Is we back? February discussion thread

[mahk_webstah]

Based on what I can ascertain so far, it gets warm in the early part of the week, maybe a day with 10 above normal or something. Then a minor system moves towards us, which might be mixed perhaps on Wednesday. Then a bigger system, which looks like a swfe and redeveloper comes in for Friday and Saturday, which should be snowy up here and a little tough to say in southern New England.

[ORH_wxman]

6 hours ago, FRWEATHA said:

The 81-82 winter turned out very good for the interior, especially CNE. I was in central NH for a weekend in late January, 1982 and the pack was like 3 feet.

‘81-82 was an excellent winter…one of the few good ones that decade. Very cold that winter with a lot of good events culminating in the April ‘82 blizzard. 
 

The problem with the 1980s is they had so few blockbuster storms…esp post-1984. We have a few biggies in 1987 (esp interior) but that’s about it. Then you mix in some absolute garbage snow winters overall like ‘84-85, ‘85-86, ‘88-89 and the decade averages out quite poor. 

[TheMainer]

23 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Based on what I can ascertain so far, it gets warm in the early part of the week, maybe a day with 10 above normal or something. Then a minor system moves towards us, which might be mixed perhaps on Wednesday. Then a bigger system, which looks like a swfe and redeveloper comes in for Friday and Saturday, which should be snowy up here and a little tough to say in southern New England.

Looks like we spike to 40 here Tuesday, but other than that only slightly above freezing. We'll take that. 

[kdxken]

Bottom dropped out on the temperatures. 12° here and - 1° at Norwood.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Trying to scratch and claw my way towards climo snowfall.  I need  around 10" to get there.  

[Modfan2]

18 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Bottom dropped out on the temperatures. 12° here and - 1° at Norwood.

Call BS on Norwood, always warm in summer and too cold in winter. Only 18F here in the valley.

[UnitedWx]

51 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Is mid and late week next week 1 system or 2?

Looks like two on the latest GFS. Wed late and Thursday showers with a cold front, then colder system Friday night. It'll change a hundred times of course

[qg_omega]

18 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if only it wasn't the highest skill model we have at this range

One of the worst performances from our "highest skill" model at under 120hrs out

[dendrite]

Rad pits shining

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

24 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Trying to scratch and claw my way towards climo snowfall.  I need  around 10" to get there.  

Same here. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Got down to 4° here. Wasn’t expecting that.

[Ginx snewx]

6z Euro next Thursday starts the parade early.

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

‘81-82 was an excellent winter…one of the few good ones that decade. Very cold that winter with a lot of good events culminating in the April ‘82 blizzard. 
 

The problem with the 1980s is they had so few blockbuster storms…esp post-1984. We have a few biggies in 1987 (esp interior) but that’s about it. Then you mix in some absolute garbage snow winters overall like ‘84-85, ‘85-86, ‘88-89 and the decade averages out quite poor. 

December 5, 1981 was a mini Feb 1969.

[Go Kart Mozart]

This morning's AIGFS is about as weenie as it gets for the full run.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Scott Koziara said:

The 80s weren't as bad as everyone thinks. 1985-1986 and 1988-1989 were awful but the rest of the decade particularly the first half of the decade was damn good particularly along the south coast. We had several big ones, including some like December 1981 that no one remembers or talks about. Slant sticking is more common today than back then and I believe the statistical snowfall averages are somewhat skewed. I remember catching the school bus and it seemed a lot colder back then compared to the last 20+ years.

I always reference that, as I just did   One of two events where my area slayed ORH.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

NNE was a different story in the 80’s. SNE was the tough spot most times. Tons of mixed events…it was very hard(but obviously not impossible) to get a pure snow storm then in SNE.  Was just the pattern/cycle back then. 

It was the decade of "-EPOoooooo no", as @CoastalWxsays. The 80's was a decade heavily predisposed to +NAO/-EPO...which made for a high volume of messy snow to rain events in SNE, but NNE cleans up in that regime. I remember we would have 3" of crust on the ground where I grew up in Wilmington/Woburn area, only to get up to our camp in Heniker, NH and just be awe-struck when they had like a 3' pack.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was the decade of "-EPOoooooo no", as @CoastalWxsays. The 80's was a decade heavily predisposed to +NAO/-EPO...which made for a high volume of messy snow to rain events in SNE, but NNE cleans up. I remember we would have 3" of crust on the ground where I grew up in Wilmington/Woburn area, only to get up to our camp in Heniker, NH and just be awe-struck when they had like a 3' pack.

Yeah I remember NNE doing well in the limited times I went up there. And then I remember hearing about the random biggies the Cape got and down toward the mid Atlantic. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All joking aside a 1-3 or 2-4 type event south of pike is very much on table Sunday night 

He's at the "bargaining" stage of acceptance, I see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I remember NNE doing well in the limited times I went up there. And then I remember hearing about the random biggies the Cape got and down toward the mid Atlantic. 

I recall one event where we have like 5" at my dad's in Woburn....I was ecstatic, until I heard the cape had over a 1', then my mood dampened rapidly. Even at like 7 years old, I was IMBY to the core.

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

6z Euro next Thursday starts the parade early.

Let’s do 6z gfs 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Rad pits shining

 

15.6 IMBY. I usually radiate well, but not last night.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I recall one event where we have like 5" at my dad's in Woburn....I was ecstatic, until I heard the cape had over a 1', then my mood dampened rapidly. Even at like 7 years old, I was IMBY to the core.

I lived in Brockton much closer to the cape but far enough to get boned. 

[weatherwiz]

Should be an interesting ride the back half of February probably right into at least the first week of March. After about the second week of March or so I will be game to start looking for warmer weather. Until then lets pile it on

[ORH_wxman]

I think you’d be surprised how bad NNE did in the 1980s too. Esp the latter half. Lot of stein up there. Early 80s we’re great there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Should be an interesting ride the back half of February probably right into at least the first week of March. After about the second week of March or so I will be game to start looking for warmer weather. Until then lets pile it on

Yes, I think we have plenty more snowfall to go. I have never bought the early-ending banter for a moment, although I see the argument.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think you’d be surprised how bad NNE did in the 1980s too. Esp the latter half. Lot of stein up there. Early 80s we’re great there. 

It wasn't 2007-2008, but they did much better than we did relative to normal.

[CoastalWx]

I have that picture somewhere of me on a sled after the December 81 storm. It was quite the outfit lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Next week looks pretty good imho. That first system is the weaker of the two and it’s prob also the warmest but it could still snow right down into most of SNE…second one looks a bit colder. Really good arctic airmass lurking north and most guidance wants to advect a slice of that in here ahead of of the Friday system. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Next week looks pretty good imho. That first system is the weaker of the two and it’s prob also the warmest but it could still snow right down into most of SNE…second one looks a bit colder. Really good arctic airmass lurking north and most guidance wants to advect a slice of that in here ahead of of the Friday system. 

Let the parade begin 

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

This morning's AIGFS is about as weenie as it gets for the full run.  

Euro Skynet was pretty good too. A lot of snow events/threats.