2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think the -PDO stays solidly negative until the early Fall when the pacific jet starts to climatologically strengthen for the season. At that point it will open the door for disruptions to it. The warming waters off the Western US does work against the -PDO but it’s obviously just one component of it. 

I think @raindancewxhad the right idea....it will fade to just either side of neutral for winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. 
 

And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong 

Yes, very plausible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/24/2026 at 1:30 PM, snowman19 said:

Region 4 is what makes 2015-16 a poor ENSO analog. This one is developing as a pure canonical, east-based/EP El Niño. Region 4 has been leveled off for a long time now and the most recent 15 day SST anomaly charts on cyclonicwx are actually showing region 4 cooling. All the warming is and has been concentrated in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 for months now and it looks to remain that way as far as the eye can see. The best ENSO analog for this event is 1997-98, by far IMO



Region 1+2: We are literally neck and neck with 1997

How is 2015 a poor analog? 

2015: 15JUL2015     region 1.2   2.7     region 3   1.9     region 3.4.    1.4     region 4.    1.1

2026: 15JUL2026    region 1.2 3.6      region 3.   2.3    region 3.4.    2.1     region 4.    1.1

1997:  16JUL1997     region 1.2  3.8     region 3.    1.9     region 3.4.   1.4     region 4.   0.4

2026 is even stronger everywhere else, but region 4 is identical. 

Technically, this is more east-based than 2015 because there is simply more heat back east, and region 4 is the same, but 1997 was def. more east-based. Neither of them are perfect, but I prefer 2015 because in 1997 region 4 wasn't even in El Niño territory....but again, I think it's irrelevant. 

Region 4 is leveling off, as it was in 2015 at this time if you look at the data...dropped down from 1.1 to .7 by July 29th. I think you are unnecessarily splitting hairs...we can all agree there is too much warmth east for this to act like a Modoki. It's basin-wide that will act like and east-based in the mean bc of all of the warmth back east, but there will be more volatility than a strictly east-based event.

[LakePaste25]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How is 2015 a poor analog? 

2015: 15JUL2015     region 1.2   2.7     region 3   1.9     region 3.4.    1.4     region 4.    1.1

2026: 15JUL2026    region 1.2 3.6      region 3.   2.3    region 3.4.    2.1     region 4.    1.1

1997:  16JUL1997     region 1.2  3.8     region 3.    1.9     region 3.4.   1.4     region 4.   0.4

2026 is even stronger everywhere else, but region 4 is identical. 

Technically, this is more east-based than 2015 because there is simply more heat back east, and region 4 is the same, but 1997 was def. more east-based. Neither of them are perfect, but I prefer 2015 because in 1997 region 4 wasn't even in El Niño territory....but again, I think it's irrelevant. 

Region 4 is leveling off, as it was in 2015 at this time if you look at the data...dropped down from 1.1 to .7 by July 29th. I think you are unnecessarily splitting hairs...we can all agree there is too much warmth east for this to act like a Modoki. It's basin-wide that will act like and east-based in the mean bc of all of the warmth back east, but there will be more volatility than a strictly east-based event.

Yeah I’m feeling optimistic we can at least get to a point where convection shuts down in the MC, but still have work to do for getting suppression to the dateline. The interesting thing here is that 1983 and 1998 produced nearly identical results in OLR for the back half of winter but have different outcomes in the Eastern US. Goes to my original point I made awhile ago that KU events are a huge part “luck” and not to look too much into the exact placement of warm SSTAs for this. 1998 was close to one multiple times. 

 

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How is 2015 a poor analog? 

2015: 15JUL2015     region 1.2   2.7     region 3   1.9     region 3.4.    1.4     region 4.    1.1

2026: 15JUL2026    region 1.2 3.6      region 3.   2.3    region 3.4.    2.1     region 4.    1.1

1997:  16JUL1997     region 1.2  3.8     region 3.    1.9     region 3.4.   1.4     region 4.   0.4

2026 is even stronger everywhere else, but region 4 is identical. 

Technically, this is more east-based than 2015 because there is simply more heat back east, and region 4 is the same, but 1997 was def. more east-based. Neither of them are perfect, but I prefer 2015 because in 1997 region 4 wasn't even in El Niño territory....but again, I think it's irrelevant. 

Region 4 is leveling off, as it was in 2015 at this time if you look at the data...dropped down from 1.1 to .7 by July 29th. I think you are unnecessarily splitting hairs...we can all agree there is too much warmth east for this to act like a Modoki. It's basin-wide that will act like and east-based in the mean bc of all of the warmth back east, but there will be more volatility than a strictly east-based event.

This image shows well that ‘97 was much more E based on July 19th:

[LakePaste25]

CFS does have a 1983/1998 look to it, where we get - anomalies to the dateline. 

I don’t worry too much about Nino 1+2 or even much of Nino 3. What matters most to me is how far east we see suppressed convection. You’re pretty much never going to see heavy convection near 1+2 anyway. 

[raindancewx]

Locally, almost everything I'm seeing implies a colder winter than 2023-24.

For Nov-Jan, a colder Atlantic (AMO) is correlated almost everywhere with colder US temps. That reverses later, but its important early on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You’re right, I’m not going to split hairs but this event is much warmer in region 1+2 than 2015 was but I honestly don’t think it’s going to matter with how strong this thing is going to get. Moot point. By the end of November we are going to have a completely overwhelming beast of an El Niño on our hands and I think we blow away records with the traditional ONI, RONI and the MEI
 

Absolutely agreed with this....the warmth in 1.2 renders it a moot point in terms of the seasonal mean, however the warmth in the rest leave the door open for some volatility IMHO. Regardless, it will be warm overall.

[raindancewx]

I found some of my old research and updated it for the last few years (2021-2025). It looks like the formulas still work for predicting precipitation locally in El Nino / La Nina seasonally, and even month by month.

El Nino DJF precip locally can be predicted at very high confidence (90%, within 0.8" of output, 75% odds of within 0.59") using the Sept high, Nov precipitation, and wet days in July-Sept (+1/2 of wet Jun days).

Formula is: =(B13*-0.04239*B13)-(0.30999*B13*C13)-(0.018527*B13*D13)+(0.01853*C13*C13)-(0.2244*C13*D13)+(0.00347*D13*D13)+(7.277*B13)+(28.465*C13)+(1.6066*D13)-(311.76)

Where B is Sept high, C is Nov precip, D is Wet days.

DJF highs in El Ninos locally tend to match DJF ONI, July-Jun annual sunspots, and DJF ONIp, within ~2.3F or so 90% of years. Here is 2023-24 as an example:

I never was able to find an El Nino at that solar level / trajectory - 129.6 in the rising part of the cycle. The peak was 149.2 for 2024-25 (Jul-Jun). This is the only El Nino since 1931 one year from rising to the peak. 1957, 1968, 1979 are at the peak, not before.

Dec El	ONI	Sun	ONIp	DJF Tmax
1939	1.0	125.9	-1.0	49.8
1957	1.8	281.6	-0.2	50.5
1972	1.8	75.4	-0.7	45.2
1982	2.2	129.2	-0.1	47.9
1994	1.0	36.9	0.1	54.4
Blend	1.6	129.8	-0.4	49.6
2023	1.9	129.6	-0.5	51.4

For 2026-27, there is probably no real way to use my method given what is forecast (ONI at +3.0C to +3.5C in DJF). But you can use solar (60-80?) and ONIp as anchors.

Dec El	ONI	Sun	ONIp	DJF Tmax
1965	1.4	37.1	-0.6	44.4
1972	1.8	75.4	-0.7	45.2
1982	2.2	129.2	-0.1	47.9
1997	2.2	54.9	-0.5	47.1
2015	2.5	55.8	0.6	51.4
2023	1.9	129.6	-0.5	51.4
Blend	2.0	80.3	-0.3	47.9
2026	3.1	75	-0.4	47

Solar was 106.2 sunspots/month from July 2025-June 2026, and declining. Similar initial positions/trends (roughly: 86-126) were 1939-40 (126), 1950-51 (103), 1960-61 (117), 1971-72 (101), 1982-83 (129), 1992-93 (103), 2002-03 (131), 2014-15 (91). The following years imply ~72 sunspots/month for July 2026-Jun 2027.

If you use just the solar cycle positioning/tendency, you can see 1950-51 and 2002-03 as a blend is very similar to last year for temps -

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Stormchaserchuck1What did you say the SD of your formula is? .30? 70% of getting  .30 within the outcome?

@bluewaveDo you know where that post is that you made comparing past seasonal forecasts to reality?

TIA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My early look at the polar domain...pretty deep for a first hedge.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/07/preliminary-assessment-of-polar-domain.html

Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016

2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite:

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Stormchaserchuck1What did you say the SD of your formula is? .30? 70% of getting  .30 within the outcome?

@bluewaveDo you know where that post is that you made comparing past seasonal forecasts to reality?

TIA.

0.54. 50% chance of DJFM NAO being within +0.54. I devised that in 2005, and since then have been 11-10 vs the std, so about where was originally estimated. 16-5 at getting the sign, + or - correct. 

Problem this year is I'm not going to be able to make exact numbers without Daily Climate composites. Maybe someone has a site of SSTAs for the whole period May-Sept?

[raindancewx]

I did find a site that has monthly AMO readings still. So we can do direct analogs for that again. At some point I'll compare it to the other AMO data and convert the recent winters to the old scale I have data setup for. The Atlantic is the coldest it has been in an El Nino since the 2010s - that's good for early season cold and storms diving further south generally than 2023-24. The 2018-19 El Nino actually had the AMO stay pretty low (near neutral) throughout winter/spring, and if you remember we had some storms in March powerful enough to set all-time low-pressure records in the interior West/Plains in that Spring. Was a fun pattern. In modern times, 2002-03, 2009-10 had the coldest AMO for El Nino. 

Atlantic is roughly a blend of 2015/2023, or 2018/2023 right now.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.amo.dat

2026      4      0.64
2026      5      0.70
2026      6      0.67

2023      4      0.94
2023      5      1.07
2023      6      1.27

2018      4      0.37
2018      5      0.33
2018      6      0.25

2015      4      0.29
2015      5      0.41
2015      6      0.40

2009      4      0.09
2009      5      0.11
2009      6      0.36

PDO is roughly a blend of 2015/2023 -

https://psl.noaa.gov/pdo/data/pdo.timeseries.sstens.data

[Stormchaserchuck1]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My early look at the polar domain...pretty deep for a first hedge.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/07/preliminary-assessment-of-polar-domain.html

Very nice write up Ray! Good work. You should put that link in your signature. I was hoping for Winter forecast maps at the end of your post 

I see why you always refer to your outlooks, because you put so much thought into them! 

The only thing I would like to say is that in the mean -QBO/El Nino has the most 10mb warming, not La Nina/-QBO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Very nice write up Ray! Good work. You should put that link in your signature. I was hoping for Winter forecast maps at the end of your post 

I see why you always refer to your outlooks, because you put so much thought into them! 

The only thing I would like to say is that in the mean -QBO/El Nino has the most 10mb warming, not La Nina/-QBO. 

Did I say La Niña? Must have been a typo..where about?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Did I say La Niña? Must have been a typo..where about?

You are talking about SSW's, but if you include everything, total cold season 10mb (SSWs are probably like 10% of total composite) El Nino/-QBO trumps

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You are talking about SSW's, but if you include everything, total cold season 10mb (SSWs are probably like 10% of total composite) El Nino/-QBO trumps

Oh, I was speaking specifically of SSW....I understand that in general, the PV is weaker during El Niño.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I did find a site that has monthly AMO readings still. So we can do direct analogs for that again. At some point I'll compare it to the other AMO data and convert the recent winters to the old scale I have data setup for. The Atlantic is the coldest it has been in an El Nino since the 2010s - that's good for early season cold and storms diving further south generally than 2023-24. The 2018-19 El Nino actually had the AMO stay pretty low (near neutral) throughout winter/spring, and if you remember we had some storms in March powerful enough to set all-time low-pressure records in the interior West/Plains in that Spring. Was a fun pattern. In modern times, 2002-03, 2009-10 had the coldest AMO for El Nino. 

Atlantic is roughly a blend of 2015/2023, or 2018/2023 right now.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.amo.dat

2026      4      0.64
2026      5      0.70
2026      6      0.67

2023      4      0.94
2023      5      1.07
2023      6      1.27

2018      4      0.37
2018      5      0.33
2018      6      0.25

2015      4      0.29
2015      5      0.41
2015      6      0.40

2009      4      0.09
2009      5      0.11
2009      6      0.36

PDO is roughly a blend of 2015/2023 -

https://psl.noaa.gov/pdo/data/pdo.timeseries.sstens.data

The AMO is pretty much the only aspect I didn't really touch on, though I supposed that isn't specifically connected to the polar domain, so that is probably best left for the actual outlook....but I do have that in the back of my head for colder risks. I def feel the correction vector for me is colder.

Didn't December 2018 have a mid Atlantic snowstorm? I remember it missed me, but I think it nailed VA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Funny how that NW-SE slot of warmth in my composite is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of last year, which had the cold swath there.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016

2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite:

 

 

-H5 over Greenland may be a little too cold for the Winter I think. I have found that since 2012/13, the Summer SLP state 60-90N has reversed for the Winter AO almost every time! This worked out great last Winter. We have seen +AO pretty much every day since May and models have it for the next 15 days. I think this favors -AO tendency in the Winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-H5 over Greenland may be a little too cold for the Winter I think. I have found that since 2012/13, the Summer SLP state 60-90N has reversed for the Winter AO almost every time! This worked out great last Winter. We have seen +AO pretty much every day since May and models have it for the next 15 days. I think this favors -AO tendency in the Winter. 

Yea, it's tough to convey your thoughts with surgical precision in an analog composite, but I hedged heavily throughout the narrative that confidence was much higher in a +NAO than +AO....at one point, I calculated the DJFM mean of the composite and the AO was almost dead-on neutral...barely positive. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The AMO is pretty much the only aspect I didn't really touch on, though I supposed that isn't specifically connected to the polar domain, so that is probably best left for the actual outlook....but I do have that in the back of my head for colder risks. I def feel the correction vector for me is colder.

Didn't December 2018 have a mid Atlantic snowstorm? I remember it missed me, but I think it nailed VA.

I was going to say AMO is the only thing you didn't cover besides Asia Mountain Torque lol

You could focus on S. Hemisphere Winter pattern in relation to current El Nino too

[Stormchaserchuck1]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny how that NW-SE slot of warmth in my composite is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of last year, which had the cold swath there.

I can't believe how dry last Winter was in the STJ areas! I've been thinking maybe RONI should be -1.0 to -1.5 vs ONI. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I was going to say AMO is the only thing you didn't cover besides Asia Mountain Torque lol

You could focus on S. Hemisphere Winter pattern in relation to current El Nino too

I don't think AMO is directly tied to the polar domain, though....

Yea, I have gradually been expanding my purview since I started that blog in March 2015.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I guess so, since it's North Atlantic....I'll probably add it to the polar section in the full outlook.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Reading quickly, cold AMO favors stronger PV, warm weaker. I have to brush up on that.

[Jebman]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. 
 

And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong. 

I am going to be in rainy El Nino Heaven all autumn, winter and spring with that RAGING RECORD NINO STJ!

This calls for an outright Brobdingnagian Wooo-Hoooo!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

@40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA. 

Obviously, I understand that if you read through....but I'm not sure how to avoid that with an analog composite. Not to mention this isn't a winter forecast composite....it's a preliminary polar domain composite in July.

Anyway, I did address this within the narrative.

The correction to watch for in verification is higher heights over the southeast and an expansion of the Canadian ridge to the southeast, as lower heights in the vicinity of the southeastern CONUS has been a bias during this modern era. This also applies to the preliminary polar analog composite.

 

All of that being said, if it is still possible to pop a strong GOA low in the seasonal mean, this El Niño will do it.