2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

why are you talking about this in an el nino thread

Same reason you talk about climate change in an El Nino thread.

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

CFS has another strong WWB teed up for early november, although not as strong as this one.

 

Even with these CFS WWB forecasts being too weak leading to unrealistically low Nino 1+2 values, it increases the WWBs again over the winter and continues into next summer.
 

 

 

 

[forkyfork]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same reason you talk about climate change in an El Nino thread.

and what reason is that?

[forkyfork]

climate change is a likely contributor to the strength of this nino. also the enso index you guys insist we use is adjusted for climate change

[A-L-E-K]

snow autism, many such cases

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

climate change is a likely contributor to the strength of this nino. also the enso index you guys insist we use is adjusted for climate change

ENSO is tied to everything, which is why this thread encompasses just about everything....it's generally accepted and tacitly understood. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

snow autism, many such cases

 

Yes, it's generally viewed as one of the more compelling elements of weather, which is why it's such a point of focus amongst weather circles. I understand why someone who adds nothing else other than snowfall related banter may elicit some frustration from a few, but I really don't think I fall into that category. 

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ENSO is tied to everything, which is why this thread encompasses just about everything....it's generally accepted and tacitly understood. 

you have a local subforum for your backyard snow autism

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you have a local subforum for your backyard snow autism

You have a subforum for your CC autism.

I think the autism implication here is a restricted interest, and I really don't think that fits, dude.....I think I cover a great deal when I write about weather....including CC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I understand why the snowfall tangent in a main ENSO thread can be frustrating for some, and am sorry for that, but the fact is that that a large percentage of weather circles share a common bond; snowfall is what first compelled us to crawl over to the window, and ultimately acted as the catalyst for that nascent interest in weather that has continued to flourish to the extent that it carries us through even our darkest hours today. It's the fountain of youth in that we get to relive that same, youthful and eternally hopeful jubilance that life would have otherwise long since stolen from us...it's that unique lived experience that binds us with the strongest of social fabric, and it's that unique lived experience that drives the autistic inertia that culminates in my drafting of the longest winter outlook known to man each fall , despite having two jobs and 4 children under the ago of 7.

Hope that answers your question, there, spoony-fork.

[roardog]

I just like interesting weather. For a quarter of the year or maybe even a little more, the only interesting weather around here is winter weather. When your options are a wind driven 35 or 40 degree rain or a wind driven snowstorm, I’ll obviously take the snowstorm every time. The problem around here is that a “warm” winter isn’t warm. It’s not like you’re going to be spending a bunch of outdoors enjoying the weather around here during a “warm” winter unless you like cloudy and windy days in the 30s. 

[Keith Central PA]

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

I just like interesting weather. For a quarter of the year or maybe even a little more, the only interesting weather around here is winter weather. When your options are a wind driven 35 or 40 degree rain or a wind driven snowstorm, I’ll obviously take the snowstorm every time. The problem around here is that a “warm” winter isn’t warm. It’s not like you’re going to be spending a bunch of outdoors enjoying the weather around here during a “warm” winter unless you like cloudy and windy days in the 30s. 

Totally agree. We all try to broadbrush a monthly or seasonal forecasts..Super Nino's,,NAO,PDO ect..saying it will be warm and cold. But it's the daily,actual weather that counts. Back in the 60's and 70's there was a three day forecast. You lived not knowing what was going to happen next week.Maybe that's better. Take life day by day. Hard to do in the world of social media.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, roardog said:

I just like interesting weather. For a quarter of the year or maybe even a little more, the only interesting weather around here is winter weather. When your options are a wind driven 35 or 40 degree rain or a wind driven snowstorm, I’ll obviously take the snowstorm every time. The problem around here is that a “warm” winter isn’t warm. It’s not like you’re going to be spending a bunch of outdoors enjoying the weather around here during a “warm” winter unless you like cloudy and windy days in the 30s. 

The only interesting weather on the coastal plane of Mass is winter weather....unless you want to count hurricanes, which have been absent since 1991. 

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The only interesting weather on the coastal plane of Mass is winter weather....unless you want to count hurricanes, which have been absent since 1991. 

I don't understand how anyone who owns a home wants severe, damaging weather in their backyard. Leaving the personal injuries/death traumas aside, good luck dealing with your insurance company in getting your house repaired in a timely fashion  competently by contractors willing to accept typical insurance rates. And life in a hotel for weeks on end, let alone months, is a disaster on its own. No, gimme winter weather and boredom for the other 8-9 months.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, it's generally viewed as one of the more compelling elements of weather, which is why it's such a point of focus amongst weather circles. I understand why someone who adds nothing else other than snowfall related banter may elicit some frustration from a few, but I really don't think I fall into that category. 

Climate change autism on here is worse than snow autism. Any discussion of snow/cold (not in this thread, on any thread) hits a button with those who have cc autism. Last winter was especially brutal. There are only a small handful of posters on this board who only post about one thing and one thing only, and its not the snow crowd.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Climate change autism on here is worse than snow autism. Any discussion of snow/cold (not in this thread, on any thread) hits a button with those who have cc autism. Last winter was especially brutal. There are only a small handful of posters on this board who only post about one thing and one thing only, and its not the snow crowd.

I try to keep it objective, as we all should.

[EastonSN+]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Chris, you're wrong. December 1992 did exactly what I am saying...it buried most of SNE. I was in a suburb N of Boston and had 20"....Boston had like 9", as did much of N RI. The southern third of the region would have had issues, sure. I said MUCH of SNE...NOT ALL.

You are saying "antecedent warmth"....which inherently implies a dearth of +PP to the north. If there is a high in place, it will take time to dislodge that cold a stone's throw from the shore.

The track of the 1992 storm can be found here. Looks like the primary tracked inland to the DelMarva, stalled, then moved out which is why it rained in the beginning in SNE. Seems very different than the recent noreaster and if 92 followed the recent noreaster's track we would have been buried down to the coast at least.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-11-12-1992

 

[forkyfork]

37 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Climate change autism on here is worse than snow autism. Any discussion of snow/cold (not in this thread, on any thread) hits a button with those who have cc autism. Last winter was especially brutal. There are only a small handful of posters on this board who only post about one thing and one thing only, and its not the snow crowd.

[forkyfork]

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

snow autism, many such cases

 

this really got to them

[ensonerd1233e343]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

climate change is a likely contributor to the strength of this nino. also the enso index you guys insist we use is adjusted for climate change

not a likely contributer

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Wow did the -PDO come back

Check out the differences in the Pacific between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

[EasternLI]

MEI updated and has 2.4 for AS.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

We're gonna see some wild weather this winter and then next summer will be a disaster. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

MEI updated and has 2.4 for AS.

That’s interesting that it dropped slightly. But it’s still a record high back to 1979 for AS. For all bimonthlies, the record high is 2.9 (AM of 1983).

[EasternLI]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wow did the -PDO come back

Check out the differences in the Pacific between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

 

Starting to wonder how much of that can be attributed to the AO which has been mainly positive for several months. Think that stubborn ridge that's been east of Japan has some relation to that at least.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Yeah, nice post, I've been pointing out how the +AO has been following warm season 2024 and 2025, after the Solar Max. Your graph shows those 3 strong + periods. 

Summer 2018 too, that was followed by the most CONUS -PNA El Nino on record 18-19. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're gonna see some wild weather this winter and then next summer will be a disaster. 

Warm season after +ENSO.. This is all El Nino minus all La Nina analogs since 1948 +8 months.. global warming has little to do with this. What a strong correlation (Summer 2027)!