bluewave Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 On 8/25/2026 at 11:09 PM, jaxjagman said: I agree with you,it dont seem like when the monthly updates you should see much change with a typhoon going into East China the next couple days.Look at how warm those SST's are east Japan into the Pac.Its rare in a strong NINO to even witness this Yeah, rapid warming of the SSTs near Japan as the main ridge axis migrated west from the July position north of Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Good read https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-first-forecast-super-el-nino-polar-vortex-snow-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAT9JoxjbGNrBP0l63Bkb2YFZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQMMzUwNjg1NTMxNzI4AAEezbLprzeZm_l4j6uPr56iE-akeZ4XeTHsxqlAWZXPbVtqB7lAYJMCHZffT68_aem_PgtonIDoor2992y5PIongQ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Record warm AUGUST across CONUS, who forecasted that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 I'm not sure what, if any implications, this will have going forward or exactly what the root cause is but it's pretty clear August 2026 behaved much differently than other Super Nino cases (1982, 1997, 2015) and was essentially a hotter version of 2023. I don't think there was anyone in the industry who predicted anything close to a recor Right away, you could probably attribute it, at least in part, to much higher national drought coverage than we've seen in other Nino cases since 2000. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 8 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: I'm not sure what, if any implications, this will have going forward or exactly what the root cause is but it's pretty clear August 2026 behaved much differently than other Super Nino cases (1982, 1997, 2015) and was essentially a hotter version of 2023. I don't think there was anyone in the industry who predicted anything close to a recor Right away, you could probably attribute it, at least in part, to much higher national drought coverage than we've seen in other Nino cases since 2000. The plains drought forcing the pattern is Eric’s theory as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 check out the climate disaster that just happened in nepal. how many more is this nino going to unleash? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 8 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: The plains drought forcing the pattern is Eric’s theory as well. Makes sense. Here was today's date in 2015 for reference...much worse on the West Coast but majority of the CONUS was drought free. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 5 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Makes sense. Here was today's date in 2015 for reference...much worse on the West Coast but majority of the CONUS was drought free. Acceleration of AGW is the answer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 28 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: I'm not sure what, if any implications, this will have going forward or exactly what the root cause is but it's pretty clear August 2026 behaved much differently than other Super Nino cases (1982, 1997, 2015) and was essentially a hotter version of 2023. I don't think there was anyone in the industry who predicted anything close to a recor Right away, you could probably attribute it, at least in part, to much higher national drought coverage than we've seen in other Nino cases since 2000. 2015 not far off, either.....likely also at least somewhat related to the residual MC influence we have discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 25 minutes ago, forkyfork said: check out the climate disaster that just happened in nepal. how many more is this nino going to unleash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2015 not far off, either.....likely also at least somewhat related to the residual MC influence we have discussed. Would be nice to get one winter without an aleutian ridge, even if we’re dealing with an extended pac jet more often than not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Just now, LakePaste25 said: Would be nice to get one winter without an aleutian ridge, even if we’re dealing with an extended pac jet more often than not. Will be interesting to see how close we get this year...my guess is 2015 like. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Will be interesting to see how close we get this year...my guess is 2015 like. Locally I’d much rather have December 1997 over December 2015. But I have my expectations very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 1 hour ago, GaWx said: too bad. you guys like to bury your heads in the sand and i won't let you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: too bad. you guys like to bury your heads in the sand and i won't let you The resources you use everyday contribute to it just as much as everyone else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 i expect below average snow in most of the Lake Erie climate sites this winter, as well as Lake America. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 i didnt know that the world was getting warmer and that cold winters were becoming less likely until forky started bump trolling people in the 2026-2027 el nino thread talking about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 8 minutes ago, roardog said: The resources you use everyday contribute to it just as much as everyone else. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: check out the climate disaster that just happened in nepal. how many more is this nino going to unleash? It's going to be really really bad once the true effects of this super Nino are felt globally. If you thought this summer was hot and smokey just wait til next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 27 Author Share Posted August 27 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Will be interesting to see how close we get this year...my guess is 2015 like. 15-16 had a monster N. Pacific trough That 14-16 was a +PDO spike really gives some weight to the pdo correlation numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 27 Author Share Posted August 27 4 hours ago, qg_omega said: Record warm AUGUST across CONUS, who forecasted that? Didn't realize that it was so warm! All El Nino minus all La Nina analogs for August before this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Some may find this Univ. of Michigan study interesting... "...We don't see a time in the past where El Niños have been as strong as today, and we show that the strength of El Niño changes in parallel with warming global temperatures,..." https://phys.org/news/2026-08-el-nios-intense-years-previous.html "..This event is superimposed on global warming, and it's likely to supercharge the temperature increase that we would normally see from greenhouse gases. There are forecasts that we might get as hot as 1.7 or 1.8 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures, which is quite a bit higher than the current record..." I've been saying this myself ... the super position of the +ENSO with CC is likely to cause synergistic results - they're naming temperatures. But, it's more broadly implicating then just temperature; put another way, makes us all prone to experiencing unusual event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: Locally I’d much rather have December 1997 over December 2015. But I have my expectations very low. Id take Dec 1997 over Dec 2015 but 2015-16 as a whole over 1997-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 I've been disappointed with the E Pacific hurricane season so far. Was hoping we'd have several land falling systems on Western Mexico to help with rain out here. Nothing. CFS is insistent every month from Sept-Mar will be wet locally. We could use that. CFS also has the entire US, except for New England, cold at least one month from Jan-Mar, so that's encouraging to see. For comparison, 2023 had 11 named systems in the Atlantic by 8/31. We're at...four. By the end of August, 2015/2019 had five, 2018 had six, and 2014 had three. 1982/1997 were relatively quiet too. 2004/2018/2023 are the more recent active hurricane seasons in El Ninos. Nice to see we're not getting a big hurricane season with this. Wyoming is favored wet in El Nino Augusts. Other than that, precipitation is still not behaving with an El Nino look. No AO/NAO/WPO/EPO/PNA signature to it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 27 Author Share Posted August 27 Precip this July-Aug has been very similar to the 2017-2025 composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 6 hours ago, Winter Wizard said: I'm not sure what, if any implications, this will have going forward or exactly what the root cause is but it's pretty clear August 2026 behaved much differently than other Super Nino cases (1982, 1997, 2015) and was essentially a hotter version of 2023. I don't think there was anyone in the industry who predicted anything close to a recor Right away, you could probably attribute it, at least in part, to much higher national drought coverage than we've seen in other Nino cases since 2000. The drought is just a natural cyclical feed back response to the excessively rainy years we have had since 2002. Consider the el nino summers of 1991, 1994 and 2002 to see summer heat during a developing el nino. We are now cycling back to that drier era and after this el Nino is over that will only increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 OLR is solidly El Niño. Deepest convective anomalies are forecasted to be around 150-160W. Will need to keep an eye out for a N Pac low as we get into September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 27 Author Share Posted August 27 9 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: Will need to keep an eye out for a N Pac low as we get into September. History says ~Sept 25-30 is the time when it should start to develop, then all the time that follows. Correlation is weakest in Sept, then 2nd weakest in July. Actually June-Sept is like -0.15 H5 correlation max in the NPH region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 15-16 had a monster N. Pacific trough That 14-16 was a +PDO spike really gives some weight to the pdo correlation numbers. I don't mean the North Pacific pattern per se...I didn't even use 2015 as an extra tropical Pacific analog. I mean that I expect the degree of MC influence to be similar to 2015. The PDO will be much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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