJ.

On 10/6/2026 at 8:59 AM, bluewave said:

During the winter the antecedent warmth with a seasonally stronger STJ than the fall would prevent much snow from getting south of Central and Northern New England with a loop in from the East.

We saw tracks like this but even further south during the January 1992 Nor’easter which got pulled in from the east and also.

Plus December 1992 came in closer to the Delmarva and you had to be pretty far north to cash in on that one compared to NYC Metro.

Sparta NJ had 14 inches of snow in February it would have been all snow even at the coast. What did January 1992 do I dont remember that one at all, only the surprise 36 hour 9 inch snowstorm we had in February that year.

On 10/6/2026 at 8:49 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nope.....much of SNE would have been buried on that track....it got captured and backed into the Jersey shore before drifting up to the cape post-occlusion. Your portrayal is disingenuous and makes it sound as though it barreled over the Jersey shore and straight into CT or RI.

If it happened in February the historic December 1992 storm would have been all snow even at the coast.

On 10/6/2026 at 8:47 AM, bluewave said:

Only for Central to Northern New England since it tracked directly into the Jersey shore. 

Yes you need a Benchmark track the most recent storm would not have been snow at the coast no matter when it happened .

[40/70 Benchmark]

@LibertyBellhas the record for most quotes in one response.

[bncho]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@LibertyBellhas the record for most quotes in one response.

killed 16 birds with one stone

[rclab]

22 minutes ago, bncho said:

killed 16 birds with one stone

Caution …… forky …… incoming …… as always …..

[michsnowfreak]

On 10/9/2026 at 9:46 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'd argue that the 80s slight warming resulted more following the 1986-88 double el nino, rather than the 1982-83 el nino. We still got cold, below zero temps here in PHL in January 1984 and January 1985. Besides, global temperatures didn't really reach new records until 1987/88 (following the latter el nino). After 1988, we still got some cold months (like October 1988 or December 1989), but the frequency quickly declined, and below zero temps became pretty much a thing of the past (save for January 19, 1994).

So, we can probably extend the similar climate to about 1985 or 1986.

1990s winters here were warmer than 2000s or 2010s winters. Weather always ebbs and flows regardless of the earth's overall warming, and warming is not evenly distributed. 

I agree 1980s winters were largely cold, especially the first half of the decade. But it was coming off the brutally cold 1970s winters, just decades removed from the much, much milder winters of the 1930s-50s. Weather is not going to stop being weather, so i really disagree with too much of trying to take a previous warm enso event at face value and then just assuming we need to add x amount of additional warmth to every locations weather because its years or decades later. Its pointlessly trying to be too meticulous. 

[bncho]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Caution …… forky …… incoming …… as always …..

forky kills 16 weenies with 1 post