Is we back? February discussion thread

[Snowcrazed71]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

After your 3 to 6 tomorrow lol you are Debby defined 

I couldn't agree more, I feel like every time I answer him I have to answer a child. He whines like a little baby LOL. It gets tiring after a while. Everyone's aware that we're going to be transitioning, but he just goes into this tantrum. Probably best not to answer him anymore.

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Next 7 days we don't break freezing on 6 zGFS with 2 snow events 

Using ORH?

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

After your 3 to 6 tomorrow lol you are Debby defined 

Beer?

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Beer?

Don't worry man, your pacifier is on its way!!

[dendrite]

Almost everyone will be above freezing Wed

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I couldn't agree more, I feel like every time I answer him I have to answer a child. He whines like a little baby LOL. It gets tiring after a while. Everyone's aware that we're going to be transitioning, but he just goes into this tantrum. Probably best not to answer him anymore.

What tantrum? I tell it how it is. You’re clouded with ACATT. You guys can’t handle the warm up.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Don't worry man, your pacifier is on its way!!

So do you want me to lie? I guess that’s what pacifies you.

[8611Blizz]

FFS its just slightly warmer weather. People losing their shit over 38 degrees in February. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray gets his rain.

If it rains, it rains....just get the storm in here and I'll take my chances.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What tantrum? I tell it how it is. You’re clouded with ACATT. You guys can’t handle the warm up.

[Layman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So do you want me to lie? I guess that’s what pacifies you.

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it rains, it rains....just get the storm in here and I'll take my chances.

Now that post from me obviously is kidding around. I didn’t know this was such a sensitive topic.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it rains, it rains....just get the storm in here and I'll take my chances.

I agree.  Ride the lightning

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now that post from me obviously is kidding around. I didn’t know this was such a sensitive topic.

It's definitely warming up...I don't see why people are jumping down your throat.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's definitely warming up...I don't see why people are jumping down your throat.

Thank you. It’s highly annoying. I want snow more than anyone, but I’m not going to play mental games and convince myself. Hope Monday works out, but it’s tenuous in many ways.

[SJonesWX]

what’s with the hurricane today? It’s windier than it was over the weekend

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thank you. It’s highly annoying. I want snow more than anyone, but I’m not going to play mental games and convince myself. Hope Monday works out, but it’s tenuous in many ways.

Congrats on the mesos 3 to 6 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thank you. It’s highly annoying. I want snow more than anyone, but I’m not going to play mental games and convince myself. Hope Monday works out, but it’s tenuous in many ways.

A lot of the March 2018 events were tenuous, too.....can still work. There was not a ton of cold around that month.

[Snowcrazed71]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So do you want me to lie? I guess that’s what pacifies you.

Stop twisting it around. You know how you've acted, take responsibility. Once you do that we can take the pacifier back and you will have graduated to a big boy pants!!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

There’s probably a parallel universe where we’re bitching about the cold and lack of snow right now. Given the consistency of the deep BN days, we’re kind of lucky to have gotten the snow we got…SWFE on roids, some inv troughs that overperformed, some light clippers that overperformed. 

There has been snow on the ground here since Dec 2nd.  It's definitely been better than the past few winters, especially with regards to pack retention.  Very wintery feel for weeks and weeks now.  

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A lot of the March 2018 events were tenuous, too.....can still work. There was not a ton of cold around that month.

We had a decent airmass and a high in a good position. Though. Of all events the mid month deal had a good airmass for the time of year. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Stop twisting it around. You know how you've acted, take responsibility. Once you do that we can take the pacifier back and you will have graduated to a big boy pants!!

Not sure what you want. You have other members including Mets talking about the Monday setup and moderation. I never said snow is impossible, I said the setup is tough and rain is a viable option. 

[CoastalWx]

Sometimes you just need to look at the big picture, and you can use this gfs run as an example. You have a short wave approaching with low pressure approaching the Carolinas, but look at that bulge of warm air and ridging to the west. You’re also losing the high to the east. So all around you’re getting warm air advection pretty much surrounding this low and that short wave now is starting to attenuate because of that push-up warmth behind it. This is what I mean by not being in a good set up. Could it work, I guess if you really thread a needle, but all I’m trying to do is have people at least understand that this might not work out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO OP went to shit with rain....EPS still outside BM.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEFS and EPS actually in good agreement just outside of BM.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian whiffs.

[weatherwiz]

The Sierra's are certainly going to be making up their snow deficit 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian whiffs.

Good! Maybe we can move towards a model compromise by mid week.

[Typhoon Tip]

Speaking of big picture ... the big picture is trying to see-saw the pattern into a -PNAP structure.

Whilst some of these prior runs were also driving a trough through the eastern rising heights of that -d(PNA) ?

that's a red flag, and probably why the operational GFS is pulling the rug on that event as a no show.  I should have seen this myself sooner but heh, I'm seeing it now. 

It may or may not 86 the idea altogether, but I wouldn't go more than middling with all that in mind.  I think those eye-candy Euro runs from the other day are less able to verify given the large scale is negatively interfering. 

This is the mirror equivalency to ending a heat wave on Aug 10 after a hot summer, and the models looking tepid out in time. The warm enthusiasts are arguing that the back isn't broken this and that... while cool enthusiasts are overselling the significance of it...  rinse repeat.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Next 7 days we don't break freezing on 6 zGFS with 2 snow events 

 

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hope so.  We usually see one or two dumps of modified stuff later in February or March, but hopefully nothing record-breaking.

To be clear I think winter is far from over. I just think it’s unlikely I’m below zero again this season. Still squarely in a good spot for snowfall but climo will be more hostile for big cold after the coming thaw. Still can be BN of course.