weatherpruf Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: After all this we are going to put a near goose egg in the snowfall books for February? Is this really unfolding in front of us? it is looking that way. frankly, i'm sick of the frigid air and salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 49 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: Straight out of the 70s and 80s winters we had more rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: We lost the snowy pattern back in late January. December was very unusual in that it was the first time we had two 4-8” clippers over such a short stretch for the month. It was the perfect 500mb pattern for maxing out the Northern Stream snowfall potential. That pattern shifted in January which opened the door to our first widespread benchmark 10”+ snowstorm since 2022 as the forcing shifted east of the Dateline allowing the STJ to become active for a week. The only time our area had multiple 10”+ snowstorms under 7 days apart was in February 1994. So that 2nd event which brought record snows to the Carolinas statistically would have been tough to pull off since we need more time for NESIS snowstorm patterns to reload here. While we could have more accumulating snow before the season ends, this faster split flow regime probably won’t be able produce another widespread 10”+ benchmark event near the coast here. I have almost 31” for the season so I can’t call that a disappointment (even if it’s a little below normal for the season still) but it would be a major bummer still if we strike out on snow from here on out. Pretty confident though we can still get enough together to make it above average. Central Park is further away from normal 21”, it might be tough getting them to near 30” even though a couple events were undermeasured. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Storm is not going to cut past the lower Ohio Valley because of all the blocking up north - it's going to be a Miller B where it reforms somewhere off the Mid- Atlantic coast and all the fine details are not obvious yet more questions than answers at the moment . As for Steve he has a knack for busts in his forecast just like many others online - not that there is anything wrong with that . if there is one guy i wouldn't put much stock into, it is this guy. i've seen him hold onto forecasts when it was obvious he was wrong, and most others had abandoned ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Bright sunshine and to 22 here, what a difference when the winds calm ,almost shorts weather 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: if there is one guy i wouldn't put much stock into, it is this guy. i've seen him hold onto forecasts when it was obvious he was wrong, and most others had abandoned ship. But everything he says in this case makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yeah you need it by about 2/20 for it to pay any dividends. March 2018 had the SSW in mid Feb and then we had the epic month Correct. 2/21 is when winter really starts to wind down. “Prime” snow season for us is 12/20 - 2/20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: What good is a March SSWE going to do? March is a spring month. There’s always a lag of weeks between when one happens and when it affects the tropospheric pattern. Met spring starts 3/1 and astronomical spring starts on 3/20. If you want a cold, wet/rainy spring then I guess you’d root for it….. There have been many snowstorms in March,some blizzards. Yes you can get temps in the 70's but the next day it can snow..March has always been that type of month here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: I don't think we'll be completely shut out How many times this meteorological winter will we say with confidence that this time there’s no way it’s going to snow meaningfully again looking out beyond ten days, only for a new threat to materialize immediately after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: it is looking that way. frankly, i'm sick of the frigid air and salt. Roads around here are not blacktop anymore - they are grey/whitetop - pothole season right around the corner.......... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Roads around here are not blacktop anymore - they are grey/whitetop - pothole season right around the corner.......... I wouldn't mind if 2/15-16 is a driving rainstorm to wash it all away 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 already in nyc road salt and melting snow have caused blackouts for some customers in brooklyn a few times last 10 days.. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12Z Canadian strong blocking - models are beginning to agree that this won't cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Negativity bias is real. People often assume that their "crystal ball" is clearer at longer lead times when adverse outcomes (e.g., lack of snowfall) are involved. Psychologically, people tend to give greater weight to negative outcomes than positive ones. Those threats appear clearer or more certain, because they generate stronger cognitive or emotional reaction. In reality, the extended range forecasts showing a bleak outcome for snowfall are no more or less likely to verify than those that show a lot of snowfall at similar ranges. Guidance beyond 10 days has a sharp falloff in skill. Having said that, the frequency of days with significant (6" or above) snowfall declines in New York City, especially after mid-March. Moreover, just over one-in-four years (26.8%) saw no measurable snowfall during February 15-28 but only 3.1% of years (1878, 1925, 2002, 2012, 2020) saw no measurable snowfall from February 15 to the end of snow season. At the current lead time, it is premature to assume that Winter 2025-2026 has seen its last measurable snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Looks like the Hudson is almost completely full of ice even down to the city. https://www.portnywebcam.com/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: I have almost 31” for the season so I can’t call that a disappointment (even if it’s a little below normal for the season still) but it would be a major bummer still if we strike out on snow from here on out. Pretty confident though we can still get enough together to make it above average. Central Park is further away from normal 21”, it might be tough getting them to near 30” even though a couple events were undermeasured. The forcing shifting east of the Dateline in late January allowing the STJ to become more dominant for a week put most of the major stations close to the coast near or over 25” which is a great outcome for this 2020s climate. The long range guidance sustains the present forcing west of the Dateline into mid-March. So it looks like more of a split flow or Northern Stream dominant storm track pattern which could allow for a smaller or maybe even moderate snowfall event before the end of the season. But probably not a STJ dominant pattern that can produce another widespread 10”+ benchmark NESIS event near the coast. Hoping the spots that are still under 25” can get just enough so they can make it to 25”+. CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 34.4 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 29.8 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 28.6 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 25.3 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 24.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 On 2/7/2026 at 1:42 PM, EastonSN+ said: Last I saw SE CT had 13. who had 13 in SECT? must have been tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said: How many times this meteorological winter will we say with confidence that this time there’s no way it’s going to snow meaningfully again looking out beyond ten days, only for a new threat to materialize immediately after. not many? it's a small sample, i'll admit. but we'r e not getting any moisture at all lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, WX-PA said: There have been many snowstorms in March,some blizzards. Yes you can get temps in the 70's but the next day it can snow..March has always been that type of month here The way some people classify March is almost comical. In many parts of the forum average temperatures in early March are still below freezing. To call it a spring month, even though I know it's part of Met Spring, is misleading unless you're referencing late March in the southern portions of the forum. Of course it can snow in April in any part of the forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: who had 13 in SECT? must have been tossed For the season? No possible way that could be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 On 2/7/2026 at 8:25 AM, nycsnow said: Southern RI might get 12+ They did, 14.2 in Kingston, RI cocorahs. With many reports 11-12" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: For the season? No possible way that could be correct. i think he meant for the storm lol. Westerly got 11.6" and there was a Voluntown 4SW report of 10.8 but thats the only report i saw over 10 in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: For the season? No possible way that could be correct. i think he meant for the storm lol. Westerly got 11.6" and there was a Voluntown 4SW report of 10.8 but thats the only report i saw over 10 in CT. How much did you get for the Jan 6-7th event? and @IrishRob17 what was your total for Jan 6-7th I have like hardly any reports for Orange County, besides a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z Canadian strong blocking - models are beginning to agree that this won't cut We are talking about next Monday. We should be using ensembles at this range not operational runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: We are talking about next Monday. We should be using ensembles at this range not operational runs than post some 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Two years ago I had snowdrops blooming 2nd week of February. This year I just have snow. I like this better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Negativity bias is real. People often assume that their "crystal ball" is clearer at longer lead times when adverse outcomes (e.g., lack of snowfall) are involved. Psychologically, people tend to give greater weight to negative outcomes than positive ones. Those threats appear clearer or more certain, because they generate stronger cognitive or emotional reaction. In reality, the extended range forecasts showing a bleak outcome for snowfall are no more or less likely to verify than those that show a lot of snowfall at similar ranges. Guidance beyond 10 days has a sharp falloff in skill. Having said that, the frequency of days with significant (6" or above) snowfall declines in New York City, especially after mid-March. Moreover, just over one-in-four years (26.8%) saw no measurable snowfall during February 15-28 but only 3.1% of years (1878, 1925, 2002, 2012, 2020) saw no measurable snowfall from February 15 to the end of snow season. At the current lead time, it is premature to assume that Winter 2025-2026 has seen its last measurable snowfall. research shows that negative people have better outcomes than positive people, who tend to think that mole is nothing or that blood in the stool is just a hemorrhoid...of course, the weather is an independent variable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 24 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: i think he meant for the storm lol. Westerly got 11.6" and there was a Voluntown 4SW report of 10.8 but thats the only report i saw over 10 in CT. How much did you get for the Jan 6-7th event? and @IrishRob17 what was your total for Jan 6-7th I have like hardly any reports for Orange County, besides a few I don't see anything for then, my notes have .3" on 1/4 and .1" on 1/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I don't see anything for then, my notes have .3" on 1/4 and .1" on 1/5. sorry that was a typo, the storm that just happened Feb 6-7 @CPcantmeasuresnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 53 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: i think he meant for the storm lol. Westerly got 11.6" and there was a Voluntown 4SW report of 10.8 but thats the only report i saw over 10 in CT. How much did you get for the Jan 6-7th event? and @IrishRob17 what was your total for Jan 6-7th I have like hardly any reports for Orange County, besides a few @The 4 SeasonsI assume you meant the Feb 6-7. I had 1.1 inches and I think I was pretty much the high area for Orange County from other reports I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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