40/70 Benchmark Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: What was your Winter forecast for the Pacific in 2023? Index Value Predicted '23-'24 DM Value Range Actual '23-'24 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -.30 to -.60 -1.51 Biased .91 positive Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.35 to -.65 +.55 Biased .90 negative ENSO OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide) NDJ 2.0 EMI: .30 .01 degree too cool and one month too early. Biased .30 West (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.30 to +.60 -.04 Biased .34 positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.30 to -.60 -.10 Biased .20 negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.10 to -.20 +.76 Biased .66 negative 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Index Value Predicted '23-'24 DM Value Range Actual '23-'24 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -.30 to -.60 -1.51 Biased .91 positive Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.35 to -.65 +.55 Biased .90 negative ENSO OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide) NDJ 2.0 EMI: .30 .01 degree too cool and one month too early. Biased .30 West (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.30 to +.60 -.04 Biased .34 positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.30 to -.60 -.10 Biased .20 negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.10 to -.20 +.76 Biased .66 negative Wow, you forecasted a -PNA in 23-24. Congrats on that, I think that's a really good forecast. PNA region ended up having an anomaly of +45dm for DJFM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Wow, you forecasted a -PNA in 23-24. Congrats on that, I think that's a really good forecast. PNA region ended up having an anomaly of +45dm for DJFM Yea, the outlook overall was garbage, though...I misinterpreted the El Nino adjoining the west-warm pool as more of a Modoki influence, rather than MC, which is what it was. I learned so much from that bust, and from Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago At least the start of September will show some similarity to 2023 and 2015. But the forecast is for a stronger Southeast ridge this time. Matches the summer theme of stronger mid-latitude 500 mb ridging than past developing super El Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, the latest CFS is how you watch 'ole man winter swallow a pistol.....brutal combination of east-based El Nino overlaid onto residual MC regime....look familiar? It should- 19 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's a SE ridge pattern in the cold season. Will be interesting to see if we get a SE Canada ridge like is typical of Nino's or if the US pattern gets washed out to something different this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago On 8/25/2026 at 11:09 PM, jaxjagman said: I agree with you,it dont seem like when the monthly updates you should see much change with a typhoon going into East China the next couple days.Look at how warm those SST's are east Japan into the Pac.Its rare in a strong NINO to even witness this Yeah, rapid warming of the SSTs near Japan as the main ridge axis migrated west from the July position north of Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Good read https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-first-forecast-super-el-nino-polar-vortex-snow-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAT9JoxjbGNrBP0l63Bkb2YFZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQMMzUwNjg1NTMxNzI4AAEezbLprzeZm_l4j6uPr56iE-akeZ4XeTHsxqlAWZXPbVtqB7lAYJMCHZffT68_aem_PgtonIDoor2992y5PIongQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Record warm AUGUST across CONUS, who forecasted that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I'm not sure what, if any implications, this will have going forward or exactly what the root cause is but it's pretty clear August 2026 behaved much differently than other Super Nino cases (1982, 1997, 2015) and was essentially a hotter version of 2023. I don't think there was anyone in the industry who predicted anything close to a recor Right away, you could probably attribute it, at least in part, to much higher national drought coverage than we've seen in other Nino cases since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: I'm not sure what, if any implications, this will have going forward or exactly what the root cause is but it's pretty clear August 2026 behaved much differently than other Super Nino cases (1982, 1997, 2015) and was essentially a hotter version of 2023. I don't think there was anyone in the industry who predicted anything close to a recor Right away, you could probably attribute it, at least in part, to much higher national drought coverage than we've seen in other Nino cases since 2000. The plains drought forcing the pattern is Eric’s theory as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago check out the climate disaster that just happened in nepal. how many more is this nino going to unleash? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: The plains drought forcing the pattern is Eric’s theory as well. Makes sense. Here was today's date in 2015 for reference...much worse on the West Coast but majority of the CONUS was drought free. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Makes sense. Here was today's date in 2015 for reference...much worse on the West Coast but majority of the CONUS was drought free. Acceleration of AGW is the answer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 28 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: I'm not sure what, if any implications, this will have going forward or exactly what the root cause is but it's pretty clear August 2026 behaved much differently than other Super Nino cases (1982, 1997, 2015) and was essentially a hotter version of 2023. I don't think there was anyone in the industry who predicted anything close to a recor Right away, you could probably attribute it, at least in part, to much higher national drought coverage than we've seen in other Nino cases since 2000. 2015 not far off, either.....likely also at least somewhat related to the residual MC influence we have discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago 25 minutes ago, forkyfork said: check out the climate disaster that just happened in nepal. how many more is this nino going to unleash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted 20 minutes ago Share Posted 20 minutes ago 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2015 not far off, either.....likely also at least somewhat related to the residual MC influence we have discussed. Would be nice to get one winter without an aleutian ridge, even if we’re dealing with an extended pac jet more often than not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 19 minutes ago Share Posted 19 minutes ago Just now, LakePaste25 said: Would be nice to get one winter without an aleutian ridge, even if we’re dealing with an extended pac jet more often than not. Will be interesting to see how close we get this year...my guess is 2015 like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted 17 minutes ago Share Posted 17 minutes ago 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Will be interesting to see how close we get this year...my guess is 2015 like. Locally I’d much rather have December 1997 over December 2015. But I have my expectations very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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