overcautionisbad Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: What’s the difference between a “first guess” and “first call”? He considers the first guess more of his prediction of things 72 hour before. Then says his first call is his first actual snowfall forecast Welp, gg I expect his last call map will be adjusted tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 11 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: What’s the difference between a “first guess” and “first call”? Hell if i know, it probably gives DT more guesses without saying he screwed up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Is the NAM trying to do something here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6z NAM is way NW. 3k NAM is less aggressive but also significantly NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Army Mike Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Only a couple hundred mile shift....The NAM is just looking for attention 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 RGEM is slightly north too, at least with the overall precip field. 12k NAM has 1”+ snow up to around Fredericksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6z Nam def trending North with precip amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 January 25, 2000! Sike. Just NAM being the NAM and still hundreds of miles from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 NAM looks like it’s gonna be NW again with the precip, I’m hoping to back into snow showers and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I was looking at the models this morning and feeling bad for our North Carolina/SE VA weenies but they mostly seem to be feeling okay? I took a very quick glance at the AIFS & its ens and thought the world would've exploded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Light snow falling down here. Not much virga. Radar returns are light but it's making it to the ground. Not expecting much. 1-3 or something like that. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, IUsedToHateCold said: 6z: yeah....sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 8 minutes ago, paulythegun said: yeah....sadly. Better position but worse track. I don't think we're getting anything here, but you know, It's fun to watch I guess? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 15z SREF still with 4 members out of 27(?) with over 10" of snow for DCA. Max is 26.3". Good times. The SREF is definitely sniffing out the north trend that I'm imagining on the radar. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 17 minutes ago, paulythegun said: 15z SREF still with 4 members out of 27(?) with over 10" of snow for DCA. Max is 26.3". Good times. The SREF is definitely sniffing out the north trend that I'm imagining on the radar. Beautiful day to radar hallucinate. Did you see how far north the virga is getting? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 18 minutes ago, paulythegun said: 15z SREF still with 4 members out of 27(?) with over 10" of snow for DCA. Max is 26.3". Good times. The SREF is definitely sniffing out the north trend that I'm imagining on the radar. Its not over til its over... How reliable are the SREF's? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Imagine if the 12z HRRR did what it just did to Raleigh/VA beach to DC/Baltimore. Now that’s worth a crashout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Too bad, it's a beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Odd to me how this storm has a pronounced “U” formation to the precip shield . I don’t think that dramatic of a dip will occur so the outcome of this not set in stone 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Odd to me how this storm has a pronounced “U” formation to the precip shield . I don’t think that dramatic of a dip will occur so the outcome of this not set in stone U for underperform 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Finally getting a few flakes here, started a little before 5 am. Least it won't be a goose egg at 7 am report time. Currently light snow and 12.9/5.5. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Getting kinda lucky I think. Picked up up an inch overnight/early AM and steady light high ratio snow. 16 degrees. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Up to 2 inches so far. Looks like most models are going to bust low on the NW periphery. Not sure if I can squeak another inch out but the mesos aren't going to do well with this one in my yard. 15 degrees and the wind is picking up. Roads dont look like roads lol. Snowmobiling isnt a thing down here but I sure wish I had one today lol. Deep winter. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Up to 2 inches so far. Looks like most models are going to bust low on the NW periphery. Not sure if I can squeak another inch out but the mesos aren't going to do well with this one in my yard. 15 degrees and the wind is picking up. Roads dont look like roads lol. Snowmobiling isnt a thing down here but I sure wish I had one today lol. Deep winter. My gosh that's an amazing shot! Here's hoping it makes it to Midlo! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Green echos lifting due north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Looks like snow approaching south of DC any of that reaching the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Let the radar hallucinations begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 16 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Looks like snow approaching south of DC any of that reaching the ground? The closest mPing reports are SW of Richmond 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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