2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What was your Winter forecast for the Pacific in 2023? 

Index Value	Predicted '23-'24 DM   Value Range	Actual  '23-'24 DM Value	Forecast Error
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)	-.30 to -.60	-1.51	Biased .91 positive
Perennial North American Pattern (PNA)	-.35 to -.65	+.55	Biased .90 negative
ENSO	OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide)	NDJ 2.0  EMI: .30	.01 degree too cool and one month too early.   Biased .30 West
(J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO)	+.30 to +.60	-.04	Biased .34 positive
Arctic Oscillation (AO)	-.30 to -.60	-.10	Biased .20 negative
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)	+.10 to -.20	+.76	Biased .66 negative

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Index Value	Predicted '23-'24 DM   Value Range	Actual  '23-'24 DM Value	Forecast Error
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)	-.30 to -.60	-1.51	Biased .91 positive
Perennial North American Pattern (PNA)	-.35 to -.65	+.55	Biased .90 negative
ENSO	OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide)	NDJ 2.0  EMI: .30	.01 degree too cool and one month too early.   Biased .30 West
(J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO)	+.30 to +.60	-.04	Biased .34 positive
Arctic Oscillation (AO)	-.30 to -.60	-.10	Biased .20 negative
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)	+.10 to -.20	+.76	Biased .66 negative

Wow, you forecasted a -PNA in 23-24. Congrats on that, I think that's a really good forecast. PNA region ended up having an anomaly of +45dm for DJFM

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wow, you forecasted a -PNA in 23-24. Congrats on that, I think that's a really good forecast. PNA region ended up having an anomaly of +45dm for DJFM

Yea, the outlook overall was garbage, though...I misinterpreted the El Nino adjoining the west-warm pool as more of a Modoki influence, rather than MC, which is what it was. I learned so much from that bust, and from Chris.

[bluewave]

At least the start of September will show some similarity to 2023 and 2015. But the forecast is for a stronger Southeast ridge this time. Matches the summer theme of stronger mid-latitude 500 mb ridging than past developing super El Ninos. 
 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, the latest CFS is how you watch 'ole man winter swallow a pistol.....brutal combination of east-based El Nino overlaid onto residual MC regime....look familiar?

It should-

 

19 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's a SE ridge pattern in the cold season. Will be interesting to see if we get a SE Canada ridge like is typical of Nino's or if the US pattern gets washed out to something different this Winter. 

 

[bluewave]

On 8/25/2026 at 11:09 PM, jaxjagman said:

I agree with you,it dont seem like when the monthly updates you should see much change with a typhoon going into East China the next couple days.Look at how warm those SST's are east Japan into the Pac.Its rare in a strong NINO to even witness this

Yeah, rapid warming of the SSTs near Japan as the main ridge axis migrated west from the July position north of Hawaii. 

 

 

[MJO812]

Good read

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-first-forecast-super-el-nino-polar-vortex-snow-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAT9JoxjbGNrBP0l63Bkb2YFZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQMMzUwNjg1NTMxNzI4AAEezbLprzeZm_l4j6uPr56iE-akeZ4XeTHsxqlAWZXPbVtqB7lAYJMCHZffT68_aem_PgtonIDoor2992y5PIongQ

[qg_omega]

Record warm AUGUST across CONUS, who forecasted that?

[Winter Wizard]

I'm not sure what, if any implications, this will have going forward or exactly what the root cause is but it's pretty clear August 2026 behaved much differently than other Super Nino cases (1982, 1997, 2015) and was essentially a hotter version of 2023. I don't think there was anyone in the industry who predicted anything close to a recor 

 

 

 

 

 

Right away, you could probably attribute it, at least in part, to much higher national drought coverage than we've seen in other Nino cases since 2000.

 

 

[LakePaste25]

8 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

I'm not sure what, if any implications, this will have going forward or exactly what the root cause is but it's pretty clear August 2026 behaved much differently than other Super Nino cases (1982, 1997, 2015) and was essentially a hotter version of 2023. I don't think there was anyone in the industry who predicted anything close to a recor 

 

 

 

 

 

Right away, you could probably attribute it, at least in part, to much higher national drought coverage than we've seen in other Nino cases since 2000.

 

 

The plains drought forcing the pattern is Eric’s theory as well.