Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like the east trend has stopped....HRRR also nudged slightly westward.

[tavwtby]

tough call with this ivt setups, models could be off by 50-75mi and then it's a whole new ballgame, more of a nowcast type thing, like Jan 2011, iirc was modeled east of where it really sat and dumped... anyway, we coat here, anything would be nice to refresh things a bit.

[ORH_wxman]

Reggie looks solid for RI. Mini-weenies for scooter and Ray. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

My money is on the HRRR

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nope. Dec of 2020 12-18 here, boned there. Feb 13 2024 12-16 here, zero there. December 26 2025 8-9” half the amount there. Enough said. 

Jan 2022 blizzard. Like 6" here, 2 feet out there. They've had two 20"+ events this decade. I can add 2023 and 2024 season totals together and have less than they got in those storms. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What is that point supposed to show? Ct Valley ?

Yeah he’s showing me getting porked, not you. Even .09 is good for an inch here. 

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Bro, you have a place where real winter occurs. You don’t need 4”-8” of fluff. Act like you’ve been there before!

Heading back up Monday. Thank God. 

40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob good for 2-4” eastern CT, 1-3” western (the higher side prob being Litchfield county)….might go a little higher near Ginxy and towns near RI. ORH to BOS is 3-6” but obviously someone is gonna get a surprise. Favoring Essex county and then maybe someone down near S RI. Might have to watch south shore too. It’s a really difficult forecast….inverted trough/Norluns probably have the largest bust potential of any snow event as forecasters. 

Heh, that’s my map from a few hours ago. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

December 2020 was good here.

Yes, I get the two confused, it was the one  2 months later in feb that winter where we crushed it(16 plus), and you got boned in Feb of 21. Same season though. 

[wxsniss]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm like a caveman with soundings, so I use the archaic Coolwx.com site, but even on that it was obvious how elite the OMEGA profile was for KLWM, KBOS and KBEV.

A museum exhibit... I think I've seen something like this during a Dec 17 2020 WAA event:

[Hoth]

Radar is looking money in eastern CT. Congrats to those getting norluned.

[FXWX]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob good for 2-4” eastern CT, 1-3” western (the higher side prob being Litchfield county)….might go a little higher near Ginxy and towns near RI. ORH to BOS is 3-6” but obviously someone is gonna get a surprise. Favoring Essex county and then maybe someone down near S RI. Might have to watch south shore too. It’s a really difficult forecast….inverted trough/Norluns probably have the largest bust potential of any snow event as forecasters. 

I agree 100% with your general amounts overview...  This is going to be a fun nowcast looking for short-term sfc obs & radar trends Saturday morning trying to sniff out the max zones before they explode?  That's assuming this doesn't just fail to materialize...  Trust nothing until you see the whites of their eyes type of forecasting call.  Lol

 

 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Jan 2022 blizzard. Like 6" here, 2 feet out there. They've had two 20"+ events this decade. I can add 2023 and 2024 season totals together and have less than they got in those storms. 

That’s for you in New Haven..we beat them seasonally in 23-24 here by double. I listed the ones where we/I beat them. It’s been several. Yes, 22 was their last big one for sure, And it sucked here.
Ask Scott and Brett…lol they’ll tell you. 
 

not counting two weeks ago. We all killed it with this last one two weeks ago. 

[Ginx snewx]

Holy crap 

[WxWatcher007]

Dusting here so far. -SN 22.2/17

[wxsniss]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like the east trend has stopped....HRRR also nudged slightly westward.

RAPs 0z-1z-2z also ticked west

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Jan 2022 blizzard. Like 6" here, 2 feet out there. They've had two 20"+ events this decade. I can add 2023 and 2024 season totals together and have less than they got in those storms. 

Also look at 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasonal totals…we beat them in both years. So it’s been even worse there. 

[nianticct]

Snowing in waterford

[vortex95]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

December 2020 was good here.

We BIG snow!  Probably the most 40"+ reports in a NEUS storm other than March 1888 and Feb 1969.
 

[Roger Smith]

The upstream radar already looks fairly healthy and would support a widespread 2-4" foundation with the possible local augmented values already discussed. It appears to be a steady light snow all over upstate NY and Vermont already. 

[Ginx snewx]

Gfs slays

[vortex95]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My money is on the HRRR

 

[Ginx snewx]

[WinterWolf]

I’ll take my .2..nice little touch up to the pack. Congratulations out east. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Guidance all over the place here.Well see how it goes.

Going 1-2”

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like the late ticks west...little margin for error when it inevitably slides east. Everything shifted west tonight...even GFS.

[nutmegfriar]

Almost an inch already on the Chester/Deep River line with moderate snow

[metagraphica]

Almost an inch already on the Chester/Deep River line with moderate snow

Yep, impressive snow growth and rates. Easily a half inch already.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This MOFO wants to snow...look out tomorrow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My money is on the HRRR

GEM looks like this, too.