Is we back? February discussion thread

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

lol. priceless 

There is nothing better than fucking with Wolfie. It’s like part of my morning routine, take a poo, go to the gym, fuck with Wolfie. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The last whatever it was went over to Asia so from what I’ve heard and understand we’re not gonna be depending on that for much blocking.
 

That is February, first of all, second, our coldest weather actually comes from stretches, anyway...as we saw in January.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

There is nothing better than fucking with Wolfie. It’s like part of my morning routine, take a poo, go to the gym, fuck with Wolfie. 

I’ve been quiet the last few mornings. But whatever. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be schocked if we don't have some fun in March.

yeah, we’ll probably have something but we rounded the corner and it’s winding down overall. It’s like in September. Sure we could get a heat wave but summer is winding down. I see milder temps, melting….and it just feels like back broken. Doesn’t have the feel like it did a month ago. JMHO.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is February, first of all, second, our coldest weather actually comes from stretches, anyway...as we saw in January.

Sounds like from what I’ve heard they don’t expect much help from the strat in March. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

yeah, we’ll probably have something but we rounded the corner and it’s winding down overall. It’s like in September. Sure we could get a heat wave but summer is winding down. I see milder temps, melting….and it just feels like back broken. Doesn’t have the feel like it did a month ago. JMHO.

Yea, back is brocken, but there remains a functional spine....it's not a paraplegic. I just think you need to be a bit more nuanced in your approach here.

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

yeah, we’ll probably have something but we rounded the corner and it’s winding down overall. It’s like in September. Sure we could get a heat wave but summer is winding down. I see milder temps, melting….and it just feels like back broken. Doesn’t have the feel like it did a month ago. JMHO.

Many preseason forecasts were front loaded and the warmer 2nd half; is this the start of the warmer 2nd part of winter?

[SnoSki14]

The CC related fast flow has definitely played a role in lack of coastals. I think 10+ years ago we would've scored with the big coastal earlier and the one coming up. 

Northern stream only systems is why half the country is in a drought 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sounds like from what I’ve heard they don’t expect much help from the strat in March. 

Sounded like they never saw any chance of a SSW in February, until guidance actually showed it at like 10 days lead. It didn't work out, but my point is that group-think isn't very effective....this stuff isn't often apparent until very short leads. This harkens back to what I said to @Typhoon Tipyesterday, about letting the foundational pre-season work guide you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

The CC related fast flow has definitely played a role in lack of coastals. I think 10+ years ago we would've scored with the big coastal earlier and the one coming up. 

Northern stream only systems is why half the country is in a drought 

We didn't have the MJO constantly flexing in the MC and flatlining in the west Pac at that point.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, back is brocken, but there remains a functional spine....it's not a paraplegic. I just think you need to be a bit more nuanced in your approach here.

That looks like it’s setting up for April hell. 
 

 

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is nothing better than fucking with Wolfie. It’s like part of my morning routine, take a poo, go to the gym, fuck with Wolfie. 

If the Panda was a Wolf…

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That looks like it’s setting up for April hell. 
 

 

Let’s get a couple of good 36° catpawed April stemwinders.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Remember, Scott....we don't necessarily need the mother lobe of the PV in close proximity to have a productive March at this latitude. 2018 was a perfect example of that. Now granted, we aren't going to get the major SSW in time like we did that year and I thought we would this year, but that doesn't necessarily mean we won't get another round of stretching. Furthermore, this season has also already very aptly demonstrated a strong predisposition towards high latitude latitude blocking at least excuse imaginable due to the aforementioned strat-solar-ENSO overlay, which is what I meant by adhering to pre-season work. Where was the huge stratospheric smoking gun that triggered the latter January NAO blocking??

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That looks like it’s setting up for April hell. 
 

 

Yes, it's a final warming, but point is it's not strong at any point in March, either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyway, good discussion....this is why our threads are awesome.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It will def. be a late-spring...that was always a given IMHO. Question remains RE how much snow is left in the balance.

[Ginx snewx]

9 hours ago, alex said:

Yikes, sorry to hear that. Sucks to have things happen because of physical limitations. I’ve been dealing with some newly diagnosed heart problems (AFib), it sucks not to be able to do the things you want/need to do. But hey, it can always be worse. 

I had atrial flutter and an ablation I can relate. Getting old supposed golden years my ass lol

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, it's a final warming, but point is it's not strong at any point in March, either.

Yeah definitely final warming. 
 

As westerly winds weaken we can be prone to more blocking. It just sounds like from what I gather many in the field aren’t counting on that in March. Of course there are various ways to get blocking….just what I heard.

I don’t care either way, I just want to know if it will snow or nots  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah definitely final warming. 
 

As westerly winds weaken we can be prone to more blocking. It just sounds like from what I gather many in the field aren’t counting on that in March. Of course there are various ways to get blocking….just what I heard.

I don’t care either way, I just want to know if it will snow or nots  

It's definitely less likely since we didn't get the SSW, but more than one way to skin a weenie.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I had atrial flutter and an ablation I can relate. Getting old supposed golden years my ass lol

Sorry, Steve. My mother has afib....

[NoCORH4L]

We'll get our coastals in April and May and then they'll cut off and become occluded right over us for weeks of misery mist and rain. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll take a closer look at March when I do the preview in a couple of weeks....gonna decompress for now. I don't keep my eyes pinned on the long range throughout the season like people may suspect...I tend to just go into snow-hunt mode. I do a deep dive for the outlook, obviously, and then only dip my toes back into it for the monthly previews.

[dryslot]

What a yawner coming up.

[tavwtby]

10 hours ago, FXWX said:

Any road coverage

yeah wound up about a half inch, the roads were a mess this morning but have since cleared, plows actually came by 

[ineedsnow]

A few 6zEPS members hit again.. never give up 

[alex]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I had atrial flutter and an ablation I can relate. Getting old supposed golden years my ass lol

Haha yep. I had that too - in the fall, all was well for a while then the AFib begun 2 weeks ago. 
 

in better news, my stake is almost buried. First time in years 

 

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, alex said:

Time for a picnic table picture

how'd you manage that?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

how'd you manage that?

Fake snow 

[Lava Rock]

7 minutes ago, alex said:

Haha yep. I had that too - in the fall, all was well for a while then the AFib begun 2 weeks ago. 
 

in better news, my stake is almost buried. First time in years 

 

I imagined you being 25-30yrs old