Is we back? February discussion thread

[ORH_wxman]

WinterWolf right now

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s lock in next Thursday/Friday on euro. 
 

All northern stream.

[codfishsnowman]

Bid 31 and its not even mid February.....I haven't seen those kind of readings since February 2015!

[ORH_wxman]

Amazingly, the EPS still has quite a few members that are hitting us for the 16th. I am not buying it but it is not completely out of left field if that system tries to make a comeback…it’s still far enough out that it could. 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Don't do it for something that pedestrian. It can get way way way worse.

Let’s relive this

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Amazingly, the EPS still has quite a few members that are hitting us for the 16th. I am not buying it but it is not completely out of left field if that system tries to make a comeback…it’s still far enough out that it could. 

That’s what we mentioned. It’s very much alive 

[codfishsnowman]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s relive this

Lol that's Kevin's snowed for days and days out East 

[Kitz Craver]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Amazingly, the EPS still has quite a few members that are hitting us for the 16th. I am not buying it but it is not completely out of left field if that system tries to make a comeback…it’s still far enough out that it could. 

Can you post?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s what we mentioned. It’s very much alive 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Can you post?

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

No. No. No. It’s a cold and snowy run bro. That’s tenor.

Nobody ever said that…really? WTF?  I said  the tenor is the tenor(for cold to win out)…which it has been. I never said the the Euro, or this or that model was right.  Just because the Euro shows snowy and cold, doesn’t mean I believe it.  So let’s see if it shows this 5 days from now? If it dies, and the GFS caves, then the Euro will be following the tenor of the season…which was for cold to find a way to win out. 

[dendrite]

The 957 and 958 look legit. 

[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

WinterWolf right now

Good one .  
 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Nobody ever said that…really? WTF?  I said  the tenor is the tenor(for cold to win out)…which it has been. I never says the or that model was right.  Just because the Euro shows snowy and cold, doesn’t mean I believe it.  So let’s see if it shows this 5 days from now? If it dies, and the GFS caves, then the Euro will be following the tenor of the season…which was for cold to find a way to win out. 

Think of it, persistence has won out for the most part for the last several years.

[dendrite]

Where’s the ineedsnow micromember map so I can tell which numbers those were

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Snowy 

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s relive this

No thx

[WxWatcher007]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s relive this

Disgusting.

[The 4 Seasons]

22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s relive this

I think that is, by far, the largest area of 30+ red shading ive seen on any NESIS map, including Feb 13 which has like almost nothing above 30". Is that not overly conservative for once?

[ORH_wxman]

Interesting phenomenon….how many western peeps would turn down 10” of snow on top of their current pack so they wouldn’t have to watch eastern folks get 30”? 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting phenomenon….how many western peeps would turn down 10” of snow on top of their current pack so they wouldn’t have to watch eastern folks get 30”? 

I would not. 

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting phenomenon….how many western peeps would turn down 10” of snow on top of their current pack so they wouldn’t have to watch eastern folks get 30”? 

Well, there’s one in the Merrimack Valley that would turn down 15 inches of snow if I got 25 inches.

[weatherwiz]

That mindset is so foolish...no wonder some are always disappointed, too worried about what somewhat else got instead of enjoying what they got. 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Think of it, persistence has won out for the most part for the last several years.

Well it’s the same here in this case for this year. It wants to stay cold…if the Euro is showing that, then whatever.  If the GFS was showing that, the same thing. I mean we are only in 2nd week of February, the cold should win out overall for at least another month. …not the extreme that we’ve had, but cold nonetheless.  I’m not taking the Euro at face value…but if it’s right, then at least it WS correct in that regard. 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting phenomenon….how many western peeps would turn down 10” of snow on top of their current pack so they wouldn’t have to watch eastern folks get 30”? 

i wouldn't as long as that was the expectation going in 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

i wouldn't as long as that was the expectation going in 

That's a great point that need to be added on. 

If I was expecting 20-25" but only got 10"...well the tone may be different  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

 

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting phenomenon….how many western peeps would turn down 10” of snow on top of their current pack so they wouldn’t have to watch eastern folks get 30”? 

This season right now, no thanks.  All is right in the snow department though as A”ENE”ATT is destroying WNE after our +6” December.
 

 In December I’ll take any snow I can get, but it’s getting late in the season, wouldn’t want the agony of watching you guys do naked snow angels in a 30”+ blizzard while I get 4-10” of snow that melts in a few days. 
 

BTW I envision this as Kevin as you posted the EPS

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That mindset is so foolish...no wonder some are always disappointed, too worried about what somewhat else got instead of enjoying what they got. 

Comparison is the thief of joy

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm inclined to think the EPS system is overly conserving the amplitude of that wave space in attempting to send it through the enormous non-linear destructive interference of the -d(PNA). 

It's not like it's dropping.  It's going down like a disgraced prom queen.  It's trying to send a cyclonic signal through a field where the anticyclonic potential is rising.  

GFS might not be precisely handling the bits and pieces but in principle, it latched on to this deadening signal sooner, has been consistent since, and actually fits the motif better.  

Anomalies nest inside anomalies some times....  I guess one way to over come is to have so much power at the lower scale, that it can offset the larger scale tendency to cancel it out.  A scenario that seldom occurs.  

[ineedsnow]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Where’s the ineedsnow micromember map so I can tell which numbers those were

some is from today lol