wthrmn654 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Only got to balmy 30 today nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: with well below normal Atlantic waters? Good luck with that especially with any east flow off the water in March/April Ocean temps are the coldest in years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: That's more May/June, but definitely not March. Blocking in Greenland is warm East/cold West in March (see 2012) and most of April. This is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 13 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Source: Facebook meteorologist. https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollierWx/posts/a-few-days-ago-i-mentioned-the-potential-for-a-colder-pattern-by-mid-february-ti/1421647855979147/ Does anyone know his track record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Source: Facebook meteorologist. https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollierWx/posts/a-few-days-ago-i-mentioned-the-potential-for-a-colder-pattern-by-mid-february-ti/1421647855979147/ Does anyone know his track record? Probably similar to just about everyone else - right most of the time but busts sometimes - Collier holds a Bachelor's degree in Meteorology and a Bachelor of Science in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and The University of Tulsa.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucy Pull Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 29 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: That's more May/June, but definitely not March. Blocking in Greenland is warm East/cold West in March (see 2012) and most of April. March 2012 for reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucy Pull Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 When I think of blocking in March I think of 2013. Obviously results will vary based off PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said: March 2012 for reference there's no greenland bock there-it's way east-scandinavian block 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I can guarantee you this will be a miserable spring. The cold ocean is enough, especially out here. Long island wont hit 80 until June unless we get a heat blast from the W/NW. Over the top heat wont even do it this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 24 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said: March 2012 for reference March 2012 was defined by a lack of Greenland blocking. The NAO was positive on 27 of the 31 days and never strongly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 hours ago, the_other_guy said: After all this we are going to put a near goose egg in the snowfall books for February? Is this really unfolding in front of us? There's like three weeks left in February. Save a post like this for Feb 20th or later at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Boring weather followed by a rain threat Monday…. Really thought things were gonna be different after the January storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 57 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Probably similar to just about everyone else - right most of the time but busts sometimes - Collier holds a Bachelor's degree in Meteorology and a Bachelor of Science in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and The University of Tulsa.. I'm interested in his track record. Anyone can put up a .WX on social media, create sites, or apps and "forecast." And, models and ensembles have virtually no skill at the lead time involved. Finally, there's no verification of past claims. The reason I ask, is because he is wrong when it comes to early spring (the transitional period) and Greenland blocking. For both the first and second halves of March (late winter/eaely spring transition), Greenland blocking results in cooler conditions in the East. Getting the basics wrong is a red flag. I am not suggesting right now that March will be cold or warm. I am focusing on the narrower point that Greenland blocking leads to a colder March outcome, not a warmer one. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 KEY MESSAGE 3... A deep Pacific trof is expected to spawn low pres E of the Rockies by Sat, then track it across the Southeast and offshore by Mon, potentially passing close enough to impact the local area. The modeling has been consistent with the general idea of the storm, but there remains a high amount of uncertainty with the details. Most of the data suggests a W to E, or SW to NE type track, not making a big hook up the coast. The arctic air thus far looks limited, so this could be a sys with a lot of mixed pcpn and rain, with a decent freezing rain threat inland if the low tracks to the S and the flow remains backed at the sfc. Too far out to have confidence in the details, and with the AIGFS consistently S of the area, it could end up being just a glancing blow or nothing at all. Still, with the multi-model support, the NBM is producing a 60-70 pop for the event. Stuck with the NBM for the fcst, but of all the fields the temps in particular may be much too high for the event if the flow remains backed and CAD occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 RGEM GFS and NAM have 1-2 inches just north of NYC tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Whatever the merits of this map, arctic cold does not arrive in the west from the central Pacific. It builds down from the Yukon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Work took me down Seaside today; I’ve never seen the Barnegat Bay frozen solid from shore to shore. Manasquan inlet up by Point was open water, but down by the Route 37 bridge it was frozen solid. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I'm interested in his track record. Anyone can put up a .WX on social media, create sites, or apps and "forecast." And, models and ensembles have virtually no skill at the lead time involved. Finally, there's no verification of past claims. The reason I ask, is because he is wrong when it comes to early spring (the transitional period) and Greenland blocking. For both the first and second halves of March (late winter/eaely spring transition), Greenland blocking results in cooler conditions in the East. Getting the basics wrong is a red flag. I am not suggesting right now that March will be cold or warm. I am focusing on the narrower point that Greenland blocking leads to a colder March outcome, not a warmer one. Exactly. Sadly nowadays even a degree doesn’t mean much. It is very hard to “fail” someone out of a degree these days. There is so much “support” to help even the weakest minds through. Failing at the basics while still earning a science degree is very much achievable now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: This is the worst map I have ever seen. Everything about it is wrong. Its probably a map created by AI where the prompter asked for a map showing a warm transition It's the only explanation. There is absolutely no meteorology behind this map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said: Exactly. Sadly nowadays even a degree doesn’t mean much. It is very hard to “fail” someone out of a degree these days. There is so much “support” to help even the weakest minds through. Failing at the basics while still earning a science degree is very much achievable now. and setting up a FB page and website and promoting yourself as an expert and getting people to pay you for your services is even easier ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Exactly. Sadly nowadays even a degree doesn’t mean much. It is very hard to “fail” someone out of a degree these days. There is so much “support” to help even the weakest minds through. Failing at the basics while still earning a science degree is very much achievable now. That's quite worrisome, especially when it comes to science. Science is truly at the cutting edge of knowledge creation and, if expertise is watered down, it will have an adverse impact on that outcome. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: How is this evidence of anything? At least the colors are pretty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: RGEM GFS and NAM have 1-2 inches just north of NYC tomorrow night Looks like rain only NYC/LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I'm interested in his track record. Anyone can put up a .WX on social media, create sites, or apps and "forecast." And, models and ensembles have virtually no skill at the lead time involved. Finally, there's no verification of past claims. The reason I ask, is because he is wrong when it comes to early spring (the transitional period) and Greenland blocking. For both the first and second halves of March (late winter/eaely spring transition), Greenland blocking results in cooler conditions in the East. Getting the basics wrong is a red flag. I am not suggesting right now that March will be cold or warm. I am focusing on the narrower point that Greenland blocking leads to a colder March outcome, not a warmer one. Greenland blocking is usually warm East/cold West in March. I thought it was some time in late April or May that it flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 58 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Boring weather followed by a rain threat Monday…. Really thought things were gonna be different after the January storm Welcome to an average winter. The winters of 00s and 10s are long gone. I just hope we do get rain, we need it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 18 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Exactly. Sadly nowadays even a degree doesn’t mean much. It is very hard to “fail” someone out of a degree these days. There is so much “support” to help even the weakest minds through. Failing at the basics while still earning a science degree is very much achievable now. young men are failing out of school like crazy. i know lots of them. hence the efforts to stem the flow. my friend's daughter is in med school and can practically count the males on one hand......seeing it across the board in many professions. my son finished his masters and he was the only man in his whole cohort, in a science degree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Euro ai continues to be way south for Presidents’ Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Euro ai continues to be way south for Presidents’ Day Next weekends event is not set in stone - amazing how many are assuming its just going to be plain rain........ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Next weekends event is not set in stone - amazing how many are assuming its just going to be plain rain........ been awhile since we even had plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I have to remind myself the average splits at MMU are roughly 38/24 and increasing. Going down to 10 again tonight. With a well timed system we can clean up. Let’s see if we can land one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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