Is we back? February discussion thread

[Ginx snewx]

When 1979 2010 patterns pop up the same time as cyclogenesis you end with snow to SC

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But that is why the fast flow narrative is flawed…when it is used to say that’s why no  coastals for SNE.  Because if that was the case, there’d be zero coastals, and there’s a nice one going on tonight.  The reason it’s not getting to us is more than just one single thing. And those things at some point will correct themselves, and put us back in the coastal business. 

 

You’re right, It’s not permanent.  And it’s not the (only) reason why we haven’t had a good coastal. And Of course it’s happened before.  

Again...agreed on the fast flow. Said that a few times....but if you are getting stuck in forcing patterns that destructively interfere with east coast amplification, you have two options:

1 The storms develop and amplify elsewhere....great leakes

2 You get a storm on the southeast coast in a cold pattern that can't amplify enough to clime the coast until it's over Atlantic, and becomes a Maritimes storm.

I agree I don't think it's permanent...Mother Nature will find a way.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Again...agreed on the fast flow. Said that a few times....but if you are getting stuck in forcing patterns that destructively interfere with east coast amplification, you have two options:

1 The storms develop and amplify elsewhere....great leakes

2 You get a storm on the southeast coast in a cold pattern that can't amplify enough to clime the coast until it's over Atlantic, and becomes a Maritimes storm.

I agree I don't think it's permanent...Mother Nature will find a way.

March 18 will find a way to happen again. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

March 18 will find a way to happen again. 

I agree.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Again...agreed on the fast flow. Said that a few times....but if you are getting stuck in forcing patterns that destructively interfere with east coast amplification, you have two options:

1 The storms develop and amplify elsewhere....great leakes

2 You get a storm on the southeast coast in a cold pattern that can't amplify enough to clime the coast until it's over Atlantic, and becomes a Maritimes storm.

I agree I don't think it's permanent...Mother Nature will find a way.

Ok, makes sense there. Not arguing that part. The part that doesn’t add up, is the thought(and not from you) that this is some how some sort of new regime, or idea.   It is not. 
 

Kind of like the whole silly idea the past few years that clippers were a thing of the past.  How come no more clippers? Where are the clippers?    Well, now they’re back and in abundance once again.  
 

Whatever is causing the coastals to not get up here..or amplify close enough to the coast lately(forcing,flow etc etc), for SNE Will at some point change and that will be that.  And I Appreciate your insight Ray on these ideas. 

[NyWxGuy]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Bad luck doesn't cause the coastal track to go dormant for years. Definitely the forcing though with those record ssts over the west Pacific 

There is no luck in weather. Fast flow, driven by record warm SSTs, year after year in the North Pacific, is causing an active northern stream to outpace a southern stream. Couple that with 2 La Nina’s in a row where the  STJ is inactive; and you get cold and dry. But even in a El Niño, where STJ is more active, northern stream continues to outpace and doesn’t amplify along the coast. And 2023 and 2024 were like blowtorch winters anyway in the east, so even when there was amplification, you had benchmark rainstorms. A pattern like this one in the 2010s or 2000s would have had us buried in snow. 

[TheSnowman]

Ray Posted 11 times in Page 13.  That’s a Record!  

 

And we’d Better get something after I get home Tuesday.  It’s Bad Enough I’m missing the Historic Cold and it gets to 30 As SOON as I get back.  What the Bleep.  I’ve got to look at wet streets and melty non-powder snow.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup. It always has to be a CC attribution with some of these people…what a dam joke. 

I mean, there’s no doubt CC is a factor. But it’s a factor among several others. When you combine CC, poor background phases, and bad luck, this is what you get.

Ray is right though, our big storm last week had virtually nothing to do with east coast phasing/storminess

[DirtySnowDen]

21 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Welcome to the jungle. Location? 

KMMK.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, NyWxGuy said:

There is no luck in weather. Fast flow, driven by record warm SSTs, year after year in the North Pacific, is causing an active northern stream to outpace a southern stream. Couple that with 2 La Nina’s in a row where the  STJ is inactive; and you get cold and dry. But even in a El Niño, where STJ is more active, northern stream continues to outpace and doesn’t amplify along the coast. And 2023 and 2024 were like blowtorch winters anyway in the east, so even when there was amplification, you had benchmark rainstorms. A pattern like this one in the 2010s or 2000s would have had us buried in snow. 

There's luck involved in everything....chaos, whatever you want to call it. The pattern can be perfect and sometimes it just doesn't work out.

We did have an El Nino like 2023-2024...it was 1972-1973...-PDO /strong Nino combo. It was just as awful in terms of snowfall, but not as warm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We had a -PDO decade like this...the 1950s...it was colder, but still sucked for snowfall. We didn't get "buried" in shit patterns before...they still sucked.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean, there’s no doubt CC is a factor. But it’s a factor among several others. When you combine CC, poor background phases, and bad luck, this is what you get.

Ray is right though, our big storm last week had virtually nothing to do with east coast phasing/storminess

There’s nuance to everything… and CC is a charged term that leads to a visceral reaction more than other factors.

One could imagine a situation where a variety of factors influence the rate of something occurring, but doesn’t stop it from happening all together.

The debate of “no coastal storms anymore due to fast flow and CC” vs “its snowing in the deep south on the coast” is severely lacking in nuance on both sides.  It’s binary thinking that ignores context and oversimplifies the issues at hand for both points of the argument.

[weathafella]

The 50s did have some good coastals.  I remember we moved into a new house in our town in NNJ on 2/29/56.  Going to my new school 3/1 with a squeaky few inches of snow underfoot.  A few weeks later all hell broke loose really solidifying my life of being a snow weenie.  But there were some dud winters in the 50s that improved in the second half of the decade.  Having had 2 feet of snow with the majority unmoved by melting or any other process reminds me that perhaps 8-12 would be more fun and a more manageable aftermath.  With that said-we expect to be back before 3/1 (leaving tomorrow) so 2 feet in March is perhaps more manageable for us pedestrians and town snow removal.

[Ginx snewx]

Flurries 12⁰

[Modfan2]

Scooter seeing some ocean enhanced snow?

[CoastalWx]

Yawn for awhile. When are we supposed to buckle up?

[EasternLI]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There's luck involved in everything....chaos, whatever you want to call it. The pattern can be perfect and sometimes it just doesn't work out.

We did have an El Nino like 2023-2024...it was 1972-1973...-PDO /strong Nino combo. It was just as awful in terms of snowfall, but not as warm.

There is a meteorological term for that IMO. Internal variability within a longwave pattern. Stuff like wave spacing, shortwave interactions, etc. There's research out there that describes it in that way. I do believe chaos is even mentioned sometimes lol.

[CoastalWx]

Buddy on the NC/SC border on the water has almost a foot

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yawn for awhile. When are we supposed to buckle up?

February 6 eighth does not look exciting but could give us a nice refresher. It appears to me that the next period of interest is around the 13th of 14th.
My view is that at some point the dry pattern will break and it’ll probably start to get good around mid month and given the reversal stratosphere thing that might continue through a good part of March. What’s your take?

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yawn for awhile. When are we supposed to buckle up?

The models really want to tank the PNA after the 10th. I know Ray expected that….

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

February 6 eighth does not look exciting but could give us a nice refresher. It appears to me that the next period of interest is around the 13th of 14th.
My view is that at some point the dry pattern will break and it’ll probably start to get good around mid month and given the reversal stratosphere thing that might continue through a good part of March. What’s your take?

Just looks boring for awhile. Maybe a little refresher best weekend and perhaps something after the 10th but at this point kind of losing patience. We watch the pack melt and sublimate. 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just looks boring for awhile. Maybe a little refresher best weekend and perhaps something after the 10th but at this point kind of losing patience. We watch the pack melt and sublimate. 

It’s different up here. The cold is deep and the snowpack isn’t super deep, but it’s very solid and should be for a good long while. I think it’s snow piles up here from mid month on.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just looks boring for awhile. Maybe a little refresher best weekend and perhaps something after the 10th but at this point kind of losing patience. We watch the pack melt and sublimate. 

It’s interesting that you are losing patience after just having had a storm of almost 2 feet.

but I understand it. The times I really crave are the couple of days leading up to a storm, obviously the storm itself, and then the next couple of days. That’s why once I have a snow pack I don’t need a big storm as much, I’m happy with 3 to 6 inch storms on top of a snow pack because if you have 20 inches on the ground and it’s snowing hard and you’re getting 4 inches. it feels like a big storm. 
there is a psychology to this that I don’t fully understand

[CoastalWx]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

It’s interesting that you are losing patience after just having had a storm of almost 2 feet

It looked better to me earlier this week. Now it’s just kicking the can. This storm missed, later this week looks meh. Saddle up for 7” in a 15 day span per AI.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The models really want to tank the PNA after the 10th. I know Ray expected that….

We need the PNA to go neutral to slightly negative. Suppression sucks.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need the PNA to go neutral to slightly negative. Suppression sucks.

That’s when it could get better. But unfortunately boredom for a bit. Maybe we refresher later this week or weekend.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe half inch of wind blown fluff here but looks like just SE of me gets a couple. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s when it could get better. But unfortunately boredom for a bit. Maybe we refresher later this week or weekend.

We got lucky with the storm last weekend. Other than that, second winter in a row with alot of cold air around . 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yawn for awhile. When are we supposed to buckle up?

Clipper 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Clipper 

That’s not a given. I guess we wait until PNA drops. Was hoping we could grab something beforehand.

A few days ago I mentioned the NW flow and that’s what we have. So hope for clippers. Not sure we can buckle the flow enough for something larger.