2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

-SOI is up to 87 straight days. Record is 1998’s 100 days. I don’t know if it will make it to 100.

-1015+ Darwin streak ended at 26 days, breaking old record back to 1991 of 20 days 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

Shocked the Euro is not a blowtorch for most of the country this winter..Maybe because of the strength of the Nino, people are expecting 97-98, 15-16.. Super Nino is always warm. Maybe its seeing other factors..will be interesting to see how this nino performs 

I am not that surprised since these seasonal forecast models can’t do much better than general climatology or correlations.

Never saw a seasonal model forecast an extreme pattern before it actually happened except for 2013-2014.

So I don’t expect the actual details to begin to emerge much before the model runs near the beginning of December. 

All we know for sure at this point is that this will be the strongest El Niño on record. All previous super events shared the one common aspect of warm winters.

But there is always room for variability with each new event in some regard to past ones such as ridge and trough locations. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

There is a huge statistical misperception. The odds of getting warm 5/5 times is not that low. Record breaking Nino's should probably be warm realistically 65-70% of the time. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is an even stronger east based event than 1997-1998 was. The charts below are for what actually verified in C and  F departures for that era.  It was more extreme than general El Niño correlations. 

 

 

So we are going to base this Winter on the 91-20 average? I can tell you right now that will be warm. I would rather do the most recent 30-years. 

[mitchnick]

Some Euro January temp maps off WxBell courtesy MA forum. Top map is from the July forecast and bottom is August's. 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

So we are going to base this Winter on the 91-20 average? I can tell you right now that will be warm. I would rather do the most recent 30-years. 

That post was about the 1997-1998 winter which followed 1961-1990 climatology. This winter will be using 1991-2020 normals. Rankings will be based on the 1895 to 2027 full period of record.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That post was about the 1997-1998 winter which followed 1961-1990 climatology. This winter will be using 1991-2020 normals. Rankings will be based on the 1895 to 2027 full period of record.

Global warming is obviously occurring? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Some Euro January temp maps off WxBell courtesy MA forum. Top map is from the July forecast and bottom is August's. 

I'm loving the -500mb over the Arctic this warm season. 2024 and 2025 are actually good analogs there, and they both had Winter ridging 60-90N. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm loving the -500mb over the Arctic this warm season. 2024 and 2025 are actually good analogs there, and they both had Winter ridging 60-90N. 

2024 and 2025 didn’t have the deep trough north of Alaska like this June and July. It was displaced closer to Greenland and not as strong. Could be a result of the rebound following the stratospheric warming event last November.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2024 and 2025 didn’t have the deep trough north of Alaska like this June and July. It was displaced closer to Greenland and not as strong. Could be a result of the rebound following the stratospheric warming event last November.

Since 2017 the whole arctic (60-90N) is the leading indicator for Winter pattern 60-90N. It usually reverses. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since 2017 the whole arctic (60-90N) is the leading indicator for Winter pattern 60-90N. It usually reverses. 

The pressures in general across the Arctic have been lower during the summers since 2013 with more ridging in the midlatitudes.

There has been quite a bit of volatility in regard to the winter higher latitude blocking since the 13-14 winter.

It’s been tough to hold a similar winter pattern across the Arctic for more than two winters in a row since 09-10.

We actually have had the greatest degree of volatility from month to month and year to year since then. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The pressures in general across the Arctic have been lower during the summers since 2013 with more ridging in the midlatitudes.

There has been quite a bit of volatility in regard to the winter higher latitude blocking since the 13-14 winter.

It’s been tough to hold a similar winter pattern across the Arctic for more than two winters in a row since 09-10.

We actually have had the greatest degree of volatility from month to month and year to year since then. 

Well we had a 5030dm trough yesterday, and now models warm up the area north of Alaska to +250dm for several days. Really cold periods are reversing. Montana had snow in late June then it was an all time record high in Billings, MT, 111 degrees (beating their old all time record of 108) a few weeks later. DJF 25-26 was cold, then March 26 was record warm by the largest margin ever seen, same thing in 24-25. I don't think the long term mean can really go very cold right now, but we may get periods of below average. 

Check out the correlation since 2012 though. 2019 was the warmest summer and then 19-20 was the coldest Winter of the period 60-90N. 

 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well we had a 5030dm trough yesterday, and now models warm up the area north of Alaska to +250dm for several days. Really cold periods are reversing. Montana had snow in late June then it was an all time record high in Billings, MT, 111 degrees (beating their old all time record of 108) a few weeks later. DJF 25-26 was cold, then March 26 was record warm by the largest margin ever seen. I don't think the long term mean can really go very cold right now, but we may get periods of below average. 

Check out the correlation since 2012 though. 2019 was the warmest summer and then 19-20 was the coldest Winter of the period 60-90N. 

 

2020 was a really wild swing for the Arctic. We had the very strong polar vortex during the winter and a late season snow in early May. Then the warmest Arctic summer since 2012 with the Arctic sea ice almost as low. December had a 40” snowstorm in BGM followed by a record rainstorm and warm up on Christmas. 

[EasternLI]

Maybe the NH is starting to come around slowly. If we use the JMA composite for warm enso in August. We see this wave train from the Pacific through NA. Then looking over the AIFS-ensembles 12z run, here is a 5 day mean. There is a wave train visible in the Pacific through NA similar to the one shown on the composite.