Is we back? February discussion thread

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s coming?

I think so!! 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think later in the 11 to 15 day what you’d wanna see is as that -WPO ridge  retros perhaps we can try to pop somewhat of a +PNA. If you can do that, you’ll limit the amount of Pacific air going into Canada and obviously you’d have a better chance of something here late month or early March. My point in all this is that it looks a little tenuous to me that’s all.

Fair enough. Thanks for the insight. I m sure we play with fire, but it’s worth it now as we head towards the last quarter of the season. 

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If you actually look at 500 mb anomalies you’ll see exactly what I’m talking about.

Yes I never look at 5H just a kid weenie. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I think so!! 

Icon EPS!

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Fair enough. Thanks for the insight. I m sure we play with fire, but it’s worth it now as we head towards the last quarter of the season. 

I love Snow more than anyone, but one of the worst things you can do is try to pull for it, even in the face of uncertainty. I just try to give my insight and try not to be biased.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes I never look at 5H just a kid weenie. 

To be fair, looping precip like that really doesn’t give you a feel for the pattern. I know what you’re trying to do and I’ve looked at that too, but it doesn’t really tell a story.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not frustrated about Monday at all. Is it disappointing, sure… But I’ve been against this for days.
 

I do get a little annoyed when people just post weenie crap on here and just don’t look at any models or anything like that. I spend a lot of time looking at stuff and giving my thoughts here. Do I joke and mess around, sure but I think we all doing some shape or form. You’ll never see me insult anyone or anything like that.

It’s all good. Just remember too, that most of us are hobbyists, and are not pros. We do things that are gonna probably annoy folks like you and Will at times…I think we all get that. And I think I speak for a lot of guys in here(along with myself), when I say that we’ve learned a ton from professionals such as yourself, Will, FXWX, and Ray, and Steve too, that we can’t put a price on.  
 

Sometimes we get excited, and may post or say things that may be laughable…but it’s mostly only because of enthusiasm.  
 

Anyway, I agree with what you laid out a few posts back about the long wave pattern that may be coming later in the month, and early March. Thanks for the explanation and insight too. 

[The 4 Seasons]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I think so!! 

I think we're gonna see some more teases before it's eventually over. It just won't die completely on ensembles. Even the 6Z GEFS has a couple big hits on it when 00Z had zero. EPS and AIEPS have several.

I'd give it a <10% chance but it's worth keeping one eye half opened. 

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Icon EPS!

lmao, i saw that, MJOs favorite model now that the NAVGEM is gone

[CoastalWx]

From what I heard, a shift towards colder weather in March I guess mid March is the target… It’s gonna be more MJO driven. So we’ll see how that goes. Maybe in the meantime, we can ride the lightning until then. 
 

Personally I hope it’s earlier. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s all good. Just remember too, that most of us are hobbyists, and are not pros. We do things that are gonna probably annoy folks like you and Will at times…I think we all get that. And I think I speak for a lot of guys in here(along with myself), when I say that we’ve learned a ton from professionals such as yourself, Will, FXWX, and Ray, and Steve too, that we can’t put a price on.  
 

Sometimes we get excited, and may post or say things that may be laughable…but it’s mostly only because of enthusiasm.  
 

Anyway, I agree with what you laid out a few posts back about the long wave pattern that may be coming later in the month, and early March. Thanks for the explanation and insight too. 

I'm not a pro, but thanks.  I can hold my own, but there are certain aspects where Will and Scoot really distinguish themselves in terms of avenues to success with respect to phasing potential and overall pattern progression. Sounding interpretation is one area that I am really deficient relative to them.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love Snow more than anyone, but one of the worst things you can do is try to pull for it, even in the face of uncertainty. I just try to give my insight and try not to be biased.

I couldn’t agree More. And let’s throw all our chips on the table and gamble with riding the line.  If it fails…so be it, and let’s get spring in here by late March(although that’s probably a pipe dream lol). But you know what I mean. 

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s coming?

 

20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I think so!! 

Do you two need a cig?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

From what I heard, a shift towards colder weather in March I guess mid March is the target… It’s gonna be more MJO driven. So we’ll see how that goes. Maybe in the meantime, we can ride the lightning until then. 
 

Personally I hope it’s earlier. 

I think through the third week of March would work for me, but once we hit the last week of March climo nosedives and 95% of threats are elevation dependent.

[weatherwiz]

Kevin is right...there could be some snow showers (even some squalls tomorrow night) but a dry boundary layer might be an issue. That's a pretty potent shortwave diving southeast with very steep mid-level lapse rates

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Kevin is right...there could be some snow showers (even some squalls tomorrow night) but a dry boundary layer might be an issue. That's a pretty potent shortwave diving southeast with very steep mid-level lapse rates

MAY COUNTDOWN TO SNE SEVERE BLUE BALLS!!

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MAY COUNTDOWN TO SNE SEVERE BLUE BALLS!!

I like the color blue 

[dendrite]

58 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ensembles work by creating multiple perturbations to the initialization. They have a way of knowing where the largest errors are likely to occur and run from there. But perturbations are technically introduced error at initialization. So if you’re overall trending toward fewer “hits” as we approach the short range that’s a bad sign. 

[alex]

The skiing is out of this world. And this is not some woods in the middle of nowhere, this is chair served terrain

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MAY COUNTDOWN TO SNE SEVERE BLUE BALLS!!

dreams of SLGT risks 

[Cyclone-68]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MAY COUNTDOWN TO SNE SEVERE BLUE BALLS!!

Just another 150 years for another Worcester or Springfield 

[Cyclone-68]

Are boobie lows considered “weather porn”? Inquiring minds and all that 

[Typhoon Tip]

Wish folks had more respect for the index methodology - it's correct the vast majority of times...not sure why or if there is reticence to either understand it, or implement  ... but Monday was never signaled from that source and I painstakingly applied that logic and analytic content to the discussion over the last week...

It's also this group frankly.  In the face of presumptive/prohibitive limitation that is there, in place, the model run at hand that defies those mitigations with some cinema gets immediately pimped out.  Meanwhile the situation was never changed..  Oh well.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I went 60-70" here and I'm at 49.5" currently.

You’re a solid 8”-10” ahead of me now. But I think that sort of what you thought in your long range, right?

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ensembles work by creating multiple perturbations to the initialization. They have a way of knowing where the largest errors are likely to occur and run from there. But perturbations are technically introduced error at initialization. So if you’re overall trending toward fewer “hits” as we approach the short range that’s a bad sign. 

0z had none

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ensembles work by creating multiple perturbations to the initialization. They have a way of knowing where the largest errors are likely to occur and run from there. But perturbations are technically introduced error at initialization. So if you’re overall trending toward fewer “hits” as we approach the short range that’s a bad sign. 

-Like 1 in a thousand?

-More like... 1 in a million.

ineedsnow:

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You’re a solid 8”-10” ahead of me now. But I think that sort of what you thought in your long range, right?

I am kind of due to pillage you for a few years....you have been killing me during these lean years and we are usually similar.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, alex said:

The skiing is out of this world. And this is not some woods in the middle of nowhere, this is chair served terrain

The winter carnival is underway here and it’s a great time for it. Over 7” of powder the last few days. Torchlight skiing on tap tonight. Still snowing.

 

The ice palace is quite nice.

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, alex said:

The skiing is out of this world. And this is not some woods in the middle of nowhere, this is chair served terrain

How’s Bretton Woods for learn to ski type stuff? Thinking about it for next week but I’m not sure what I’m gonna do.

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I think we're gonna see some more teases before it's eventually over. It just won't die completely on ensembles. Even the 6Z GEFS has a couple big hits on it when 00Z had zero. EPS and AIEPS have several.

I'd give it a <10% chance but it's worth keeping one eye half opened. 

lmao, i saw that, MJOs favorite model now that the NAVGEM is gone

Just can’t be pulled yet . Maybe by 18 or 0z

[CoastalWx]

I just don’t feel like taking out a loan to do this. Skiing is out of control ridiculous.