February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[SACRUS]

Daylight:

10H:41M
 

Surise: 6:50 AM / Sunset: 5:31 PM

Roughly equivalent to 10/25

 

We've gained 1H26Mins from the winter lull

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the deeper consolidated low storm track just east of the APPS was responsible for a significant portion of their heaviest snowstorms and seasons. This storm track has pretty much been missing for the last 20 years. These days the primary lows tend to track to Cleveland or Buffalo with a weaker secondary going to their east. So they get both dry slots and warmth cutting down their snowfall totals.

This is one of the reasons that I have been paying attention to the storm tracks responsible for our seasonal snowfall here. All of our seasons like this one with the coastal areas from EWR to ISP reach 25”+ since the 1990s have featured at least one benchmark NESIS snowstorm with a wide coverage of 10”+ amounts in the Northeast sometimes extending down into the Mid-Atlantic.

Numerous seasons since 2018-2019 have been missing this storm track so most of the recent years have featured below average snowfall. Much of the time has featured the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track. Sometimes we get a hugger gradient in the I-78 to I-84 corridor leading to mixing even with the storm to our south. Following the late January benchmark snowstorm, we have reverted back to this common storm track pattern. So we only had one week this season with a dominant Southern Stream capable of producing a widespread 10”+ event near the coast.

My question going forward is can we keep some semblance of this benchmark track active at times for the remainder of the 2020s so we can have more seasons at least approaching average? We had a discussion several months back about 50”+ snowfall seasons at EWR, NYC, LGA, and JFK. I expressed concern that it would be a challenge reaching this level due to how Northern stream dominant our storm tracks have become in addition to how warm the winters have become. Since a prerequisite for these 50”+ seasons especially during La Ninas and also El Ninos has been a winter with an average temperature near 32.0°. Well we finally got our first cold winter  in over a decade. But the Southern stream was only able to become dominant for a week before the Northern Stream started dominating again.

Most of the seasons since the 1990s as cold as this one featured 50”+ like 14-15, 13-14, 10-11 and 09-10. But those seasons allowed the Southern Stream to dominate long enough for widespread 50”+ snows around NYC. My guess is that the 2025-2026 winter could possibly be the only one this coldest for the remainder of the 2020s since cold bas been so scarce since 2015-2016. So its still uncertain whether we can get a near 32° winter to line up with a more relaxed Northern Stream for a 50”+ season. Since these two features have been necessary. 

Past 8 year stretches with snowfall this low like the late 1980s into early 1990s ended with 1993-1994 going 50”+ and 1995-1996 getting 75”+. So the remainder of the 2020s will be an important to see what the snowfall averages will look like heading into the 2030s.

You raise important questions.

The shift in the predominant storm tracks that you observed may be the result of an ongoing structural shift in storm tracks rather than periodic cycles. Many factors are involved, including cyclical ones, but there is at least some evidence that Arctic amplification is contributing.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/10/jcli-d-16-0650.1.xml

I still suspect that by the mid-2030s, we'll have a lot more answers related to regional snowfall, etc.

 

[MJO812]

Larry Cosgrove likes until March 14 for snow and cold chances in the east.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

You raise important questions.

The shift in the predominant storm tracks that you observed may be the result of an ongoing structural shift in storm tracks rather than periodic cycles. Many factors are involved, including cyclical ones, but there is at least some evidence that Arctic amplification is contributing.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/10/jcli-d-16-0650.1.xml

I still suspect that by the mid-2030s, we'll have a lot more answers related to regional snowfall, etc.

 

Completely agree. I have been actively comparing 2020 onwards to 1970 through 1999 and until now we are actually ahead of 1970 through 1976 for snowfall and above average snowfall winters.

Also that period had 4 above average snowfall winters in 30 years, which was pretty bad living through it like I did (80s onwards).

I distinctly remember the patterns were cold dry/warm wet for the majority of the winters (outside of the furnaces of the late 80s/early and lat 90s and the cold and dry early and mid 80s). So far outside of 2020/2021 we have seen either the furnace or cold and dry with the same overall storm track of the 1970 through 1990s. 

The similarities between 1955 and 1969 and 2000 through 2018 are also incredible.

So like you stated, given that the last snowfall drought was a whopping 30 years we will need to wait until the mid 1930s to see if we have fared worse that that period. I would also like to leave the door open for INCREASED snowfall if the waters around the MJO phase 8 region also warm and allow for better storm tracks/increased warmth leading to larger snowstorms and less suppression. 

Some positive observations are:

Still getting snow to the gulf

Still getting benchmark storm tracks

Still getting late season snow (May a couple of years ago)

Still getting multiple below average temperature winter months

The return of the clipper.

The return of non-se ridge linking NAOs

The hindrance of continuous phass 3 through 6 due to warm water pac waters

The recent negatives are lower benchmark tracks and general increased global temps.

Will be interesting to say the least.

[MJO812]

Next chance and maybe the final chance will be around the 23rd. 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next chance and maybe the final chance will be around the 23rd. 

What happened to March? 

[wthrmn654]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next chance and maybe the final chance will be around the 23rd. 

Of.. March or February 

[IrishRob17]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

What happened to March? 

Will parking be available?

[JustinRP37]

This is a very weird winter. If it is this dry in June-August we are in trouble. As much as I love the blue bird days…

[MJO812]

Euro is also now on board with a coastal storm on the 23rd.

 

[MJO812]

[wthrmn654]

And KDIX radar is offline again as of yesterday,  surprise, surprise. 

FTMDIX
Message Date:  Feb 14 2026 08:42:09
The KDIX radar is down at this time. Technicians will be contacted later this mo
rning to work to resolve the issue. We apologize for any inconvenience.
==================
NOUS61 KPHI 141455
FTMDIX
Message Date:  Feb 14 2026 14:55:18
KDIX remains inoperable. ETs were contacted and will be in this afternoon to fur
ther evaluate. Thank you for your patience.
==================
NOUS61 KPHI 142224
FTMDIX
MESSAGE DATE:  FEB 14 2026 22:24
KDIX REMAINS INOPERABLE. ETS WERE UNABLE TO TROUBLESHOOT SUCCESSFULLY. RTS UNKNOWN

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

And KDIX radar is offline again as of yesterday,  surprise, surprise. 

FTMDIX
Message Date:  Feb 14 2026 08:42:09
The KDIX radar is down at this time. Technicians will be contacted later this mo
rning to work to resolve the issue. We apologize for any inconvenience.
==================
NOUS61 KPHI 141455
FTMDIX
Message Date:  Feb 14 2026 14:55:18
KDIX remains inoperable. ETs were contacted and will be in this afternoon to fur
ther evaluate. Thank you for your patience.
==================
NOUS61 KPHI 142224
FTMDIX
MESSAGE DATE:  FEB 14 2026 22:24
KDIX REMAINS INOPERABLE. ETS WERE UNABLE TO TROUBLESHOOT SUCCESSFULLY. RTS UNKNOWN

Considering the high amount of down time, perhaps there should be discussion about whether to replace rather than repair the radar. Downtime has been a recurrent theme since at least last summer.

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Considering the high amount of down time, perhaps there should be discussion about whether to replace rather than repair the radar. Downtime has been a recurrent theme since at least last summer.

The error is again the pedestal/ transmitter... but yes if not replace,  a major re-hab non the less. 

[Freezing Drizzle]

Temperatures are within a remarkably narrow range in this forum's area, 35 to 40F.

[wthrmn654]

And the stretch of not hitting 40°F continues. Going on now  since January 22nd! 

[donsutherland1]

A weak system will pass south of New York City tonight into early tomorrow. The temperature will likely remain near or above freezing during most of the event. Assuming a snow-liquid ratio of about 6:1 to 7:1 based on past cases with < 0.20" precipitation and lows of 31°-33° with a storm total 0.10"-0.15" QPF, New York City and nearby suburbs will likely see a coating to 1" of snow (probably 0.5”-1.0” in Central Park). A realistic high-case figure for New York City is 1.5". A few places across central New Jersey and Long Island could pick up 1"-3" of snow. Most amounts will be 2" or less in those areas.

Following the light snowfall, the clouds will break and the temperature will top out in the lower 40s in New York City. Tuesday will also see highs reach the middle 40s. A warm front will cross the region on Wednesday with some rain showers or a period of rain but its progress could slow or stall. Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +15.37 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.188 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (4.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

[Brian5671]

Rain this week will wash the salt away finally 

[jm1220]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

You raise important questions.

The shift in the predominant storm tracks that you observed may be the result of an ongoing structural shift in storm tracks rather than periodic cycles. Many factors are involved, including cyclical ones, but there is at least some evidence that Arctic amplification is contributing.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/10/jcli-d-16-0650.1.xml

I still suspect that by the mid-2030s, we'll have a lot more answers related to regional snowfall, etc.

 

What’s happened in central PA is definitely not a cycle unless it’s a very long term one. Like Bluewave mentioned the storms that really slam that area have essentially gone extinct. 

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is also now on board with a coastal storm on the 23rd.

 

 

Got to get within 4-5 days we haven’t had a coastal in 2 yrs 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Got to get within 4-5 days we haven’t had a coastal in 2 yrs 

I say 2 days

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

What’s happened in central PA is definitely not a cycle unless it’s a very long term one. Like Bluewave mentioned the storms that really slam that area have essentially gone extinct. 

I don't disagree. The linkage to Arctic amplification likely explains much of what has been observed.