Is we back? February discussion thread

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s almost always statistical anomalies. The 61 ball in Powerball has been drawn 1.7x more than the 13 ball since 2015. 

Thanks! I'm going all in on the 13. Wolfies says it all equals out in the end.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

To be fair I don’t think there’s ever been a system in DJFM where you felt it couldn’t snow. 

trust me there's a bunch.. I just try to have hope 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The 23/24 system could have some tepid support in a relative sense.   On whole, very negative PNA through the entire period, doesn't normally inspire wildly spun up and anchored coastals.  Certainly ... during a season where we've observed    0   productivity in coastals; persistence and trend begs to differ.  Ha.   However nested within, there is still a 2 to 3 day relative maxim in there.  It would not be altogether crazy to observe a system moving through at that time  Kind of with Ray on that... sub 980 mb lows tip-toeing around the coast line as though it were the work of some cryo-dystopian artist's white dream ...that's really is not what that signal is, however. 

It's 7+ days away still. There's time for the general circulation mode to alter enough - even idiosyncratically helps.  But the problem with a very negative PNA is that the W-E coordinate is the correction vector.  It's very heavily/statistically correlated.  So it's like yeah ... a system slips through the medium, but it's favored to be more middling in amplitude, moving fast along a more E trajectory.

 

Yea, just hope to score throughout the week because next weekend has "rug-pull" written all over it, despite the pretty 4' clowns.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not excited.

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s almost always statistical anomalies. The 61 ball in Powerball has been drawn 1.7x more than the 13 ball since 2015. 

How did you find that nugget?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not excited.

Why ? Every model has the storm. Decaying blocks do wonders.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Why ? Every model has the storm. Decaying blocks do wonders.

He always worries about lbsw…

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why ? Every model has the storm. Decaying blocks do wonders.

 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He always worries about lbsw…

No, it's not an IMBY concern. I wrote about it last night. 

Revisit Friday.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How did you find that nugget?

https://www.powerball.net/statistics

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He always worries about lbsw…

Boston crushed on gfs 

[40/70 Benchmark]

We've had an abundance of blocking this year....how many big coastals??

[CT Rain]

Don't hate the GFS

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We've had an abundance of blocking this year....how many big coastals??

The blocking is going away. We usually get big storms once the block eases up.

[ineedsnow]

GFS blizzard but would like it 50 miles north 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We've had an abundance of blocking this year....how many big coastals??

The past doesn't forecast the future. Extreme cold led to suppression depression.  The tenor has changed. Just classic 

[ineedsnow]

CMC and GFS are so different at day 6

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The past doesn't forecast the future. Extreme cold led to suppression depression.  The tenor has changed. Just classic 

Oh mamma

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC and GFS are so different at day 6

I’m never particularly worried about what the CMC is showing 

[Kitz Craver]

40 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

What i would pay for that Icon soln, god damn. 

Can we just get a classic nor'easter once this season? 

I mean idc how it snows, but a blizz would be nice. 

changing the clocks ahead also increases afternoon warming...

Ehhh, What’s all that convection east… 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

No, it's not an IMBY concern. I wrote about it last night. 

Revisit Friday.

You’ll buy it when Euro op has it. That’s your go to 

[Typhoon Tip]

they're not quite the same, but end up in the same sensible weather neighborhood..

The ICON's movie reminds me of this guy -

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

they're not quite the same, but end up in the same sensible weather neighborhood..

The ICON's movie reminds me of this guy -

That’s 3/31/97. I’ll never forget that h5 look. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Boston crushed on gfs 

F*ck boston.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s 3/31/97. I’ll never forget that h5 look. 

2/6/78?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2/6/78?

That is def not ‘78 that tip posted. I’ve memorized that one too. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

F*ck boston.

So mean

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The past doesn't forecast the future. Extreme cold led to suppression depression.  The tenor has changed. Just classic 

Tenor has changed, except when the tenor means cold...got it.

[Typhoon Tip]

That's the day before the April Fools Day massacre, 1997    sorry

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

That's the day before the April Fools Day massacre, 1997    sorry

Be nice to get that 40 days earlier. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Don't hate the GFS

Now quick, go on social media and pretend to commiserate, hope it misses/ flowers boom.