The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[overcautionisbad]

1 minute ago, Rhino16 said:

 

What’s the difference between a “first guess” and “first call”?

He considers the first guess more of his prediction of things 72 hour before. Then says his first call is his first actual snowfall forecast

 

Welp, gg

I expect his last call map will be adjusted tomorrow.

[ravensrule]

11 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

 

What’s the difference between a “first guess” and “first call”?

Hell if i know, it probably gives DT more guesses without saying he screwed up. 

[hosj III]

Is the NAM trying to do something here

[hstorm]

6z NAM is way NW. 3k NAM is less aggressive but also significantly NW. 

[Army Mike]

Only a couple hundred mile shift....The NAM is just looking for attention 

[hstorm]

RGEM is slightly north too, at least with the overall precip field.

12k NAM has 1”+ snow up to around Fredericksburg. 

[jlewis1111]

[jlewis1111]

6z Nam def trending North with precip amounts

[osfan24]

January 25, 2000!

Sike. Just NAM being the NAM and still hundreds of miles from us.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

NAM looks like it’s gonna be NW again with the precip, I’m hoping to back into snow showers and wind. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

 
6z:

[NorthArlington101]

I was looking at the models this morning and feeling bad for our North Carolina/SE VA weenies but they mostly seem to be feeling okay? I took a very quick glance at the AIFS & its ens and thought the world would've exploded.

[Bob Chill]

Light snow falling down here. Not much virga. Radar returns are light but it's making it to the ground. Not expecting much. 1-3  or something like that. 

[paulythegun]

1 hour ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

 
6z:

yeah....sadly. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

8 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

yeah....sadly. 

Better position but worse track. I don't think we're getting anything here, but you know, It's fun to watch I guess? 

[paulythegun]

15z SREF still with 4 members out of 27(?) with over 10" of snow for DCA. Max is 26.3". Good times. 

The SREF is definitely sniffing out the north trend that I'm imagining on the radar. 

[EHoffman]

17 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

15z SREF still with 4 members out of 27(?) with over 10" of snow for DCA. Max is 26.3". Good times. 

The SREF is definitely sniffing out the north trend that I'm imagining on the radar. 

Beautiful day to radar hallucinate.  Did you see how far north the virga is getting? 

[jlewis1111]

18 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

15z SREF still with 4 members out of 27(?) with over 10" of snow for DCA. Max is 26.3". Good times. 

The SREF is definitely sniffing out the north trend that I'm imagining on the radar. 

Its not over til its over... How reliable are the SREF's?

[NorthArlington101]

Imagine if the 12z HRRR did what it just did to Raleigh/VA beach to DC/Baltimore. Now that’s worth a crashout.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Too bad, it's a beauty

[WEATHER53]

Odd to me how this storm has a pronounced “U” formation to the precip shield .  I don’t think that dramatic of a dip will occur so the outcome of this not set in stone