February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[guinness77]

2 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

im from albs. i can attest that it will be a freezer throughout march. full seasonal depression energy until may

I only lived there one year ‘95-96, but this was my experience there. Not sure I saw the sun for 2-3 months. 

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

I only lived there one year ‘95-96, but this was my experience there. Not sure I saw the sun for 2-3 months. 

I have a bad feeling the frigid waters will come back and bite us all through April and May as we sit in mid 40s and gunk/drizzle. It'll take sustained warmth to turn that around. 

[kat5hurricane]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I just can’t give this winter a good grade if we end up with below normal snow especially with blown opportunities in all this cold air. Anyone can see it as they want lol. 

It depends on preference. If you're one to prefer persistent snowcover and cold then I don't know how this could be less than a B but if you look purely at snowfall amounts in total then it's been average at best as it's been predominantly cold and dry outside of the big storm and the 2-3 moderate ones.

[kat5hurricane]

5 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Yup…. Hopefully we can get something else if not it was a waste of cold. 

I've said this before but I don't see how it's a waste of cold when we had a 10-18" areawide snowstorm a few weeks ago. 

[donsutherland1]

The persistent and often severely cold pattern is now breaking. 

Tomorrow will be even milder with the temperature topping out in the upper 30s. A few places could reach 40°. A cold front will likely cross the region, possibly touching off a few snow flurries or rain showers. It will turn somewhat cooler into the weekend.

By early next week highs will mainly be in the upper 30s and lower 40s with lows in the lower 30s. 20s are possible outside New York City.

Precipitation could arrive on Sunday or Monday. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +5.72 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.407 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.3° (4.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

 

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I've said this before but I don't see how it's a waste of cold when we had a 10-18" areawide snowstorm a few weeks ago. 

i'm still navigating the piles and hit one again today; still can't park on the street, still have to wear ice grip shoes, still freezing my ass off on morning walks. today seemed balmy. yes i would have liked a few more events; but we had a few in december, and then we had a major storm where we almost had a foot here if not for sleet, in a regime hostile to snow chances; and it stuck around forever. they were digging for a week here. let's take the win guys.  it does not look like much else will be happening, but i would take this every year.....

[North and West]

I've said this before but I don't see how it's a waste of cold when we had a 10-18" areawide snowstorm a few weeks ago. 

People like to be unhappy and to share that feeling with others.


.

[MJO812]

Eps more NW of 12z and op

[BoulderWX]

Hoping we can get some decent sun with the warmer temps tomorrow to start to thaw some of this ice and snow pack that has gotten so gross. A good soaking rain would be beneficial for multiple reasons as well but have to wait a bit for one or those it looks like. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, kat5hurricane said:

I've said this before but I don't see how it's a waste of cold when we had a 10-18" areawide snowstorm a few weeks ago. 

Feb is typically our snowiest month but so far and as far as we can see it’s a strikeout. Maybe something will happen by the end of the month but it’s not promising right now. I don’t think this winter is a failure by any means like the last few but if we strike out on snow from here it’ll be average or a little better in general because of the cold. But that’s my opinion. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Feb is typically our snowiest month but so far and as far as we can see it’s a strikeout. Maybe something will happen by the end of the month but it’s not promising right now. I don’t think this winter is a failure by any means like the last few but if we strike out on snow from here it’ll be average or a little better in general because of the cold. But that’s my opinion. 

agreed, but it was still better than many others we've suffered through.

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Eps more NW of 12z and op

The AI models being south doesn't give me any confidence.

[nycsnow]

[Prue11]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

agreed, but it was still better than many others we've suffered through.

You’re lowering your standards because of the last 4-5 winters 

[Prue11]

This would be considered a bad winter in the 2010s as far as snowfall goes. I’m with JM, if it’s below average snowfall I can’t consider it a good or great winter 

[nycwinter]

31 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

the only reason i would want rain is to wash away a lot of this horrible salt on the sidewalks and streets..

[SACRUS]

Todays split

 

EWR 36 / 22 (-5)
NYC: 36 / 24 (-5)

[Nibor]

Pretty sunset tonight

[NorthShoreWx]

light snow, 32°  N Smithtown

Mainly graupel.  Got a dusting

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

28.4 and light snow has changed to light freezing rain. A dangerous trip down the driveway to bring out the recycle. 

[nycsnow]

[nycsnow]

[Rjay]

Light...rain!!

[MJO812]

Euro !

[MJO812]

Euro AI ensembles also way north 

[winterwx21]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro !

Hopefully the Canadian has been leading the way with the snowstorm idea for Monday. Good to see the Euro jump aboard. Temps are borderline but it's just cold enough if everything goes right. Big-time dynamics on this Euro run. 

[MJO812]

Eps on board 

[Prue11]

12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Hopefully the Canadian has been leading the way with the snowstorm idea for Monday. Good to see the Euro jump aboard. Temps are borderline but it's just cold enough if everything goes right. Big-time dynamics on this Euro run. 

You guys are really getting your hopes up lol. This is either going to be a rain event or suppressed to the south 

[RedSky]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

You guys are really getting your hopes up lol 

Like what could go wrong

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

You guys are really getting your hopes up lol. This is either going to be a rain event or suppressed to the south 

Says who? Its most likely an archambault event.