2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh, that looks like a smoking gun for CC adaptation in that temperature outlook. 

Not sure ... is that a straight model to publication? - or is it modified by forecaster(s) opinion en route to the public  

Because it looks damn well like they took the canonical linear El Nino correlation and then just moved it warmer by a click or two.   So instead of warm north cool south, you end up with very warm north and more neutral/average S.  

If. so... can't see I blame them.  I mean, we play this head game in here as responsible weather and climate minded people, where we are not deniers about CC ... we just play some avoidance and hedge away from it meaning warmer snow challenging winters ...haha.  At least a reticence to do so.  Anywho they don't have that luxury.  They necessarily need to be as close to accurate as they can be. 

[bluewave]

Significantly warmer summer across the CONUS than 2023, 2015, and 1997. 
 

 

[GaWx]

 The 10 day/40 run CFSv2 mean for Feb has gone from this near coldest on record of CFSv2 forecasts from SE to C Plains and cold overall much of US (Aug 7-16 runs):

 

To this just 4 days later (Aug 11-20 runs): still cold esp SE to S Plains but not nearly as cold there with 2-5F BN instead of 5-8F BN and also not as cold most other areas of the C to E US:

 

I figured that because I posted the extremely cold maps that I need to post those not as cold in the spirit of objectivity as opposed to just posting the runs I like the most.

I’ll continue to follow because it’s fun/interesting even though the CFSv2 forecast value is quite limited for 6 months out (more for entertainment).

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

+4 coming and they think they have a chance

For someone allegedly concerned about cc, you and the rest of the worry warts sure seem to revel in the warmth. Lol

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, mitchnick said:

For someone allegedly concerned about cc, you and the rest of the worry warts sure seem to revel in the warmth. Lol

Its all part of his schtick. Troll posts that almost never have anything to do with the weather. You have a board full of people whove followed the weather for decades and he actually thinks people take any of his one-liners seriously.

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

What was their prediction at this point for last winter if you know?

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

just a wee bit off on that one!

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its all part of his schtick. Troll posts that almost never have anything to do with the weather. You have a board full of people whove followed the weather for decades and he actually thinks people take any of his one-liners seriously.

isn't your area ground zero for torching in nino winters?

[forkyfork]

On 3/19/2026 at 3:24 PM, michsnowfreak said:

A strong Nino 3 years after a strong Nino? Ill believe it when I see it.

haha

[LakePaste25]

Are we really using recency bias for the CPC maps? This will be a +3C or higher Nino. 100% likelihood we see the typical super nino temp distribution regardless if the CPC was off the last winter. 

[forkyfork]

On 3/9/2026 at 6:10 PM, michsnowfreak said:

We won't know the reality for months, but i would be SHOCKED if the 2026-27 el nino is strong. You just dont get strong events like that 3 years apart. 

[Cobalt]

On 11/13/2025 at 4:25 PM, forkyfork said:

above normal temps, below normal snow. ez call

 

On 10/29/2025 at 6:44 PM, forkyfork said:

all your poor kids will never see a winter like we had growing up. sad

 

On 9/8/2025 at 11:12 AM, forkyfork said:

i can't wait to lowpost in january when we barely get to freezing

 

[forkyfork]

hope you enjoyed our last ever ku <3 

[GaWx]

 It looks like there are now two super Nino banter threads. Can these be merged?

[Maestrobjwa]

23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

hope you enjoyed our last ever ku <3 

I don't know about my area, but you know for dang sure that ain't true for your area after you just had one in THIS past February and y'all can still cash in on ninas. So that wasn't even factual trolling c'mon dude, lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

As much as those in weather circles shit on seasonal guidance for being biased towards stock ENSO, we can say the same thing about the CPC forecasts.

[LakePaste25]

W Pac has really been cooling down. 

 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

+4 coming and they think they have a chance

Where? What period? F or C? Snowfall forecast? Not that details matter in a weather forecast. 

[Brian5671]

43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't know about my area, but you know for dang sure that ain't true for your area after you just had one in THIS past February and y'all can still cash in on ninas. So that wasn't even factual trolling c'mon dude, lol

same ol shtick year after year...

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

isn't your area ground zero for torching in nino winters?

It can torch away all 3 months and it will still be colder than an average winter in your area.

[Maestrobjwa]

50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

same ol shtick year after year...

I just wanna know why man, lol But maybe that's a fruitless question!

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

Had to go back to March to find me saying I was doubtful of a strong el nino.

"we wont know what its like for months". I believe early March to late August - 5.5 months, qualifies as "months". 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

hope you enjoyed our last ever ku <3 

You and others said that years ago. That failed.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Another arctic low at -400dm today. <5100dm! Since the Solar Max peak we have been getting this a lot May-Sept (24-26). A lot of the "patterns" seem consistent actually - warm start to Summer locally then near average or cooler ending. July-Aug being wettest months locally. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, mitchnick said:

What was their prediction at this point for last winter if you know?

You know as well as I do that their forecasts underperform. I think they use mostly models, and you can actually utilize other methods (PDO, AMO, Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs, Summer arctic 500mb), to do better. As least that's how it's verified in the last 15 years. Keep in mind though that they did do really well in 15-16 and 23-24. Two of their best forecasts. but yeah, the possible fluctuation is pretty big. 18-19 was stock ENSO for a weaker Nino and it verified opposite. They had near average last Winter in the Rockies and some places were +10F for DJFM. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm getting this vibe from these outlooks that they're more interested in the N Atlantic/index correlation than the PNA to this point in time.  Not sure why that lean as both it and the +PNA are at least linearly-neg correlated. 

The 2009/2010 season tucked a short lived but potent warm ENSO into the tail end of 2009 into the first quarter of '10. That was a winter whence the NAO became so excessive it jammed all events into the SE/MA, while up this way in NE ended up with suppression depression        In a neutral ENSO year, a +PNA correlates more negatively with NAO during JAN/FEB anyway.  But 2010 perhaps "over" ideally situated that result. There may have been other hemispheric things gong on that constructively interfered and drove a synergistic wild hyper response with that look that season/year.  It was nuts!  That one "snowmaggedon" storm looked as though it was really a hybrid between any cyclone at all, together with a mass-restoring forced nodal trough pinned there by the coupled -NAO state. fascinating. I believe at least a handful of official seasonal snow totals  down there exceeded climo at sites around SNE and NNE - but not sure of that. Still, getting to within reach of N climates, in principle, evinces the point.   It was like their 2015. 

But ...as 2015 demos... +ENSOs don't always do that.  That's why I think the other was a bit of a "positive bust".  It may be worth considering though that it can happen once, it can happen again.   Leaning more E Can/NW Atl block with that weird neg tube of heights tunneling underneath down stream like Will was mentioning.. heh.  It sort of reminds me of 'too much of a good thing' and you guys taxing the love lorn to get even more euphoric reach-arounds. 

For now, I guess it being so early in the game ...best to just go with +volatility for having lower heights in the TV whilst blocking resides N in the means - should that prevail. 

I'll tell ya though ... this will be an interesting autumn in the guidance.

 

I think a lot of attention is paid to the Pacific when ENSO may actually effect N. America directly

If you look at the cold season correlation with Nino 1+2 there is actually a slightly higher max in N. America, north of the Great Lakes, than the NPH area in the N. Pacific

It will be interesting to see what happens this Winter in this regard as the PDO/overall 500mb state of the Pacific is so different from El Nino atm.