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February 2026 OBS & Discussion


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And KDIX radar is offline again as of yesterday,  surprise, surprise. 

FTMDIX
Message Date:  Feb 14 2026 08:42:09
The KDIX radar is down at this time. Technicians will be contacted later this mo
rning to work to resolve the issue. We apologize for any inconvenience.
==================
NOUS61 KPHI 141455
FTMDIX
Message Date:  Feb 14 2026 14:55:18
KDIX remains inoperable. ETs were contacted and will be in this afternoon to fur
ther evaluate. Thank you for your patience.
==================
NOUS61 KPHI 142224
FTMDIX
MESSAGE DATE:  FEB 14 2026 22:24
KDIX REMAINS INOPERABLE. ETS WERE UNABLE TO TROUBLESHOOT SUCCESSFULLY. RTS UNKNOWN
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2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

And KDIX radar is offline again as of yesterday,  surprise, surprise. 

FTMDIX
Message Date:  Feb 14 2026 08:42:09
The KDIX radar is down at this time. Technicians will be contacted later this mo
rning to work to resolve the issue. We apologize for any inconvenience.
==================
NOUS61 KPHI 141455
FTMDIX
Message Date:  Feb 14 2026 14:55:18
KDIX remains inoperable. ETs were contacted and will be in this afternoon to fur
ther evaluate. Thank you for your patience.
==================
NOUS61 KPHI 142224
FTMDIX
MESSAGE DATE:  FEB 14 2026 22:24
KDIX REMAINS INOPERABLE. ETS WERE UNABLE TO TROUBLESHOOT SUCCESSFULLY. RTS UNKNOWN

Considering the high amount of down time, perhaps there should be discussion about whether to replace rather than repair the radar. Downtime has been a recurrent theme since at least last summer.

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Considering the high amount of down time, perhaps there should be discussion about whether to replace rather than repair the radar. Downtime has been a recurrent theme since at least last summer.

The error is again the pedestal/ transmitter... but yes if not replace,  a major re-hab non the less. 

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A weak system will pass south of New York City tonight into early tomorrow. The temperature will likely remain near or above freezing during most of the event. Assuming a snow-liquid ratio of about 6:1 to 7:1 based on past cases with < 0.20" precipitation and lows of 31°-33° with a storm total 0.10"-0.15" QPF, New York City and nearby suburbs will likely see a coating to 1" of snow (probably 0.5”-1.0” in Central Park). A realistic high-case figure for New York City is 1.5". A few places across central New Jersey and Long Island could pick up 1"-3" of snow. Most amounts will be 2" or less in those areas.

Following the light snowfall, the clouds will break and the temperature will top out in the lower 40s in New York City. Tuesday will also see highs reach the middle 40s. A warm front will cross the region on Wednesday with some rain showers or a period of rain but its progress could slow or stall. Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +15.37 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.188 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (4.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

You raise important questions.

The shift in the predominant storm tracks that you observed may be the result of an ongoing structural shift in storm tracks rather than periodic cycles. Many factors are involved, including cyclical ones, but there is at least some evidence that Arctic amplification is contributing.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/10/jcli-d-16-0650.1.xml

I still suspect that by the mid-2030s, we'll have a lot more answers related to regional snowfall, etc.

 

What’s happened in central PA is definitely not a cycle unless it’s a very long term one. Like Bluewave mentioned the storms that really slam that area have essentially gone extinct. 

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10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

What’s happened in central PA is definitely not a cycle unless it’s a very long term one. Like Bluewave mentioned the storms that really slam that area have essentially gone extinct. 

I don't disagree. The linkage to Arctic amplification likely explains much of what has been observed. 

 

 

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