February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[MJO812]

Archambault event

Buckle up

[nycsnow]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Archambault event

Buckle up

So close for us down here. 

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

color me skeptical

yes` 12Z misses to south

[NEG NAO]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Archambault event

Buckle up

Heather Archambault 

About me:

http://www.met.nps.edu/~hmarcham/images/me.jpg

In September 2011, I began a postdoc with Profs. Pat Harr and Rich Moore in the Department of Meteorology at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA.

Before coming to NPS, I earned my Ph.D. and M.S. in Atmospheric Science from the University at Albany, where I was advised by Profs. Dan Keyser and Lance Bosart. My Ph.D. dissertation on the downstream extratropical flow response to recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones can be accessed here.

For my M.S. thesis, I examined statistical and synoptic-dynamic relationships between major cool-season Northeast precipitation events and North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific–North American regime transitions. Two journal articles describing this work are available here and here.

I received a B.S. in Meteorology from Penn State University.

My research interests span a variety of topics in synoptic–dynamic meteorology. I am especially interested in the dynamics and predictabilty of tropical–extratropical interactions that serve as precursors to remote high-impact weather events such as heat waves, severe weather outbreaks, or winter storms.

In my free time, I like to hike, bike, experience California's microclimates, listen to or attempt to make music, spend time in cafes (especially for brunch), watch anything featuring anyone from the "The State", play or watch basketball, pore over the New York Times online, travel, see movies, and spend time with family.

[MarcmmKU]

I think next week's storm is either and interior event, or suppressed too far south.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think next week's storm is either and interior event, or suppressed too far south.

I would like to know how you came to that conclusion...

[MarcmmKU]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

I would like to know how you came to that conclusion...

Generally miller B's either get too amped and become a SWFE which favor new england, or they get too flat and suppressed and start favoring delmarva. Our region is almost never favored by them!

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Generally miller B's either get too amped and become a SWFE which favor new england, or they get too flat and suppressed and start favoring delmarva. Our region is almost never favored by them!

I'll pass on turning your theory into a pissing contest debate..........

[RU848789]

Looks like every global Op/AI is showing a significant storm around 2/15-16, but the AI's are both quite warm, which is concerning (especially the AIFS, which has been so good), while the others are mostly rain for 95/coast or have most of the precip too far south, but not far from much better, either. Certaily enough to keep me interested.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like every global Op/AI is showing a significant storm around 2/15-16, but the AI's are both quite warm, which is concerning (especially the AIFS, which has been so good), while the others are mostly rain for 95/coast or have most of the precip too far south, but not far from much better, either. Certaily enough to keep me interested.

In other words it's way too early to come to any conclusions about that potential

[deathstar9]

17 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think next week's storm is either and interior event, or suppressed too far south.

A Feb 5 2001 type storm would be amazing.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like every global Op/AI is showing a significant storm around 2/15-16, but the AI's are both quite warm, which is concerning (especially the AIFS, which has been so good), while the others are mostly rain for 95/coast or have most of the precip too far south, but not far from much better, either. Certaily enough to keep me interested.

Cold source is dwindling by the time the storm occurs. It would be a thread the needle event if it does happen. 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, deathstar9 said:

A Feb 5 2001 type storm would be amazing.

Snow storm, February 5, 2001 - Storm Summary

[donsutherland1]

Some photos from this morning. 

 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, deathstar9 said:

A Feb 5 2001 type storm would be amazing.

Took me 5 hours to drive 10 miles home from work. It was such a heavy wet snow

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Cold source is dwindling by the time the storm occurs. It would be a thread the needle event if it does happen. 

I doubt it.  We still have blocking. Its not thread the needle.

[MJO812]

Courtesy of 33andrain

[MJO812]

[MarcmmKU]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Courtesy of 33andrain

Quite a bit of spread. We can start paying attention to operationals by wednesday perhaps. I'm not thrilled about the garbage pacific though. Would need the good atlantic to carry the storm.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, MarcmmKU said:

Quite a bit of spread. We can start paying attention to operationals by wednesday perhaps. I'm not thrilled about the garbage pacific though. Would need the good atlantic to carry the storm.

We need a negative PNA to get moisture up here unless you like suppression.

[MANDA]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some photos from this morning. 

 

Great photos Don. Thanks!

[MarcmmKU]

Just now, MJO812 said:

We need a negative PNA to get moisture up here unless you like suppression.

Negative PNA is like playing with fire. Can easily cut too much with it. I'd rather have +PNA and risk suppression. Historically the big ones all had +PNA too.

[MJO812]

Just now, MarcmmKU said:

Negative PNA is like playing with fire. Can easily cut too much with it. I'd rather have +PNA and risk suppression. Historically the big ones all had +PNA too.

We should be fine as long as the PNA isnt deeply negative which it will not be.

[MJO812]

Common theme all winter

[deathstar9]

25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Took me 5 hours to drive 10 miles home from work. It was such a heavy wet snow

It was incredible, 13” in 4 hours (16.5” total) with a stiff 15-20 mph wind - gusts to 30.  9 to 1 type density.  Very high impact.  Lots of schools were in session that day with kids basically trapped.

Wide spread 20-30+ a bit further inland.

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Negative PNA is like playing with fire. Can easily cut too much with it. I'd rather have +PNA and risk suppression. Historically the big ones all had +PNA too.

Things change during the second half of February as wave lengths shorten. Since 1950, 75% of NYC's  February 15 or later 10" or above snowstorms had a PNA-.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Things change during the second half of February as wave lengths shorten. Since 1950, 75% of NYC's  February 15 or later 10" or above snowstorms had a PNA-.

Shorter wavelengths defintely help

[Nibor]

 

Snowman19 waiting for a Metfan post to weenie. 

[donsutherland1]

January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20° in Central Park. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982.

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Retreating high pressure. Never good

Of course it's a week away so we can hope that the high pressure won't be retreating as much as the current models show. Euro right now is showing a front end of a few inches and then a mix changing to rain. The position of the high pressure will be critical and we have a long way to go to figure that out.