February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[nycwinter]

already in nyc  road salt and melting snow have caused blackouts for some customers in brooklyn a few times last 10 days..

[NEG NAO]

12Z Canadian strong blocking - models are beginning to agree that this won't cut

[donsutherland1]

 

Negativity bias is real. People often assume that their "crystal ball" is clearer at longer lead times when adverse outcomes (e.g., lack of snowfall) are involved. Psychologically, people tend to give greater weight to negative outcomes than positive ones. Those threats appear clearer or more certain, because they generate stronger cognitive or emotional reaction. In reality, the extended range forecasts showing a bleak outcome for snowfall are no more or less likely to verify than those that show a lot of snowfall at similar ranges. Guidance beyond 10 days has a sharp falloff in skill.

Having said that, the frequency of days with significant (6" or above) snowfall declines in New York City, especially after mid-March. Moreover, just over one-in-four years (26.8%) saw no measurable snowfall during February 15-28 but only 3.1% of years (1878, 1925, 2002, 2012, 2020) saw no measurable snowfall from February 15 to the end of snow season. At the current lead time, it is premature to assume that Winter 2025-2026 has seen its last measurable snowfall. 

[lee59]

Looks like the Hudson is almost completely full of ice even down to the city.

https://www.portnywebcam.com/

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I have almost 31” for the season so I can’t call that a disappointment (even if it’s a little below normal for the season still) but it would be a major bummer still if we strike out on snow from here on out. Pretty confident though we can still get enough together to make it above average. Central Park is further away from normal 21”, it might be tough getting them to near 30” even though a couple events were undermeasured. 

The forcing shifting east of the Dateline in late January allowing the STJ to become more dominant for a week put most of the major stations close to the coast near or over 25” which is a great outcome for this 2020s climate.

The long range guidance sustains the present forcing west of the Dateline into mid-March. So it looks like more of a split flow or Northern Stream dominant storm track pattern which could allow for a smaller or maybe even moderate snowfall event before the end of the season.

But probably not a STJ dominant pattern that can produce another widespread 10”+ benchmark NESIS event near the coast. Hoping the spots that are still under 25” can get just enough so they can make it to 25”+.
 

CT

IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT

WBAN

34.4

 

NY

UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK

COOP

29.8

 

NY

ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP

WBAN

28.6

 

NJ

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP

WBAN

25.3

 

NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE

COOP

24.5

 

[The 4 Seasons]

On 2/7/2026 at 1:42 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Last I saw SE CT had 13.

who had 13 in SECT? must have been tossed

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

How many times this meteorological winter will we say with confidence that this time there’s no way it’s going to snow meaningfully again looking out beyond ten days, only for a new threat to materialize immediately after.

not many? it's a small sample, i'll admit. but we'r e not getting any moisture at all lately.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

There have been many snowstorms in March,some blizzards. Yes you can get temps in the 70's but the next day it can snow..March has always been that type of month here

The way some people classify March is almost comical. In many parts of the forum average temperatures in early March are still below freezing. To call it a spring month, even though I know it's part of Met Spring, is misleading unless you're referencing late March in the southern portions of the forum. Of course it can snow in April in any part of the forum. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

who had 13 in SECT? must have been tossed

For the season? No possible way that could be correct.

[The 4 Seasons]

On 2/7/2026 at 8:25 AM, nycsnow said:

Southern RI might get 12+

They did, 14.2 in Kingston, RI cocorahs. With many reports 11-12"

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

For the season? No possible way that could be correct.

i think he meant for the storm lol. Westerly got 11.6" and there was a Voluntown 4SW report of 10.8 but thats the only report i saw over 10 in CT. 

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

For the season? No possible way that could be correct.

i think he meant for the storm lol. Westerly got 11.6" and there was a Voluntown 4SW report of 10.8 but thats the only report i saw over 10 in CT. 

How much did you get for the Jan 6-7th event? and @IrishRob17 what was your total for Jan 6-7th

I have like hardly any reports for Orange County, besides a few

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z Canadian strong blocking - models are beginning to agree that this won't cut

We are talking about next Monday. We should be using ensembles at this range not operational runs 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

We are talking about next Monday. We should be using ensembles at this range not operational runs 

than post some 

[Monty]

Two years ago I had snowdrops blooming 2nd week of February. This year I just have snow. I like this better 

[weatherpruf]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

 

Negativity bias is real. People often assume that their "crystal ball" is clearer at longer lead times when adverse outcomes (e.g., lack of snowfall) are involved. Psychologically, people tend to give greater weight to negative outcomes than positive ones. Those threats appear clearer or more certain, because they generate stronger cognitive or emotional reaction. In reality, the extended range forecasts showing a bleak outcome for snowfall are no more or less likely to verify than those that show a lot of snowfall at similar ranges. Guidance beyond 10 days has a sharp falloff in skill.

Having said that, the frequency of days with significant (6" or above) snowfall declines in New York City, especially after mid-March. Moreover, just over one-in-four years (26.8%) saw no measurable snowfall during February 15-28 but only 3.1% of years (1878, 1925, 2002, 2012, 2020) saw no measurable snowfall from February 15 to the end of snow season. At the current lead time, it is premature to assume that Winter 2025-2026 has seen its last measurable snowfall. 

research shows that negative people have better outcomes than positive people, who tend to think that mole is nothing or that blood in the stool is just a hemorrhoid...of course, the weather is an independent variable

[IrishRob17]

24 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i think he meant for the storm lol. Westerly got 11.6" and there was a Voluntown 4SW report of 10.8 but thats the only report i saw over 10 in CT. 

How much did you get for the Jan 6-7th event? and @IrishRob17 what was your total for Jan 6-7th

I have like hardly any reports for Orange County, besides a few

I don't see anything for then, my notes have  .3" on 1/4 and .1" on 1/5. 

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I don't see anything for then, my notes have  .3" on 1/4 and .1" on 1/5. 

sorry that was a typo, the storm that just happened Feb 6-7

@CPcantmeasuresnow

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

53 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i think he meant for the storm lol. Westerly got 11.6" and there was a Voluntown 4SW report of 10.8 but thats the only report i saw over 10 in CT. 

How much did you get for the Jan 6-7th event? and @IrishRob17 what was your total for Jan 6-7th

I have like hardly any reports for Orange County, besides a few

@The 4 SeasonsI assume you meant the Feb 6-7. I had 1.1 inches and I think I was pretty much the high area for Orange County from other reports I've seen.

[wthrmn654]

Mount Holly radar still down wow! Must be really really really broke

 

EQUIPMENT...
The Fort Dix radar (KDIX) remains out of service through
Tuesday and perhaps longer depending on how quickly replacement
parts arrive.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I assume you meant the Feb 6-7. I had 1.1 inches and I think I was pretty much the high area for Orange County from other reports I've seen.

yea theres nothing over an inch so you're gonna stick out but ill include it of course if you think its right

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

yea theres nothing over an inch so you're gonna stick out but ill include it of course if you think its right

There was so much blowing it's hard to say for 100% but I did take it in a couple of secluded areas that I had cleared and it was definitely over 3/4 of an inch. I've been thinking of revising it to 0.8 just because I haven't seen any other reports over an inch.

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

There was so much blowing it's hard to say for 100% but I did take it in a couple of secluded areas that I had cleared and it was definitely over 3/4 of an inch. I've been thinking of revising it to 0.8 just because I haven't seen any other reports over an inch.

id change it to 0.8, ill add it in

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

id change it to 0.8, ill add it in

Done

[MarcmmKU]

3 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

After all this we are going to put a near goose egg in the snowfall books for February? Is this really unfolding in front of us?

Got to hope the cold returns late February.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

who had 13 in SECT? must have been tossed

Likely. 

[IrishRob17]

43 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

sorry that was a typo, the storm that just happened Feb 6-7

@CPcantmeasuresnow

Ah, only .4" for me this weekend.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Ah, only .4" for me this weekend.

thanks, just in time

[nycsnow]

Yikes

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Yikes

better than 00Z, models are all over the place with this one right now. A south strung out whiff appears more likely on the table imo than anything. AI has been consistently on the south train for a while, at this range we're gonna see a lot of shifting on ops for the next few days.