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February 2026 OBS & Discussion


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CMC looks good and the Euro is a monster with phasing and dynamic cooling ftw (along with EPS and AIFS-EPS and the AIFS jumped 100-150 miles north), but not the UK/GFS.  I think we now have something legitimate to track, at least, even if the setup is still pretty marginal for snow in these parts.  Ya never know and it seems like it's been a long time since we had a marginal pattern/setup deliver a threaded needle for us.  

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6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Feb is typically our snowiest month but so far and as far as we can see it’s a strikeout. Maybe something will happen by the end of the month but it’s not promising right now. I don’t think this winter is a failure by any means like the last few but if we strike out on snow from here it’ll be average or a little better in general because of the cold. But that’s my opinion. 

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If the Euro and Canadian show a similar snowy solution at 12Z - this snowstorm potential is real IMO since it would be only a few days away - hard to believe the current GFS would lead the way on this. The northern stream relaxing a little is key to prevent suppression. Also this time of the year you can get a snowstorm around here with marginal cold enough air and with the water temps in the lower to some mid 30's that helps also.......

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Well, most of NNJ/CNJ (along/N of 78)/SENY just got some freezing rain over the last couple of hours, so those advisories were well placed. Everything here is coated with a thin glaze of ice, although salted paved surfaces are fine, but unsalted ones are a bit slick and probably worse along/N of 78 where more freezing rain fell. Temps don't go above 32F for most until 7-9 am, so be careful if you're an early riser.

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